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There are two major trends at this moment in the election and British politics generally: Keir Starmer is on track to become prime minister after 4 July, buttressed by a very significant Labour majority. In fact, so sure am I of this, that I see no issue in declaring — as a statement of fact — a Labour victory as inevitable. (Non-postal) votes are yet to be cast, of course; but why not state what we all realise implicitly, explicitly?
The second development relates to the Conservative Party’s political implosion, which has only been expedited by the prime minister’s decision to call an “early” poll. (“Early” relative to expectations, not the passage of the last parliament — which had long since entered “zombie” status by the time Sunak stepped onto Downing Street that fateful May day).
As such, coverage of the election has been somewhat lopsided: with what many see as an outsized focus on the Conservative Party’s travails, at the expense of Labour’s plans for government. I think there’s a pretty simple explanation for this. Journalists obsess over story developments: and definitionally, Keir Starmer’s victory can’t get any more “inevitable”. But the Conservative Party’s political difficulties can get worse — oh, so much worse.
(Logically, the Conservative Party can continue to plunge the political depths until it is projected to win zero seats — in parliamentary terms at least.)
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So what’s the latest in Conservative implosion news? Well, this morning a Tory spokesperson announced that the party was withdrawing its support for Craig Williams and Laura Saunders amid a row over bets placed on the date of the general election.
This is the relevant detail: Williams, who served as Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, is seeking re-election in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. Last week, he admitted he “put a flutter” on a July poll three days before the PM called the election.
Saunders is standing in Bristol North West. Her husband, Tony Lee, served as the Conservative director of campaigning but has now taken a “leave of absence” while he is also investigated. It’s too late for Saunders and Williams to be scrubbed off the ballot paper in their respective constituencies; but the change of tack today is significant nonetheless.
After all, the reason this is a political mess for Sunak is because he — and a series of loyal ministers — have in recent days stood steadfastly by the line that the party wouldn’t suspend Williams or Saunders until the Gambling Commission reports. In total, it’s been 13 days since Williams first revealed he “put a flutter” on a summer election — and only now does the Conservative Party meaningfully act.
It’s a problem, too, because the prime minister has fallen behind the narrative on the gambling scandal. Among those within Sunak’s party to have publicly called for CCHQ to suspend Williams and Saunders before the U-turn this morning were: former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, former defence minister Tobias Ellwood and current Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker. There will have been many more Conservatives making the case behind the scenes, not wanting to feed the political furore. (Buckland, Ellwood and Baker tend to be pretty noisy at the best of times).
Ultimately, the climbdown this morning is the latest dire phase of the political catastrophe termed “Gamble-gate” — think “Paterson-gate” and “Party-gate”. And by acting today so belatedly, Sunak has ensured the scandal will dominate even more conversations between now and 4 July.
Now, think some more about Paterson-gate and Party-gate — because today’s scandal follows the exact same excruciating pattern. “Paterson-gate” saw then-PM Boris Johnson defend Tory MP Owen Paterson from punishment for repeatedly breaking lobbying rules before ultimately backtracking and accepting he was wrong to do so. The development of “Party-gate” is so etched into Britain’s political consciousness, I suppose, that it doesn’t bear reiterating.
Sure, “Gamble-gate” has developed over a shorter stretch than its scandalous precursors but, as I have written before, politics happens faster in elections: scrutiny is more intense and less forgiving. The story, as such, is the same: the Conservative Party has once again adopted an untenable line, repeated it constantly, and then — under the weight of political pressure — rowed back on it.
In the end, the consistency of the Conservative Party’s inconsistency — from Johnson through to Sunak — is impossible to ignore.
For the PM today, as with his predecessor-but-one, the act of implicating loyal ministers in a political mess of one’s own making is especially dire — and a feature of every recent -gate. Forcing ministers, touring the media studios to highlight some new policy, to adopt a line that subsequently changes is, frankly, bad leadership. It is a good way to make loyal ministers act a little less loyally in the long run; and, in an election, it’s a great way to depress an already ailing campaign.
Forgive me then, if I tell you what I really think for a second:
It is nothing short of journalistic cliché to refer to Rishi Sunak as “bad” at politics. But the prime minister isn’t merely “bad” at politics — he is mind-bendingly, excruciatingly, captivatingly hopeless at it. “Gamble-gate” is the latest, most politically potent, case in point.
— Labour leader Keir Starmer reacts to the news the Tory candidates involved in the betting scandal are having their support withdrawn.
‘Tories in election retreat as resources diverted to defend ministers’ seats’
The Guardian reports.
‘Jeremy Corbyn: Labour MPs secretly want me to win’
The former Labour leader speaks to the Telegraph. (Paywall)
‘Labour supporters are canvassing for Lib Dems to push tactical voting’
PoliticsHome reports on the rise of “tactical campaigning”.
The post ‘Gamble-gate’ U-turn shows Rishi Sunak hasn’t learnt a thing as PM appeared first on Politics.co.uk.
There are two major trends at this moment in the election and British politics generally: Keir Starmer is on track to become prime minister after 4 July, buttressed by a very significant Labour majority. In fact, so sure am I of this, that I see no issue in declaring — as a statement of fact — a Labour victory as inevitable. (Non-postal) votes are yet to be cast, of course; but why not state what we all realise implicitly, explicitly?
The second development relates to the Conservative Party’s political implosion, which has only been expedited by the prime minister’s decision to call an “early” poll. (“Early” relative to expectations, not the passage of the last parliament — which had long since entered “zombie” status by the time Sunak stepped onto Downing Street that fateful May day).
As such, coverage of the election has been somewhat lopsided: with what many see as an outsized focus on the Conservative Party’s travails, at the expense of Labour’s plans for government. I think there’s a pretty simple explanation for this. Journalists obsess over story developments: and definitionally, Keir Starmer’s victory can’t get any more “inevitable”. But the Conservative Party’s political difficulties can get worse — oh, so much worse.
(Logically, the Conservative Party can continue to plunge the political depths until it is projected to win zero seats — in parliamentary terms at least.)
***Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest election news and analysis.***
So what’s the latest in Conservative implosion news? Well, this morning a Tory spokesperson announced that the party was withdrawing its support for Craig Williams and Laura Saunders amid a row over bets placed on the date of the general election.
This is the relevant detail: Williams, who served as Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, is seeking re-election in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. Last week, he admitted he “put a flutter” on a July poll three days before the PM called the election.
Saunders is standing in Bristol North West. Her husband, Tony Lee, served as the Conservative director of campaigning but has now taken a “leave of absence” while he is also investigated. It’s too late for Saunders and Williams to be scrubbed off the ballot paper in their respective constituencies; but the change of tack today is significant nonetheless.
After all, the reason this is a political mess for Sunak is because he — and a series of loyal ministers — have in recent days stood steadfastly by the line that the party wouldn’t suspend Williams or Saunders until the Gambling Commission reports. In total, it’s been 13 days since Williams first revealed he “put a flutter” on a summer election — and only now does the Conservative Party meaningfully act.
It’s a problem, too, because the prime minister has fallen behind the narrative on the gambling scandal. Among those within Sunak’s party to have publicly called for CCHQ to suspend Williams and Saunders before the U-turn this morning were: former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, former defence minister Tobias Ellwood and current Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker. There will have been many more Conservatives making the case behind the scenes, not wanting to feed the political furore. (Buckland, Ellwood and Baker tend to be pretty noisy at the best of times).
Ultimately, the climbdown this morning is the latest dire phase of the political catastrophe termed “Gamble-gate” — think “Paterson-gate” and “Party-gate”. And by acting today so belatedly, Sunak has ensured the scandal will dominate even more conversations between now and 4 July.
Now, think some more about Paterson-gate and Party-gate — because today’s scandal follows the exact same excruciating pattern. “Paterson-gate” saw then-PM Boris Johnson defend Tory MP Owen Paterson from punishment for repeatedly breaking lobbying rules before ultimately backtracking and accepting he was wrong to do so. The development of “Party-gate” is so etched into Britain’s political consciousness, I suppose, that it doesn’t bear reiterating.
Sure, “Gamble-gate” has developed over a shorter stretch than its scandalous precursors but, as I have written before, politics happens faster in elections: scrutiny is more intense and less forgiving. The story, as such, is the same: the Conservative Party has once again adopted an untenable line, repeated it constantly, and then — under the weight of political pressure — rowed back on it.
In the end, the consistency of the Conservative Party’s inconsistency — from Johnson through to Sunak — is impossible to ignore.
For the PM today, as with his predecessor-but-one, the act of implicating loyal ministers in a political mess of one’s own making is especially dire — and a feature of every recent -gate. Forcing ministers, touring the media studios to highlight some new policy, to adopt a line that subsequently changes is, frankly, bad leadership. It is a good way to make loyal ministers act a little less loyally in the long run; and, in an election, it’s a great way to depress an already ailing campaign.
Forgive me then, if I tell you what I really think for a second:
It is nothing short of journalistic cliché to refer to Rishi Sunak as “bad” at politics. But the prime minister isn’t merely “bad” at politics — he is mind-bendingly, excruciatingly, captivatingly hopeless at it. “Gamble-gate” is the latest, most politically potent, case in point.
Lunchtime briefing
Lunchtime soundbite
— Labour leader Keir Starmer reacts to the news the Tory candidates involved in the betting scandal are having their support withdrawn.
Now try this…
‘Tories in election retreat as resources diverted to defend ministers’ seats’
The Guardian reports.
‘Jeremy Corbyn: Labour MPs secretly want me to win’
The former Labour leader speaks to the Telegraph. (Paywall)
‘Labour supporters are canvassing for Lib Dems to push tactical voting’
PoliticsHome reports on the rise of “tactical campaigning”.
On this day in 2021:
The post ‘Gamble-gate’ U-turn shows Rishi Sunak hasn’t learnt a thing as PM appeared first on Politics.co.uk.