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Brexit may have begun but it is not over, indeed it may never be finished.

As Trump's support among Republicans softens, DeSantis poised to capitalize

Brexiter

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Donald Trump has a question for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. "Why won't he just say he's not going to run against me?" Trump has reportedly griped to his allies about DeSantis' lack of deference.

The answer is likely two-fold: 1) DeSantis appears to be as big a narcissist as Trump; 2) he's been reading Trump's polling.

Fresh polling from NBC News shows Trump may be on his shakiest ground yet, hitting an all-time low in the survey among conservatives who say they identify more as a "supporter of Donald Trump" than a "supporter of the Republican Party."

The poll found just 36% of respondents chose Trump, while a 56% majority chose the Republican Party. One year ago, Trump and the GOP tied at 46% each, and for most of 2020, Trump generally hovered a little over or under 50%.

Since January 2019, NBC has been asking Republicans and GOP leaners the question: Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party? Before this month, Trump had never fallen below 40%. Here's several points of comparison over the last couple years:

36%56%
43%50%
46%46%
52%38%
52%38%
51%38%

Republicans/Republican Leaners, per NBC News poll

Date Supporter of Trump Supporter of GOP

1/2022
10/2021
1/2021
6/2020
6/2019
1/2019

Civiqs polling also suggests Trump is seeing a softening of support among conservative voters. As I wrote earlier this week, Trump's favorables with Republicans and independents have been tapering over the past year. Among Republican voters, Trump had a 90% favorability rating just before the Jan. 6 insurrection, whereas he's currently at 84%.

The bottom line here is that Trump has vulnerabilities, and DeSantis appears to be feeling his oats. Things are about to get interesting as Trump faces down a younger version of himself.
 
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