New York's bipartisan redistricting commission approved a new congressional map in a 9-1 vote on Thursday that makes only modest changes to the court-drawn map that was used in 2022.
The heavily Democratic legislature must approve the map before it can take effect, but lawmakers have the option to reject the proposal and draw their own map. Currently, it's uncertain what Democrats will do, and the legislature isn't set to return to session until Feb. 26.
However, state Sen. Mike Gianaris, who leads the Senate on redistricting issues, said that lawmakers were prepared to act swiftly if needed. One Senate Democrat, James Skoufis, already expressed his opposition to the maps, calling them a “disgrace.” And Jay Jacobs, the chair of the state Democratic Party and a close ally of Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, warned of “serious concerns being raised” about the new districts, noting that former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who was the GOP’s nominee for governor in 2022, came out in support of the maps.
The new map makes notable changes to just three upstate districts, all of which Joe Biden carried. One incumbent from each party would get a more favorable seat, while one vulnerable Republican would see his district get bluer. No other competitive districts would see any meaningful adjustments.
Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan's 18th District in the Hudson Valley, which backed Biden by a 53-45 margin, would shift to a 55-44 Biden win, according to data from Dave's Redistricting App. Directly to the north, freshman Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro's 19th District would shrink from 51-47 Biden to just 50-48 Biden. And in the Syracuse area, first-term GOP Rep. Brandon Williams' 22nd District would move a few points to the left, from 53-45 Biden to 55-43 Biden, which would boost Democratic chances against him.
Nationwide, Republicans have gerrymandered three times as many districts as Democrats have, and late last year, the GOP enacted an extreme new gerrymander in North Carolina that will net the party three to four seats. As a counterbalance, some Democrats therefore want New York to adopt a map that strongly favors their party, but the commission's map falls far short of that goal.
If adopted, this new map may not provide Democrats much benefit in 2024 at all. Molinaro was already facing a rematch against well-funded Democrat Josh Riley, who lost just 51-49 in 2022, so these changes would make it tougher for Riley to win. Ryan likewise would become tougher for Republicans to defeat. As for the far-right Williams, he was already one of the most vulnerable Republicans even under the current map.
New York is redrawing its map because its highest court, the Court of Appeals, ruled in December that the map used in 2022 was meant to be only temporary. After the 2020 census, the commission failed to agree on a new congressional map, prompting lawmakers to adopt their own plan that favored Democrats. However, the Court of Appeals struck down that map in a 4-3 ruling two years ago, finding that, because the commission never sent a second proposal to the legislature as contemplated by the state constitution, lawmakers lacked the power to draft one themselves.
Instead, a lower court appointed an outside expert to draw a map that was used last cycle. Democrats argued that this map was meant to be temporary and that the commission was required to reconvene and draw a new map for 2024. A majority on the Court of Appeals agreed.
Critically, Janet DiFiore, the court's conservative-leaning chief judge who wrote the majority opinion in its 2022 ruling, subsequently resigned. DiFiore was replaced as chief by liberal Judge Rowan Wilson, who dissented in the 2022 decision, while the empty seat created by Rowan’s elevation was filled by a Hochul appointee, Caitlin Halligan.
Although Halligan recused herself from the redistricting case, Judge Dianne Renwick, who sits on an intermediate appellate court, was chosen to take her place. Renwick cast the deciding vote in favor of requiring the commission to try a second time, in a decision written by Wilson.
If lawmakers reject the commission's new proposal, Democrats could use their two-thirds supermajorities to pass their own map, which could significantly improve their chances in several key races next year. However, a 2012 statute prohibits the legislature from making changes to any commission maps that would alter a district's population by more than 2%, though Democrats could potentially amend or repeal this requirement. Any new Democratic map, however, would almost certainly spark a new round of litigation.
In particular, Republicans would be likely to once again attack such a map as a partisan gerrymander, which DiFiore's majority opinion in 2022 cited as a reason for striking down the earlier map. It's not clear, though, to what extent Wilson's court might be sympathetic to such claims.
The New York Times's Nicholas Fandos reported Thursday that Democratic insiders worried that lawmakers "had no option but to accept a plan with such broad support" from the commission but also added that legislators "are likely to face intense lobbying" from national Democrats opposed to the map.
Editor’s note: This piece has been updated to include comments from state Sen. James Skoufis and Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs expressing skepticism about the new map. It has also been updated for clarity.
The heavily Democratic legislature must approve the map before it can take effect, but lawmakers have the option to reject the proposal and draw their own map. Currently, it's uncertain what Democrats will do, and the legislature isn't set to return to session until Feb. 26.
However, state Sen. Mike Gianaris, who leads the Senate on redistricting issues, said that lawmakers were prepared to act swiftly if needed. One Senate Democrat, James Skoufis, already expressed his opposition to the maps, calling them a “disgrace.” And Jay Jacobs, the chair of the state Democratic Party and a close ally of Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, warned of “serious concerns being raised” about the new districts, noting that former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who was the GOP’s nominee for governor in 2022, came out in support of the maps.
The new map makes notable changes to just three upstate districts, all of which Joe Biden carried. One incumbent from each party would get a more favorable seat, while one vulnerable Republican would see his district get bluer. No other competitive districts would see any meaningful adjustments.
Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan's 18th District in the Hudson Valley, which backed Biden by a 53-45 margin, would shift to a 55-44 Biden win, according to data from Dave's Redistricting App. Directly to the north, freshman Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro's 19th District would shrink from 51-47 Biden to just 50-48 Biden. And in the Syracuse area, first-term GOP Rep. Brandon Williams' 22nd District would move a few points to the left, from 53-45 Biden to 55-43 Biden, which would boost Democratic chances against him.
Nationwide, Republicans have gerrymandered three times as many districts as Democrats have, and late last year, the GOP enacted an extreme new gerrymander in North Carolina that will net the party three to four seats. As a counterbalance, some Democrats therefore want New York to adopt a map that strongly favors their party, but the commission's map falls far short of that goal.
If adopted, this new map may not provide Democrats much benefit in 2024 at all. Molinaro was already facing a rematch against well-funded Democrat Josh Riley, who lost just 51-49 in 2022, so these changes would make it tougher for Riley to win. Ryan likewise would become tougher for Republicans to defeat. As for the far-right Williams, he was already one of the most vulnerable Republicans even under the current map.
New York is redrawing its map because its highest court, the Court of Appeals, ruled in December that the map used in 2022 was meant to be only temporary. After the 2020 census, the commission failed to agree on a new congressional map, prompting lawmakers to adopt their own plan that favored Democrats. However, the Court of Appeals struck down that map in a 4-3 ruling two years ago, finding that, because the commission never sent a second proposal to the legislature as contemplated by the state constitution, lawmakers lacked the power to draft one themselves.
Instead, a lower court appointed an outside expert to draw a map that was used last cycle. Democrats argued that this map was meant to be temporary and that the commission was required to reconvene and draw a new map for 2024. A majority on the Court of Appeals agreed.
Critically, Janet DiFiore, the court's conservative-leaning chief judge who wrote the majority opinion in its 2022 ruling, subsequently resigned. DiFiore was replaced as chief by liberal Judge Rowan Wilson, who dissented in the 2022 decision, while the empty seat created by Rowan’s elevation was filled by a Hochul appointee, Caitlin Halligan.
Although Halligan recused herself from the redistricting case, Judge Dianne Renwick, who sits on an intermediate appellate court, was chosen to take her place. Renwick cast the deciding vote in favor of requiring the commission to try a second time, in a decision written by Wilson.
If lawmakers reject the commission's new proposal, Democrats could use their two-thirds supermajorities to pass their own map, which could significantly improve their chances in several key races next year. However, a 2012 statute prohibits the legislature from making changes to any commission maps that would alter a district's population by more than 2%, though Democrats could potentially amend or repeal this requirement. Any new Democratic map, however, would almost certainly spark a new round of litigation.
In particular, Republicans would be likely to once again attack such a map as a partisan gerrymander, which DiFiore's majority opinion in 2022 cited as a reason for striking down the earlier map. It's not clear, though, to what extent Wilson's court might be sympathetic to such claims.
The New York Times's Nicholas Fandos reported Thursday that Democratic insiders worried that lawmakers "had no option but to accept a plan with such broad support" from the commission but also added that legislators "are likely to face intense lobbying" from national Democrats opposed to the map.
Editor’s note: This piece has been updated to include comments from state Sen. James Skoufis and Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs expressing skepticism about the new map. It has also been updated for clarity.