The newly drawn districts of an independent commission in Michigan have finally made the state legislature competitive again for Democrats. For the first time since 1984, reports The New York Times, Democrats even stand a chance of gaining a majority in the state senate.
The new anti-gerrymandering commission established by a citizen ballot initiative in 2018 included Republicans, Democrats, and independents—but no lawmakers among them.
“Michigan’s a jump ball, and this is a jump-ball map,” said Michael Li, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice, told the Times. “There’s a lot of competition in this map, which is what you would expect in a state like Michigan.”
Since 1992, Michigan Republicans have enjoyed 14 years of trifecta control of the governor's mansion, senate, and house, while Democrats have never unilaterally controlled the state government in the same time period. The GOP gerrymander in 2010 virtually ensured Democrats were locked out of legislative control even as Michigan voters have increasingly selected Democrats in statewide races over the last decade. One of the most glaring examples of the GOP gerrymander came in 2014, when Democrat Gary Peters won an open Senate seat by 13 points while the GOP claimed 27 of the state's 38 senate seats.
Today, similar to other critical swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan is helmed by a Democratic governor and executive team while Republicans maintain their stranglehold on the state legislature. But that's about to change.
Some hurdles still remain to finalizing the map, coming from both the left and right. Black voters in the Detroit metro area might object to the fact that their votes have been spread out across a wider number of districts, which will dilute their power to dictate primaries and ensure Black representation. The upside is, the metro area's state senate delegation would increase from five to nine, while its state house delegation would jump from nine to 15. Of course, all of those districts would become more competitive too.
But Republicans are likely to pose the most vehement objections to the new map.
“We are evaluating all options to take steps necessary to defend the voices silenced by this commission,” GOP spokesperson Gustavo Portela said in a statement Wednesday.
Sounds urgent.
According to the Times, even with the newly proposed maps, Republicans still have a slight advantage due to the fact that Democrats are highly concentrated in more densely populated areas.
"But the new State Senate map would create 20 seats that President Biden would have carried in 2020 and 18 that former President Donald J. Trump would have carried, giving Democrats new hopes of competitiveness," writes the Times.
The state house map would also include 20 competitive districts.
Sam Wang, director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, called the map a "quintessential success story of redistricting."
“These maps treated the two parties, Democrats and Republicans, about as fairly as you could ever imagine a map being," Wang said. "In all three cases, whoever gets the most votes statewide is likely to control the chamber or the delegation. And there’s competition in all three maps.”
But here's the best part of the story: The entire process was kicked off by a woman with zero political experience.
“I’d like to take on gerrymandering in Michigan,” Katie Fahey wrote on Facebook several days after the 2016 election. “If you’re interested in doing this as well, please let me know.”
The ballot measure that resulted from that layman inquiry ultimately triumphed in 2018 with backing from more than 61% of Michigan voters. Kudos.
The new anti-gerrymandering commission established by a citizen ballot initiative in 2018 included Republicans, Democrats, and independents—but no lawmakers among them.
“Michigan’s a jump ball, and this is a jump-ball map,” said Michael Li, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice, told the Times. “There’s a lot of competition in this map, which is what you would expect in a state like Michigan.”
Since 1992, Michigan Republicans have enjoyed 14 years of trifecta control of the governor's mansion, senate, and house, while Democrats have never unilaterally controlled the state government in the same time period. The GOP gerrymander in 2010 virtually ensured Democrats were locked out of legislative control even as Michigan voters have increasingly selected Democrats in statewide races over the last decade. One of the most glaring examples of the GOP gerrymander came in 2014, when Democrat Gary Peters won an open Senate seat by 13 points while the GOP claimed 27 of the state's 38 senate seats.
Today, similar to other critical swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan is helmed by a Democratic governor and executive team while Republicans maintain their stranglehold on the state legislature. But that's about to change.
Some hurdles still remain to finalizing the map, coming from both the left and right. Black voters in the Detroit metro area might object to the fact that their votes have been spread out across a wider number of districts, which will dilute their power to dictate primaries and ensure Black representation. The upside is, the metro area's state senate delegation would increase from five to nine, while its state house delegation would jump from nine to 15. Of course, all of those districts would become more competitive too.
But Republicans are likely to pose the most vehement objections to the new map.
“We are evaluating all options to take steps necessary to defend the voices silenced by this commission,” GOP spokesperson Gustavo Portela said in a statement Wednesday.
Sounds urgent.
According to the Times, even with the newly proposed maps, Republicans still have a slight advantage due to the fact that Democrats are highly concentrated in more densely populated areas.
"But the new State Senate map would create 20 seats that President Biden would have carried in 2020 and 18 that former President Donald J. Trump would have carried, giving Democrats new hopes of competitiveness," writes the Times.
The state house map would also include 20 competitive districts.
Sam Wang, director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, called the map a "quintessential success story of redistricting."
“These maps treated the two parties, Democrats and Republicans, about as fairly as you could ever imagine a map being," Wang said. "In all three cases, whoever gets the most votes statewide is likely to control the chamber or the delegation. And there’s competition in all three maps.”
But here's the best part of the story: The entire process was kicked off by a woman with zero political experience.
“I’d like to take on gerrymandering in Michigan,” Katie Fahey wrote on Facebook several days after the 2016 election. “If you’re interested in doing this as well, please let me know.”
The ballot measure that resulted from that layman inquiry ultimately triumphed in 2018 with backing from more than 61% of Michigan voters. Kudos.