UPDATE: Saturday, Jun 24, 2023 · 5:50:29 PM +00:00 · Jessica Sutherland
Multiple reports emerging of Prigozhin’s announcement that he’s called things off:
UPDATE: Saturday, Jun 24, 2023 · 4:25:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
At 7PM in Moscow:
It’s been less than 24 hours since Wagner leader Prigozhin indicated he would take his forces into Russia, and about 18 hours since the Kremlin responded with a call for a “criminal investigation.” All that now seems ridiculously dated. Events in Russia are moving fast.
As of 5 PM in Moscow, the forces of PMC Wagner, a mercenary force owned by a former member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, has occupied many of the offices of the government and military in Rostov-on-Don, the 10th largest city in Russia. A convoy of Wagner forces then moved to to the city of Voronezh, about halfway in the 900km journey between Rostov and Moscow. Some of those forces are now between Voronezh and Moscow with reports that led elements of the Wagner convoy have reached the Moscow region.
Russian military helicopters have been shot down. Vehicles, including possibly a civilian bus, have been blown up along Russia’s busiest highway. Fuel tanks are in flames along the route. Bridges are being blow up to slow the progress of the Wagner force. And as the mercenary convoy gets closer to Moscow it’s impossible to tell whether we’re looking at a coup in action, an attempt to decapitate Russia’s military leadership, or something even stranger.
For those who have been following these events daily, RO37 has a detailed report on the events over the last day as well as up-to-date reports on actions underway. If you’re wondering “Who is this Wagner, and why are they driving toward Moscow?” … step inside.
Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2017
Yevgeny Prigozhin is a long time associate of Putin whose connections to the Russian dictator go back to when Putin was gathering his power in Saint Petersburg. At one point Prigozhin provided catering for some of Putin’s functions, leading to the nickname “Putin’s Chef.” In 2014, he formed Wagner Group as a so-called “private military corporation” (PMC) which could operate as a mercenary force in Africa and elsewhere in support of Russian goals, without officially being a Russian military force.
In Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Wagner was allowed to recruit thousands of prisoners from Russian jails, including those who had been condemned to death. Many of these soldiers were offered freedom in exchange for serving with Wagner Group, which has reportedly caused many of them to be highly loyal to Prigozhin, even though Wagner’s tactics have been brutal.
The conflict between Prigozhin and leaders of the Russian military has been ongoing for months. Wagner forces conducted “human wave” attacks on Bakhmut, attacks that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths by throwing groups of poorly-armed mercenaries at the city one after another. Prigozhin constantly complained that his forces were being shorted on ammunition and artillery support.
In particular, Prigozhin has blamed Russian defense minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu and commander of Russian ground forces Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov for making decisions that cost the lives of his forces. This has included filming videos in front of hundreds of dead Wagner mercenaries in which he railed against the military leadership. However, it’s always been difficult to determine how much of his anger was real and how much was manufactured, considering that Wagner’s own tactics consisted of coldly sacrificing men in huge numbers to make incremental gains around Bakhmut.
On Thursday, there were multiple reports that members of the Wagner Group had contacted their families back in Russia and warned them that they might not be coming home and to “watch the news.” That was followed by Prigozhin releasing a video in which he was surrounded by rows of tarp-covered bodies which he claimed were Wagner mercenaries killed by a rocket attack from Russian forces. He then vowed that he would bring justice to the leadership of the Russian military.
There are also claims that this whole event is not simply a matter of Prigozhin versus the generals, but a more complex conspiracy involving other Russian oligarchs, but so far this is just speculation.
In the early hours of Saturday, a column of Wagner forces, complete with tanks and armored transport, crossed from Ukraine into Russia north of the city of Rostov-on-Don. At dawn, those forces moved into the streets of Rostov capturing the local police headquarters, government offices, and the southern command of the Russian military.
Wagner troops in Rostov have been given food and an apparent welcome from citizens.
How many troops are involved is open to question. Prigozhin claims to have 25,000 men in Wagner, but the actual number involved may be smaller—between 10,000 and 15,000. On the other hand, there are reports that Wagner has been joined by units of the Russian military which have turned against Shoigu and Gerasimov. So far there is little evidence that the Russian military is actually splintering.
The only clear evidence of conflict between the Russian military and the Wagner occupation force was the approach of a Russian military helicopter, which Prigozhin claimed his forces shot down. Later, a second helicopter was seen on the ground and burning outside the city.
Wagner’s forces reached the center of Rostov around 5 AM and took up positions at many of the government offices. They also dismounted their transports and swarmed the headquarters of the southern district of the Russian military.
Shortly after, a portion of the force—again, it’s hard to say how large—was seen traveling along the highway toward Voronezh and Moscow. At Voronezh, Wagner forces appear to have largely bypassed the city, with videos showing the convoy moving north toward Moscow. However, the mercenaries have reportedly captured several military facilities, including supply depots and fuel supplies. The Wagner force has moved through both border stations and checkpoints manned by local police, FSB, and Rosgvardia (national guard) forces with little or no opposition.
Some reports have put the size of the convoy headed toward Moscow at 400 vehicles. Prigozhin was seen in Rostov after the convoy was already underway, and it’s not clear if he has joined this force moving north. In the last few minutes civilians, who had gathered around Wagner forces in the center of Rostov, have been told to leave the area, which may indicate some military action is pending.
The Russian military has sent helicopters to reportedly attack the advancing column. There are videos of an explosion on the highway that seems to show a missile striking a bus, which may not have contained Wagner forces. There are other videos showing Russian air forces bombing fuel supplies that had reportedly come under the control of Wagner forces.
In Moscow, Red Square is blocked off an military checkpoints are in place across the city.
What started as what seemed like another wild claim from Prigozhin has turned into a military conflict within Russia that is threatening to destabilize the country, undermine Putin’s government, and is already generating Russian-on-Russian fighting—involving tanks, armored transports, and air forces. Whether Putin will be able to stop Prigozhin before he reaches Moscow remains an open question.
President Joe Biden has received multiple briefings as the stability of a nuclear-armed nation seems very much in doubt. It’s beginning to seem that there is a real possibility that Putin may have invaded Ukraine, and lost Russia.
In statements, Prigozhin continues to insist that this is “not a coup” and that his intention is to bring the leaders of the Russian military “to justice” for their crimes in Ukraine, chiefly related to failing to adequately supply his Wagner forces and the claimed rocket attack on Wagner troops.
Few people expected Wagner to make it this far, but with an estimated 90-97% of Russia’s military involved in the Ukraine invasion, Wagner appears to have had an easy time driving hundreds of kilometers through Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken out to say that Putin has been the author of his own destruction, and that launching his attack on Ukraine is the direct cause of the conflict now cutting through Russia. “He who chooses the path of evil destroys himself,” said Zelenskyy.
RELATED STORY: Ukraine Update: Putin's blunder
Multiple reports emerging of Prigozhin’s announcement that he’s called things off:
UPDATE: Saturday, Jun 24, 2023 · 4:25:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
At 7PM in Moscow:
- Lead elements of the Wagner mercenary force have reportedly reached Moscow Oblast and are continuing toward the city.
- Bridges along the M4 highway have reportedly been blown to slow the mercenary army.
- Putin’s plane has reportedly left Moscow and headed for his massive residence at Valday, about halfway between Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov has reportedly left the country for Turkey.
- Fuel tanks around the city of Voronezh are burning after the Russian military bombed them to keep them out of Wagner’s hands.
- Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly taken up residence in the former HQ of the Russian Southern Military Command at Rostov.
- There are reports of Russian military forces departing Ukraine in an effort to stop Wagner, along with rumors that some of those forces intend to join Wagner.
It’s been less than 24 hours since Wagner leader Prigozhin indicated he would take his forces into Russia, and about 18 hours since the Kremlin responded with a call for a “criminal investigation.” All that now seems ridiculously dated. Events in Russia are moving fast.
As of 5 PM in Moscow, the forces of PMC Wagner, a mercenary force owned by a former member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, has occupied many of the offices of the government and military in Rostov-on-Don, the 10th largest city in Russia. A convoy of Wagner forces then moved to to the city of Voronezh, about halfway in the 900km journey between Rostov and Moscow. Some of those forces are now between Voronezh and Moscow with reports that led elements of the Wagner convoy have reached the Moscow region.
Russian military helicopters have been shot down. Vehicles, including possibly a civilian bus, have been blown up along Russia’s busiest highway. Fuel tanks are in flames along the route. Bridges are being blow up to slow the progress of the Wagner force. And as the mercenary convoy gets closer to Moscow it’s impossible to tell whether we’re looking at a coup in action, an attempt to decapitate Russia’s military leadership, or something even stranger.
For those who have been following these events daily, RO37 has a detailed report on the events over the last day as well as up-to-date reports on actions underway. If you’re wondering “Who is this Wagner, and why are they driving toward Moscow?” … step inside.
Background
Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2017
Yevgeny Prigozhin is a long time associate of Putin whose connections to the Russian dictator go back to when Putin was gathering his power in Saint Petersburg. At one point Prigozhin provided catering for some of Putin’s functions, leading to the nickname “Putin’s Chef.” In 2014, he formed Wagner Group as a so-called “private military corporation” (PMC) which could operate as a mercenary force in Africa and elsewhere in support of Russian goals, without officially being a Russian military force.
In Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Wagner was allowed to recruit thousands of prisoners from Russian jails, including those who had been condemned to death. Many of these soldiers were offered freedom in exchange for serving with Wagner Group, which has reportedly caused many of them to be highly loyal to Prigozhin, even though Wagner’s tactics have been brutal.
The conflict between Prigozhin and leaders of the Russian military has been ongoing for months. Wagner forces conducted “human wave” attacks on Bakhmut, attacks that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths by throwing groups of poorly-armed mercenaries at the city one after another. Prigozhin constantly complained that his forces were being shorted on ammunition and artillery support.
In particular, Prigozhin has blamed Russian defense minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu and commander of Russian ground forces Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov for making decisions that cost the lives of his forces. This has included filming videos in front of hundreds of dead Wagner mercenaries in which he railed against the military leadership. However, it’s always been difficult to determine how much of his anger was real and how much was manufactured, considering that Wagner’s own tactics consisted of coldly sacrificing men in huge numbers to make incremental gains around Bakhmut.
On Thursday, there were multiple reports that members of the Wagner Group had contacted their families back in Russia and warned them that they might not be coming home and to “watch the news.” That was followed by Prigozhin releasing a video in which he was surrounded by rows of tarp-covered bodies which he claimed were Wagner mercenaries killed by a rocket attack from Russian forces. He then vowed that he would bring justice to the leadership of the Russian military.
There are also claims that this whole event is not simply a matter of Prigozhin versus the generals, but a more complex conspiracy involving other Russian oligarchs, but so far this is just speculation.
Prigozhin’s “not a coup”
In the early hours of Saturday, a column of Wagner forces, complete with tanks and armored transport, crossed from Ukraine into Russia north of the city of Rostov-on-Don. At dawn, those forces moved into the streets of Rostov capturing the local police headquarters, government offices, and the southern command of the Russian military.
Wagner troops in Rostov have been given food and an apparent welcome from citizens.
How many troops are involved is open to question. Prigozhin claims to have 25,000 men in Wagner, but the actual number involved may be smaller—between 10,000 and 15,000. On the other hand, there are reports that Wagner has been joined by units of the Russian military which have turned against Shoigu and Gerasimov. So far there is little evidence that the Russian military is actually splintering.
The only clear evidence of conflict between the Russian military and the Wagner occupation force was the approach of a Russian military helicopter, which Prigozhin claimed his forces shot down. Later, a second helicopter was seen on the ground and burning outside the city.
Wagner’s forces reached the center of Rostov around 5 AM and took up positions at many of the government offices. They also dismounted their transports and swarmed the headquarters of the southern district of the Russian military.
Shortly after, a portion of the force—again, it’s hard to say how large—was seen traveling along the highway toward Voronezh and Moscow. At Voronezh, Wagner forces appear to have largely bypassed the city, with videos showing the convoy moving north toward Moscow. However, the mercenaries have reportedly captured several military facilities, including supply depots and fuel supplies. The Wagner force has moved through both border stations and checkpoints manned by local police, FSB, and Rosgvardia (national guard) forces with little or no opposition.
Some reports have put the size of the convoy headed toward Moscow at 400 vehicles. Prigozhin was seen in Rostov after the convoy was already underway, and it’s not clear if he has joined this force moving north. In the last few minutes civilians, who had gathered around Wagner forces in the center of Rostov, have been told to leave the area, which may indicate some military action is pending.
The Russian military has sent helicopters to reportedly attack the advancing column. There are videos of an explosion on the highway that seems to show a missile striking a bus, which may not have contained Wagner forces. There are other videos showing Russian air forces bombing fuel supplies that had reportedly come under the control of Wagner forces.
In Moscow, Red Square is blocked off an military checkpoints are in place across the city.
What started as what seemed like another wild claim from Prigozhin has turned into a military conflict within Russia that is threatening to destabilize the country, undermine Putin’s government, and is already generating Russian-on-Russian fighting—involving tanks, armored transports, and air forces. Whether Putin will be able to stop Prigozhin before he reaches Moscow remains an open question.
President Joe Biden has received multiple briefings as the stability of a nuclear-armed nation seems very much in doubt. It’s beginning to seem that there is a real possibility that Putin may have invaded Ukraine, and lost Russia.
In statements, Prigozhin continues to insist that this is “not a coup” and that his intention is to bring the leaders of the Russian military “to justice” for their crimes in Ukraine, chiefly related to failing to adequately supply his Wagner forces and the claimed rocket attack on Wagner troops.
Few people expected Wagner to make it this far, but with an estimated 90-97% of Russia’s military involved in the Ukraine invasion, Wagner appears to have had an easy time driving hundreds of kilometers through Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken out to say that Putin has been the author of his own destruction, and that launching his attack on Ukraine is the direct cause of the conflict now cutting through Russia. “He who chooses the path of evil destroys himself,” said Zelenskyy.
RELATED STORY: Ukraine Update: Putin's blunder