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Four years after launch, NASA scientist Allison Youngblood talks about the discoveries of TESS

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In 2018, NASA launched a probe called TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) a highly specialized form of space-based telescope designed to search out exoplanets orbiting distant stars. Now, over four years into its mission, TESS has identified over 2,100 possible planets. Recently, TESS has been used in concert with the Hubble telescope to study a distant “super-Earth,” and paired with Hawaii's Keck Observatory to observe a series of doomed planets that are spiraling into their star.

In 2018, DailyKos was on hand for the launch of TESS and interviewed program scientist Dr. Doug Hudgins about all the possibilities ahead for TESS. Four years into what was originally a two year mission, deputy project scientist Dr. Allison Youngblood was kind enough to share what TESS has revealed, what remains to discover, and how new instruments like the James Webb Space Telescope are providing even more ways to extend the discoveries from TESS.

Among other things, Dr. Youngblood explains why so many of the planets TESS finds are much closer to their stars than Earth, why the other planetary systems we observe seem so different from our own, and how you can personally become involved in helping TESS locate new worlds.

TESS finds planets using the “transit method.” That it, it measures the light coming from the stars it observes and looked for dips in the output. If those dips are regular, it can show that part of the star is being regularly blocked a planet moving between that star and Earth.

The secret to TESS’s success is that its instruments are capable of observing a number of stars at a time, so it’s possible to keep an eye on many stars long enough to catch a planet going by. Even so, there are reasons why stars under scrutiny from TESS can have planets that still go unnoticed. For one thing, the orbits of those planets may be at such an angle that they don’t come between the star and Earth, so no matter how long we looked, we wouldn’t see them.

Time is also a factor. For example, if TESS was sitting at another star looking back at Earth, scientists might have to wait a year to have any clue it was there, and more years to see that signal repeat. For that reason, TESS tends to look at smaller stars than our own Sun, where planets in the “habitable zone” have much shorter orbits.

Dr. Youngblood: Earth transiting the Sun would produce a transit signal with depth of about 0.01% once every 365 days. Compare that to TOI-700 d, TESS’s first habitable-zone Earth-sized planet (orbiting a red dwarf star at almost 100 light years distance) that produces a transit depth of 0.07% every 37 days.

So, in perfect conditions, TESS would see almost 10 times as many transits of TOI-700 d, and each one of those transits would be easier to spot.

Dr. Youngblood: Multiple transits are very helpful for determining orbital period and boosting faint transit signals. It would be very lucky if TESS detected multiple transits of an Earth-Sun system at any distance.

Because of the need to capture multiple transits, and because the scientists involved were looking ahead to how TESS could work in conjunction with the JWST, most of TESS targets are actually M-class “red dwarf” stars that are both smaller and cooler than the sun. The habitable zone around these stars, which is defined as the distance from the star where liquid water could exist, is much closer than around the Sun. So planets travel faster. So TESS sees more transits. And because the stars are smaller, planets block relatively more of their light. That makes for a clearer signal. For TESS and other systems studying transits, these M-class dwarfs are the best.

However, just because a planet is in the habitable zone, doesn’t mean it’s actually habitable. People may get visions of steaming jungles—or alien cities—every time terms like “super-Earth” come up, but the name doesn’t mean they’d be super places to live.

Dr. Youngblood: A habitable planet is not the same as an inhabited planet, and planets in a star’s habitable zone (like the Sun’s Venus, Earth, and Mars) are not necessary habitable. TESS was designed to find planets around M stars. However, there are lots of reasons to think they may not be suitable for hosting life. The “M class” stellar type actually encompasses a very wide range of stars from those that are about half the mass of the Sun down to stars 8% the mass of the Sun. If I were picking a red dwarf planet to live on, I would avoid the ones in the middle of the M class, the ones around 35% the mass of the Sun. They’re especially known to be highly active with large, frequent flares that could be bad news for a planet’s atmosphere, not to mention life on the surface.

When it comes to the discoveries of TESS, it takes more than just computers crunching the return data to find new planets. Citizen science programs like Planet Hunters TESS allow anyone to sit down, go through a quick tutorial, and start sifting through data in a way that’s very hard for machines to match.

Dr. Youngblood: Citizen science programs have so far discovered hundreds of interesting planet candidates, many of which have gone on to be confirmed as real planets. Professional astronomers have created sophisticated algorithms to find exoplanet transits in TESS data, but it’s hard to beat the algorithm that is the human mind. People can easily spot tiny patterns that an algorithm might miss, but professional astronomers simply cannot manually go through hundreds of terabytes of TESS data. A very large group of enthusiastic citizen scientists can, though. .

One of the things that has turned up with TESS, as it did with earlier exoplanet missions like Kepler, is that the systems we’re discovering just don’t look much like ours. And that seems to be true even when we look at other stars similar to our own. Does this mean that our own Solar System is unusual?

Dr. Youngblood: It's impossible to say right now just how much of an oddball our system is. TESS and many other exoplanet missions excel at finding planets that are more massive than and hotter than the Earth. … A major objective for NASA’s Roman Space Telescope, which will launch later this decade, is to fill in the statistics for colder planets via its microlensing survey, so it would be interesting to discuss this question again in 5-10 years. It does seem odd that the most common type of planet in the galaxy (super-Earths and sub-Neptunes) doesn’t exist in our system. And it begs some really interesting questions like why are the outcomes of planet formation so variable from system to system? Are certain solar system architectures more favorable for life bearing planets?

One other place you’re likely to be hearing about TESS in the near future is in reports from the James Webb Space Telescope. While the beautiful images of galaxies and nebulas may get a lot of attention, when it comes to priority targets, TESS is helping to define where that new instrument gets directed. In fact, finding planets for JWST to look at was one of the TESS mission’s main objectives. They were designed to work together.

Dr. Youngblood: About 25 of the individual exoplanets that will be observed in JWST Cycle 1 were discovered by TESS.

Those planets are ones where Webb has a good chance of making discoveries about the makeup of the planet’s atmosphere. That might reveal if any of those planets in the habitable zone actually have high levels of water present.

While TESS may already be operating beyond the limits of its initial mission, that mission is far from over.

Dr. Youngblood: TESS just started its second extended mission, meaning that it will continue operating for at least the next 3 years. As long as the instrument continues to operate well, which we fully expect, TESS could operate for decades. TESS continues to make huge strides in finding new exoplanets (estimated ~1300 planet candidates per year), and it is increasing its sky coverage, meaning that essentially all nearby transiting planets have been or will soon be found. And the longer TESS operates, the greater its ability to detect cooler (longer period) planets.

So maybe TESS will discover a not-so-super Earth, orbiting a not-so-dwarf star after all. Given enough time, and enough helping eyeballs to scan the data, worlds very much like our own just might appear in the data. In the meantime, TESS is generating data, not just on planets, but stars, asteriods, and comets.

TESS will keep operating for years. Maybe decades. And it will keep returning data that’s valuable for many areas of science. But it’s not the last of its kind.

Dr. Youngblood: Roman, NASA’s next flagship facility, to be launched in about five years, is conducting a planet search in the Galactic Bulge. ESA has a couple missions in the works (PLATO and Ariel). And for NASA, the flagship observatory following Roman could be a large 6 meter facility (like Hubble but bigger) with an ultra-stable coronagraph that could detect Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars. There is also no shortage of existing and upcoming instruments on the ground that are hunting for new exoplanets.

It turns out that hunting exoplanets requires just the kind of instrument that are good for a lot of other space science, so the search for other worlds also brings back data on a whole host of subjects. And from all these missions we get at least a glimpse of all the possibilities that lie out there among the stars.
 
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