Ideally, heading into the final stretch of a midterm election, a party settles on a unifying message on the top one or two issues driving the cycle. Take the issue of overturning abortion rights, which has sparked an unprecedented surge in registration among both women and, in some states, younger progressives of both sexes.
In Texas, for instance, the progressive data firm TargetSmart found that before the Dobbs ruling gutting Roe, Republicans held a 5-point advantage in voter registration. But after the ruling, Democrats held a 10-point advantage in new registrations 42% - 32%, as of earlier this month—a net swing of 15 points.
Yet instead of uniting Republicans on what is arguably the party's biggest liability this fall, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina rather masterfully fractured it, sending colleagues and Senate hopefuls alike scrambling in multiple directions.
Campaign Action
Not only have at least 14 of Graham's fellow GOP Senators gone on record opposing his 15-week national abortion ban bill, Republicans battling for re/election are all over the map on the issue.
In support are Georgia hopeful Herschel Walker (a serial absentee father); Arizona hopeful Blake Masters (who took time out from scrubbing his site of "personhood" declarations to weigh in). Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina are also on board.
Then there's the dodgers, such as Ohio's JD Vance, who has declined to answer whether he supports the ban multiple times. In Nevada, where voters fiercely support reproductive freedom, GOP hopeful Adam Laxalt has adopted a states' rights approach.
In Pennsylvania, the campaign of Dr. Mehmet Oz—who embraced the position that life begins at conception during the GOP primary—continues to assure everyone he is pro-life. But, Team Oz adds, "as a senator, he’d want to make sure that the federal government is not involved in interfering with the state’s decisions on the topic.”
The rejectors of Graham’s ban include Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who co-sponsored six, 20-week abortion bans between 2013 and 2021 but now says states should decide the issue.
Likewise, New Hampshire Republican Don Bolduc suddenly shifted to a states’-rights posture after the retired Army brigadier general declared during the primary that he would "always default for a system that protects lives from beginning to end."
Colorado Republican Joe O'Dea says he wants to codify Roe into law but with added restrictions: parental notification, religious exemptions, and a continued ban on federal funding for abortion.
“I'm going to the Senate to negotiate a good bill that brings balance to women's rights,” O’Dea told 9News.
Because women's rights need to be weighed—or 'balanced'—against other factors.
But O'Dea's recent caveats to his original support for codifying Roe is a tell—every elected GOP Senator will be under enormous pressure to restrict abortion rights and implement a ban if Republicans reclaim the Senate. Graham has indeed promised a vote on his abortion ban if the GOP wins a majority.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is among the dozen-plus GOP Senators who have explicitly rejected implementing such a nationwide ban. But what has become perfectly obvious since the Jan. 6 insurrection is the fact that McConnell no longer controls his caucus. Exhibit A: Graham dropping a political bomb into the field two months out from an election. Exhibit B: Sen. Rick Scott of Florida releasing an 11-point plan to hike taxes on working Americans and sunset Medicare/Social Security. What a dream agenda: Abortion bans, tax hikes, disease, and poverty. The freedom busters! Make America suck! What’s not to like—it's the whole package.
For decades, Republicans have been particularly good at staying on message, but the fact that their party now stands for exactly nothing other than stealing elections is finally coming back to haunt them. Whatever principles they once stood for were shattered by a man who couldn't care less about party, country, humanity, or really anything but his miserable self.
No party in its right mind would close out an election this way. But Graham’s enormously unpopular abortion ban is emblematic of the fact that the GOP is a sick party that has lost its way. Dealing the GOP an electoral death blow this November is indeed the only cure.
Abortion rights, gun safety, and the our planet are all at stake in this election. We must persuade Democratic voters to turn out in November. Click here to volunteer with Vote Forward and write personalized letters to targeted voters on your own schedule from the comfort of your own home, without ever having to talk to anyone.
Since Dobbs, women have registered to vote in unprecedented numbers across the country, and the first person to dig into these stunning trends was TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, who's our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bonier explains how his firm gathers data on the electorate; why this surge is likely a leading indicator showing stepped-up enthusiasm among many groups of voters, including women, young people, and people of color; how we know these new registrants disproportionately lean toward Democrats; and what it all might mean for November.
Embedded Content
In Texas, for instance, the progressive data firm TargetSmart found that before the Dobbs ruling gutting Roe, Republicans held a 5-point advantage in voter registration. But after the ruling, Democrats held a 10-point advantage in new registrations 42% - 32%, as of earlier this month—a net swing of 15 points.
Yet instead of uniting Republicans on what is arguably the party's biggest liability this fall, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina rather masterfully fractured it, sending colleagues and Senate hopefuls alike scrambling in multiple directions.
Campaign Action
Not only have at least 14 of Graham's fellow GOP Senators gone on record opposing his 15-week national abortion ban bill, Republicans battling for re/election are all over the map on the issue.
In support are Georgia hopeful Herschel Walker (a serial absentee father); Arizona hopeful Blake Masters (who took time out from scrubbing his site of "personhood" declarations to weigh in). Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina are also on board.
Then there's the dodgers, such as Ohio's JD Vance, who has declined to answer whether he supports the ban multiple times. In Nevada, where voters fiercely support reproductive freedom, GOP hopeful Adam Laxalt has adopted a states' rights approach.
In Pennsylvania, the campaign of Dr. Mehmet Oz—who embraced the position that life begins at conception during the GOP primary—continues to assure everyone he is pro-life. But, Team Oz adds, "as a senator, he’d want to make sure that the federal government is not involved in interfering with the state’s decisions on the topic.”
The rejectors of Graham’s ban include Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who co-sponsored six, 20-week abortion bans between 2013 and 2021 but now says states should decide the issue.
Likewise, New Hampshire Republican Don Bolduc suddenly shifted to a states’-rights posture after the retired Army brigadier general declared during the primary that he would "always default for a system that protects lives from beginning to end."
Colorado Republican Joe O'Dea says he wants to codify Roe into law but with added restrictions: parental notification, religious exemptions, and a continued ban on federal funding for abortion.
“I'm going to the Senate to negotiate a good bill that brings balance to women's rights,” O’Dea told 9News.
Because women's rights need to be weighed—or 'balanced'—against other factors.
But O'Dea's recent caveats to his original support for codifying Roe is a tell—every elected GOP Senator will be under enormous pressure to restrict abortion rights and implement a ban if Republicans reclaim the Senate. Graham has indeed promised a vote on his abortion ban if the GOP wins a majority.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is among the dozen-plus GOP Senators who have explicitly rejected implementing such a nationwide ban. But what has become perfectly obvious since the Jan. 6 insurrection is the fact that McConnell no longer controls his caucus. Exhibit A: Graham dropping a political bomb into the field two months out from an election. Exhibit B: Sen. Rick Scott of Florida releasing an 11-point plan to hike taxes on working Americans and sunset Medicare/Social Security. What a dream agenda: Abortion bans, tax hikes, disease, and poverty. The freedom busters! Make America suck! What’s not to like—it's the whole package.
For decades, Republicans have been particularly good at staying on message, but the fact that their party now stands for exactly nothing other than stealing elections is finally coming back to haunt them. Whatever principles they once stood for were shattered by a man who couldn't care less about party, country, humanity, or really anything but his miserable self.
No party in its right mind would close out an election this way. But Graham’s enormously unpopular abortion ban is emblematic of the fact that the GOP is a sick party that has lost its way. Dealing the GOP an electoral death blow this November is indeed the only cure.
Abortion rights, gun safety, and the our planet are all at stake in this election. We must persuade Democratic voters to turn out in November. Click here to volunteer with Vote Forward and write personalized letters to targeted voters on your own schedule from the comfort of your own home, without ever having to talk to anyone.
Since Dobbs, women have registered to vote in unprecedented numbers across the country, and the first person to dig into these stunning trends was TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, who's our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bonier explains how his firm gathers data on the electorate; why this surge is likely a leading indicator showing stepped-up enthusiasm among many groups of voters, including women, young people, and people of color; how we know these new registrants disproportionately lean toward Democrats; and what it all might mean for November.
Embedded Content