The grim headlines suggest UK’s Omicron-fuelled Covid-19 wave not yet washed through.
The armed forces are supporting the NHS in various parts of the UK as new data shows hospital staff absences due to Covid have risen 59% in a week.
Some 200 military personnel have been drafted in to help the NHS in London, while around 150 staff will support the the ambulance service in the North West of England from next week by driving ambulances, helping lift patients and offering life support.
But the latest data my provide some hope.
On Friday, the UK reported a further 178,250 Covid cases picked up by testing – marking the third day in a row recorded infections have fallen. The total was down from 179,756 on Thursday and from 194,747 on Wednesday. Cases reached a record high on Tuesday when 218,724 infections were reported.
And many have pointed to the apparent plateauing in London.
Reports of new cases in the capital and admissions to the city’s hospitals have been slowing, according to official tallies. Admissions were growing by as much as 15 per cent a day in late December, but they dropped to 5 per cent increases over the New Year’s weekend, and are now falling.
But scientists, statisticians and politicians warn against cherry-picking figures to suggest the surge has peaked.
Friday’s daily Covid count was down 6 per cent on the figure last week. But, then again, the total of infections for this week are up 20% compared with the total for the week before. Deriving conclusions from deaths, a lagging indicator, also proves tricky. Some 229 Covid fatalities were registered across the UK on Friday, marking a 13 per cent rise compared to a week ago. But the figure has been steady since November – and significantly lower than in previous waves – and the suggestion fewer ventilators are now needed speak to the variant’s milder impact.
That the true number of infections is estimated to be much higher – a long-standing issue but one compounded by recent testing shortages and irregular reporting during the festive period – also makes grand proclamations difficult. And looking at the raw numbers can be misleading too – falls in infections are among younger people, and it’s the older population who are more likely to be severely ill or die.
“Slow down is being driven by cases falling in London and in younger age groups.”
According to ZOE Covid Study incidence figures, cases are still rising in all regions in the UK – except London.
Omicron cases are still up in all age groups above 35, and in particular in the over-75s. Meanwhile, Covid cases appear to be going down in 18 to 35-year-olds.
Dr Claire Steves, scientist on the ZOE Covid Study app and reader at King’s College London said: “It’s good news that the number of daily new cases has slowed for now.
“However, it’s worrying to see cases increasing in the over 75 age group. This is the group we need to protect as they are the most likely to be hospitalised as a result of a Covid infection.”
“We’re not going to see is a big surge in very severe outcomes.”
A surge in the number of severe Omicron cases and deaths is unlikely to be seen in the current wave of the pandemic, according to a leading statistician.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter said that while there is no definite break between the number of Covid infections and hospital admissions, the link between the number of cases and severe outcomes has been cut.
The statistician told BBC News that although hospital admissions in London seem to be stable, admissions are rising in other parts of the country.
Sir David, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, said: “The big severing is between really severe outcomes and that there’s still no sign of a serious increase in intensive care, and ventilation, and in deaths.
“We would have expected to see that by now in London and elsewhere – so that is the really reassuring thing.
“I think we can guarantee that over this wave, as we endure the next few weeks, what we’re not going to see is a big surge in very severe outcomes.
“So it’s more a matter of managing this wave that we’re in the middle of. The crucial thing there is the disruption to the NHS and other services.”
“The next week or two we’ll have a real indication as to whether we really have peaked.”
Dr Mike Tildesley, from the University of Warwick and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M), said while cases were “very, very high”, there was early evidence that the situation might be turning around. However, at this stage there would be little to turn things round quickly if the optimism proved premature.
“The problem, of course, is that if you’re thinking about introducing controls, once you’re beyond the peak of the infection, then that has much less effect,” he said.
Dr Tildesley would not agree to saying it was definitely too late for restrictions, adding it was unclear the epidemic had peaked.
“The next few days will be really, really key for us to try to identify that – children are going back to school, we’ve had sort of differences in mixing patterns over the Christmas period and we are yet to see what happens in the data as a result of that,” he said.
“The next week or two we’ll have a real indication as to whether we really have peaked and things are starting to turn around, then we’ll have much more information as to what the effectiveness of interventions may or may not have been at this point.”
“We haven’t reached the peak of this wave yet.”
Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford told a press conference on Friday how the Omicron “storm” had hit Wales, and previous waves of coronavirus across the country “are nothing compared to the size and speed of this Omicron wave”.
But he said: “Unlike previous waves, which have lasted many months, we believe this one will be short-lived.
“This is because of the speed Omicron is moving at. We haven’t reached the peak of this wave yet. This could be another 10 to 14 days away.”
“Another fortnight of admissions from Omicron are baked in.”
Regardless of when the “end” arrives, the NHS is likely to be under strain for some time. A fortnight of further hospital admissions for Covid-19 are “already baked in” as some NHS staff face “the steepest climb of the pandemic yet”, the head of the health service has said.
Amanda Pritchard, chief executive of NHS England, said: “Realistically, another fortnight of admissions from Omicron are baked in. The only unknown is what level we will see and, of course, we will hope that the more optimistic forecasts are going to be the right ones.”
