Last week, Kyrsten Sinema stunned many with her decision to abandon the Democratic Party and become an independent—but is there more or less than meets the eye here? This week on The Downballot, we explore what Sinema’s lone wolf strategy will mean for Democrats moving forward, as well as an upcoming special election in Virginia's fourth congressional district that is happening on a very accelerated timeframe. Lastly, our hosts, David Nir and David Beard, take a look ahead at 2023.
Of 2023, Nir said, “So, there is no such thing as an off year when it comes to American elections, which is why we figured that the best way to wrap up 2022 is to talk about 2023. Yes, it is an odd-numbered year. It is not even a midterm election, but there are some major, major races coming up. You have to stay tuned into them as a progressive if you care at all about this country.”
Listen below or subscribe to The Downballot wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find a transcript for this week right here. New episodes come out every Thursday!
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So, what does Sinema’s party change mean for Senate control? The answer is, according to Nir, nothing at all:
According to Beard, the reality is that this is more about how Sinema is looking for an escape hatch for 2024, more so than it is about the actual legislative calendar of 2023 or 2024:
”Oh yeah,” Nir quipped. “I mean, we know that had Sinema stayed a Democrat, she absolutely would've lost a primary to just about any challenger. Her numbers are absolutely in the dumps.”
“The reality is she's not going to get those numbers even if she ends up running as an Independent in a three-candidate race,” Beard added. “There will be lots of people right now who are maybe independents or even those few Democrats, Republicans who might be favorable to her even in these very low numbers that add up to this very low overall number. But when the election comes, most of those voters are going to retreat to their parties and vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate.”
On the types of voters Sinema would now appeal to as an independent, Nir had this to say:
The hosts moved on to discuss another race that is coming up incredibly soon, in the shortest turnaround time election that Nir says he has ever seen in his lifetime in the United States.
Democratic Congressman Donald McKeon, who represented the 4th congressional district in Virginia, a heavily blue seat, died not long after election day, and there will be a special election to replace him. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin called that race for February 21, but parties have to pick nominees well before then. So, Democrats have decided that they are going to conduct what's known as a firehouse primary on December 20th. That is this upcoming Tuesday.
What is a firehouse primary? Unlike a state-run primary, a firehouse primary is a nominated contest that is run by the party. Typically, the Democratic Party itself will set up a handful of polling locations across the district—so far, far fewer polling locations than there would be in a normal state-run primary. Regular voting hours will be observed, but turnout for this primary will likely be very, very low: not only are there so few polling places, but it is happening just five days before Christmas. “So, it is super, super, super hard to handicap this one. This is going to be about whichever Democrat can get their most hardcore supporters out there to what I think are just going to be five polling sites,” Nir commented.
With the low turnout, Beard added, “you're going to see a very, very small number of voters selecting probably the next congressperson for life or for a very long time in this seat.”
Nir provided an overview of the election, and some interesting players running for this seat:
”State Senator Joe Morrisey is notorious in Richmond. He's had his law license revoked, not once but twice, and he was convicted of contributing to the delinquency of a minor after having a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old receptionist at his law firm. So, that's pretty bad. There's also a lot of other things where he's been a thorn in the side of the Democratic Party, just in general, on a bunch of different issues. So, this is really not the person that we want to see going to Congress representing Virginia Democrats,” Beard added.
Virginia is a big deal because elections start in 2023 with Virginia again. Only a few weeks after the firehouse primary, there is a completely different election in Virginia State Senate District Seven, where State Senator Jim Kiggans resigned after defeating Democratic representative Elaine Luria in the November election. Republican Kiggans is headed to Congress, which means that there is an open seat.
This is a very competitive open seat, as Kiggans only won it by about a point in 2019. Joe Biden would have carried this district by 10 points in 2020, and Youngkin, the Republican governor of Virginia, prevailed by four points in 2021. So, this is a very swing district, definitely competitive for both parties. The Democratic candidate is Virginia Beach City Counselor Aaron Rouse, who is endorsed by Daily Kos. His win would expand the Democratic state Senate majority from 21 to 19 to 22 to 18. The entire body of the Virginia State Senate is up in November, but getting an incumbent in there is obviously both good for this year's legislative session and for holding onto the majority long term. If Rouse can flip this seat and expand the Dem majority to 22-18 instead, that would render Morrisey powerless in a way. “He's a lot like the Joe Manchin of the Virginia State Senate. So, this is a great race for progressives to get involved in,” Nir said.
The biggest race of all in 2023, however, is happening in the Wisconsin Supreme Court — and the stakes are enormous. As Nir put it, the situation looks like this right now:
“Yeah, there's absolutely no bigger election in 2023 than this election. Also because, of course, Wisconsin is a huge swing state. It's going to matter for 2024 and having that backstop of a progressive majority who will uphold the rule of law, uphold elections and ensure that the rightful winner of the election, the person who gets the most votes, wins the election in Wisconsin is extremely important,” Beard concurred.
Next, the most populous city in America that will be holding a mayoral election in 2023 is Chicago, with a nonpartisan primary coming up Feb. 28 and then a general election April 4 if no candidate wins a majority of the vote. Lori Lightfoot is the incumbent mayor, but she faces 10 opponents so far—most prominently, Representative Chuy García. Other major contenders include Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who has a lot of union support, and Willie Wilson, a perennial candidate with plenty of money to spend.
“This race is really a bit of a free for all. Lightfoot is not very popular right now, so there's a real sense that somebody else could win the race—particularly Garcia ... as a U.S. rep has a lot of connections, has a lot of support in various communities, is seen as somebody who could really take Lightfoot down,” said Beard, assessing the potential outcomes.
“Crime, of course has been a perennial issue in Chicago, and Lightfoot has also just clashed with a lot of people and rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. One former ally on the city council said, ‘I have never met anybody who has managed to piss off every single person they come in contact with, police, fire, teachers, alderman, businesses, manufacturing,’ in reference to Lightfoot so there's a real chance that Chicago's going to have a new mayor in 2023,” he added.
Nir said he would be more surprised to see her hang on: “Yeah, if you can't win either the unions or the business community, I don't understand how you win a mayoral race in a city like Chicago. Garcia has released some polling that showed him absolutely destroying Lightfoot, I think by something like 30 points so I would not be surprised at all to see her go down.”
They also talked about governor’s races happening in Kentucky and Louisiana.
In Kentucky, Governor Andy Beshear will be running for reelection. The primary is not until May 16, but the filing deadline is quite soon. Right now, the big question is whether former governor Matt Bevin decides to make a comeback bid, as Beshear was narrowly ousted in 2019.
In Kentucky, unlike many other Southern states, there are no primary runoffs. So candidates don't need a majority to win the nomination, only a simple plurality. There has been some talk about changing those rules, but it seems quite unlikely, so Bevin could skate through with a plurality once again.
The other governor's race where a current Democratic incumbent is holding a pretty red state is Louisiana. But in this case, John Bel Edwards, the Democratic incumbent, is term-limited and so won't be able to run for another term. And so this is an open seat. One thing to keep in mind is that Louisiana does not like to follow conventional election timelines: they have an all-party primary on October 14th, and then a likely runoff, assuming no one gets a majority, on Nov. 18.
The biggest announced candidate is far-right Attorney General Jeff Landry, on the Republican side. But a lot of other perspective Republicans are waiting to see if U.S. Senator John Kennedy tosses his hat in the ring next month or not. It is likely that if he does announce, many Republicans will avoid running and simply defer to him. For Democrats, the most serious option right now is state transportation secretary, Sean Wilson, who has formed an exploratory committee. He would be the first Black statewide elected official if he were to win.
“Of course, like I said, the primary isn't until October. Things tend to develop late in Louisiana. So there's probably a ways to go before this really starts to crystallize into a race we can really analyze,” Beard said.
The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts! As a reminder, you can reach our hosts by email at thedownballot@dailykos.com. Please send in any questions you may have for next week's mailbag. You can also reach out via Twitter at @DKElections.
Of 2023, Nir said, “So, there is no such thing as an off year when it comes to American elections, which is why we figured that the best way to wrap up 2022 is to talk about 2023. Yes, it is an odd-numbered year. It is not even a midterm election, but there are some major, major races coming up. You have to stay tuned into them as a progressive if you care at all about this country.”
Listen below or subscribe to The Downballot wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find a transcript for this week right here. New episodes come out every Thursday!
Embedded Content
So, what does Sinema’s party change mean for Senate control? The answer is, according to Nir, nothing at all:
According to Beard, the reality is that this is more about how Sinema is looking for an escape hatch for 2024, more so than it is about the actual legislative calendar of 2023 or 2024:
”Oh yeah,” Nir quipped. “I mean, we know that had Sinema stayed a Democrat, she absolutely would've lost a primary to just about any challenger. Her numbers are absolutely in the dumps.”
“The reality is she's not going to get those numbers even if she ends up running as an Independent in a three-candidate race,” Beard added. “There will be lots of people right now who are maybe independents or even those few Democrats, Republicans who might be favorable to her even in these very low numbers that add up to this very low overall number. But when the election comes, most of those voters are going to retreat to their parties and vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate.”
On the types of voters Sinema would now appeal to as an independent, Nir had this to say:
The hosts moved on to discuss another race that is coming up incredibly soon, in the shortest turnaround time election that Nir says he has ever seen in his lifetime in the United States.
Democratic Congressman Donald McKeon, who represented the 4th congressional district in Virginia, a heavily blue seat, died not long after election day, and there will be a special election to replace him. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin called that race for February 21, but parties have to pick nominees well before then. So, Democrats have decided that they are going to conduct what's known as a firehouse primary on December 20th. That is this upcoming Tuesday.
What is a firehouse primary? Unlike a state-run primary, a firehouse primary is a nominated contest that is run by the party. Typically, the Democratic Party itself will set up a handful of polling locations across the district—so far, far fewer polling locations than there would be in a normal state-run primary. Regular voting hours will be observed, but turnout for this primary will likely be very, very low: not only are there so few polling places, but it is happening just five days before Christmas. “So, it is super, super, super hard to handicap this one. This is going to be about whichever Democrat can get their most hardcore supporters out there to what I think are just going to be five polling sites,” Nir commented.
With the low turnout, Beard added, “you're going to see a very, very small number of voters selecting probably the next congressperson for life or for a very long time in this seat.”
Nir provided an overview of the election, and some interesting players running for this seat:
”State Senator Joe Morrisey is notorious in Richmond. He's had his law license revoked, not once but twice, and he was convicted of contributing to the delinquency of a minor after having a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old receptionist at his law firm. So, that's pretty bad. There's also a lot of other things where he's been a thorn in the side of the Democratic Party, just in general, on a bunch of different issues. So, this is really not the person that we want to see going to Congress representing Virginia Democrats,” Beard added.
Virginia is a big deal because elections start in 2023 with Virginia again. Only a few weeks after the firehouse primary, there is a completely different election in Virginia State Senate District Seven, where State Senator Jim Kiggans resigned after defeating Democratic representative Elaine Luria in the November election. Republican Kiggans is headed to Congress, which means that there is an open seat.
This is a very competitive open seat, as Kiggans only won it by about a point in 2019. Joe Biden would have carried this district by 10 points in 2020, and Youngkin, the Republican governor of Virginia, prevailed by four points in 2021. So, this is a very swing district, definitely competitive for both parties. The Democratic candidate is Virginia Beach City Counselor Aaron Rouse, who is endorsed by Daily Kos. His win would expand the Democratic state Senate majority from 21 to 19 to 22 to 18. The entire body of the Virginia State Senate is up in November, but getting an incumbent in there is obviously both good for this year's legislative session and for holding onto the majority long term. If Rouse can flip this seat and expand the Dem majority to 22-18 instead, that would render Morrisey powerless in a way. “He's a lot like the Joe Manchin of the Virginia State Senate. So, this is a great race for progressives to get involved in,” Nir said.
The biggest race of all in 2023, however, is happening in the Wisconsin Supreme Court — and the stakes are enormous. As Nir put it, the situation looks like this right now:
“Yeah, there's absolutely no bigger election in 2023 than this election. Also because, of course, Wisconsin is a huge swing state. It's going to matter for 2024 and having that backstop of a progressive majority who will uphold the rule of law, uphold elections and ensure that the rightful winner of the election, the person who gets the most votes, wins the election in Wisconsin is extremely important,” Beard concurred.
Next, the most populous city in America that will be holding a mayoral election in 2023 is Chicago, with a nonpartisan primary coming up Feb. 28 and then a general election April 4 if no candidate wins a majority of the vote. Lori Lightfoot is the incumbent mayor, but she faces 10 opponents so far—most prominently, Representative Chuy García. Other major contenders include Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who has a lot of union support, and Willie Wilson, a perennial candidate with plenty of money to spend.
“This race is really a bit of a free for all. Lightfoot is not very popular right now, so there's a real sense that somebody else could win the race—particularly Garcia ... as a U.S. rep has a lot of connections, has a lot of support in various communities, is seen as somebody who could really take Lightfoot down,” said Beard, assessing the potential outcomes.
“Crime, of course has been a perennial issue in Chicago, and Lightfoot has also just clashed with a lot of people and rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. One former ally on the city council said, ‘I have never met anybody who has managed to piss off every single person they come in contact with, police, fire, teachers, alderman, businesses, manufacturing,’ in reference to Lightfoot so there's a real chance that Chicago's going to have a new mayor in 2023,” he added.
Nir said he would be more surprised to see her hang on: “Yeah, if you can't win either the unions or the business community, I don't understand how you win a mayoral race in a city like Chicago. Garcia has released some polling that showed him absolutely destroying Lightfoot, I think by something like 30 points so I would not be surprised at all to see her go down.”
They also talked about governor’s races happening in Kentucky and Louisiana.
In Kentucky, Governor Andy Beshear will be running for reelection. The primary is not until May 16, but the filing deadline is quite soon. Right now, the big question is whether former governor Matt Bevin decides to make a comeback bid, as Beshear was narrowly ousted in 2019.
In Kentucky, unlike many other Southern states, there are no primary runoffs. So candidates don't need a majority to win the nomination, only a simple plurality. There has been some talk about changing those rules, but it seems quite unlikely, so Bevin could skate through with a plurality once again.
The other governor's race where a current Democratic incumbent is holding a pretty red state is Louisiana. But in this case, John Bel Edwards, the Democratic incumbent, is term-limited and so won't be able to run for another term. And so this is an open seat. One thing to keep in mind is that Louisiana does not like to follow conventional election timelines: they have an all-party primary on October 14th, and then a likely runoff, assuming no one gets a majority, on Nov. 18.
The biggest announced candidate is far-right Attorney General Jeff Landry, on the Republican side. But a lot of other perspective Republicans are waiting to see if U.S. Senator John Kennedy tosses his hat in the ring next month or not. It is likely that if he does announce, many Republicans will avoid running and simply defer to him. For Democrats, the most serious option right now is state transportation secretary, Sean Wilson, who has formed an exploratory committee. He would be the first Black statewide elected official if he were to win.
“Of course, like I said, the primary isn't until October. Things tend to develop late in Louisiana. So there's probably a ways to go before this really starts to crystallize into a race we can really analyze,” Beard said.
The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts! As a reminder, you can reach our hosts by email at thedownballot@dailykos.com. Please send in any questions you may have for next week's mailbag. You can also reach out via Twitter at @DKElections.