Hurricane Ian is turning east sooner than earlier projections expected, and will hit the western coast of Florida this afternoon, striking near Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte, carrying winds on the borderline of a devastating Category 5. Worse, storm surge as great as 16’ is now being projected in the entire Charlotte Harbor area. This is a catastrophic storm. If you are in a solid location above the level of projected storm surge, stay put. If you are in a beachfront location, or anywhere with a low elevation (which can include areas well inland), seek shelter now.
At 7AM ET, the National Hurricane Service showed the eye of Hurricane Ian 55 miles off the coast, moving northeast at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph—placing this storm on the borderline between Category 4 and Category 5. The center of the storm is expected to move over the Ft. Meyer’s area early on Wednesday evening. Winds are unlikely to diminish before that happens. Storm surge will not wait until the storm fully arrives. High tide in the area is around 3PM. Expect devastating surge to begin around the same time. [Correction: The eyewall of Hurricane Ian is already on shore as of 11:30 ET]
If you are anywhere in southwest Florida, it is most likely too late to evacuate the area. But if you are in a low-lying location, do not attempt to ride this out. No matter how many other storms you’ve been through, this one is going to be a whole new game. Go now, seek shelter. Do not wait.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 1:03:06 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
AKALib has a post in the community section that has more information on the storm, its relationship to the climate crisis, and how it compares with past hurricanes. For those who don’t need to be moving for shelter right now, definitely worth reading.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 2:45:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 3:35:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
NHS now reporting that the eyewall of ‘extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Ian is moving on shore now. As in NOW.
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE......IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON..
Storm surge in some areas has been revised upward again to a potential height of 18’.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 3:35:41 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 4:40:41 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 6:07:54 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
2PM ET update from the National Hurricane Center shows that Ian hasn’t lost any of its lethal punch.
“On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.”
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 6:47:16 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ft. Meyers is still hours away from the worst of the surge.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 6:53:38 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 7:48:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Thursday, Sep 29, 2022 · 12:03:22 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Thursday, Sep 29, 2022 · 12:08:38 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports of terrifyingly low numbers of people at shelters in some of the hardest hit areas. Very, very concerning.
Though the Tampa Bay area is going to once again face something less than the full fury of this storm, the surge there is still going to be on the level seen with many hurricanes. However, what’s hitting coastal areas to the south, if projections are correct, will simply be unimaginable.
Storm surge projections. Buildings constructed near the high tide level are not going to survive.
Note that, because Ian is striking the coast at a sharper angle than previous models suggested, it will also cross over the state and enter the Atlantic still carrying tropical storm force winds. Winds and storm surge will also be higher on the east coast of north Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina than previously projected. Those in this area should prepare.
In Charlotte County, Collier County, Glades County, Hillsborough County, Lee County, Manatee County, Orange County, Osceola County, Pinellas County, Seminole County, and Sarasota County, shelters are open and space is available. If I inadvertently left your county off the list, please add the link in comments. Many of these counties will also provide transportation if you do not have it.
If you think your location may not be safe, do not risk it. Call. Go. If you are aware of other people who may need transportation or shelter, move quickly to help.
If you are aware of homeless people in the Orlando area, the local government is providing free transportation and shelter.
Projected storm surge levels in feet of water above ground level
This is just a portion of the affected area. In all the areas of red, water is projected to be at least 9’ above ground level. Note that this extends to areas many miles from the coast proper.
Only five hurricane have ever hit the United States as Category 5 storms. Ian could possibly be the sixth. At best, it’s going to be awful. Don’t take a chance with your life or that of your family.
At 7AM ET, the National Hurricane Service showed the eye of Hurricane Ian 55 miles off the coast, moving northeast at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph—placing this storm on the borderline between Category 4 and Category 5. The center of the storm is expected to move over the Ft. Meyer’s area early on Wednesday evening. Winds are unlikely to diminish before that happens. Storm surge will not wait until the storm fully arrives. High tide in the area is around 3PM. Expect devastating surge to begin around the same time. [Correction: The eyewall of Hurricane Ian is already on shore as of 11:30 ET]
If you are anywhere in southwest Florida, it is most likely too late to evacuate the area. But if you are in a low-lying location, do not attempt to ride this out. No matter how many other storms you’ve been through, this one is going to be a whole new game. Go now, seek shelter. Do not wait.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 1:03:06 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
AKALib has a post in the community section that has more information on the storm, its relationship to the climate crisis, and how it compares with past hurricanes. For those who don’t need to be moving for shelter right now, definitely worth reading.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 2:45:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 3:35:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
NHS now reporting that the eyewall of ‘extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Ian is moving on shore now. As in NOW.
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE......IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON..
Storm surge in some areas has been revised upward again to a potential height of 18’.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 3:35:41 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 4:40:41 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 6:07:54 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
2PM ET update from the National Hurricane Center shows that Ian hasn’t lost any of its lethal punch.
“On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.”
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 6:47:16 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ft. Meyers is still hours away from the worst of the surge.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 6:53:38 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022 · 7:48:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Thursday, Sep 29, 2022 · 12:03:22 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Really afraid of what we are going to see when the storm finally passes. #Ian #FtMyers pic.twitter.com/GwvQVTen3f
— Paul Dellegatto️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 28, 2022
Thursday, Sep 29, 2022 · 12:08:38 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports of terrifyingly low numbers of people at shelters in some of the hardest hit areas. Very, very concerning.
Though the Tampa Bay area is going to once again face something less than the full fury of this storm, the surge there is still going to be on the level seen with many hurricanes. However, what’s hitting coastal areas to the south, if projections are correct, will simply be unimaginable.
Storm surge projections. Buildings constructed near the high tide level are not going to survive.
Note that, because Ian is striking the coast at a sharper angle than previous models suggested, it will also cross over the state and enter the Atlantic still carrying tropical storm force winds. Winds and storm surge will also be higher on the east coast of north Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina than previously projected. Those in this area should prepare.
In Charlotte County, Collier County, Glades County, Hillsborough County, Lee County, Manatee County, Orange County, Osceola County, Pinellas County, Seminole County, and Sarasota County, shelters are open and space is available. If I inadvertently left your county off the list, please add the link in comments. Many of these counties will also provide transportation if you do not have it.
If you think your location may not be safe, do not risk it. Call. Go. If you are aware of other people who may need transportation or shelter, move quickly to help.
If you are aware of homeless people in the Orlando area, the local government is providing free transportation and shelter.
Projected storm surge levels in feet of water above ground level
This is just a portion of the affected area. In all the areas of red, water is projected to be at least 9’ above ground level. Note that this extends to areas many miles from the coast proper.
Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center
Only five hurricane have ever hit the United States as Category 5 storms. Ian could possibly be the sixth. At best, it’s going to be awful. Don’t take a chance with your life or that of your family.