UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 4:38:53 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
McCarthy is going to lose the first ballot, definitely. There are at least nine definite “no” votes. What happens after that is anybody’s guess. There have been just 14 Speaker elections since 1793 that have gone to multiple ballots. The record is 133 in 1855. Can Kev beat it?
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 4:23:50 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
One of the “maybes”, Dan Bishop (NC) is now a definite “no.”
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:49:05 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
It looks like McCarthy trying to get tough in the conference meeting this morning didn’t work.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:19:01 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
McCarthy got “BIG APPLAUSE” after he listed all the concessions he made to the maniacs on the rules, Jake Sherman reports. Then he went on to attack the people he bowed to with all those concessions. Which doesn’t really scream “leader.” Also, Rep. Lauren Boebert was not impressed. “This is bullshit,” she said after McCarthy’s speech. Fun times!
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:14:26 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) says McCarthy is playing hardball—anyone who doesn’t vote for him doesn’t get on a committee.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:05:05 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
The GOP conference is meeting now, as McCarthy makes his case one more time.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 2:48:55 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
Here’s another unusual thing for a House vote; it’ll be done by roll call, with members standing when their names are called and announcing their votes. They can name anybody, or they can simply vote “present.” But with a bunch of the “Never Kevin” people with last names starting with B and C, we’ll have a better idea how this is going. A bunch could vote present, which doesn’t really help McCarthy—even if he wouldn’t have to reach 218, he still has to get the majority.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 2:31:26 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
If you’re going to be watching this on C-SPAN starting at noon ET, you’ll see a new face presiding—the Clerk of the House, who will be in charge until someone is elected. A fun fact: as of noon, there are no rules in the House, so anything they try do will have to be done with a majority vote. Like recessing to figure out what in the hell happens next.
The 118th Congress of the United States opens Tuesday, with the House and Senate both convening to swear in new members, adopt a new set of rules for governing the session another housekeeping. That should go well in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s majority is a real majority—51 members. Then there’s the House, which is shaping up to be a real shit show for the tiny GOP majority about to take over. The vote for speaker is scheduled at high noon. Electing a speaker is the thing that allows everything else to happen—the swearings in and the adoption of the new rules. No speaker, no new Congress.
The Democrats will nominate their new leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to be speaker. Some Republican will nominate Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Then they vote. And they keep voting until they elect someone. Even if it takes days.
As Tuesday begins, McCarthy, the Republican leader since 2019, doesn’t have the votes to take the speaker’s gavel. A definite five, and as many as 18, Republicans are refusing to vote for him. He has to get 218 votes, the GOP majority is 222. That didn’t stop him from moving into the speaker’s office Monday, apparently exercising the maxim that possession is nine-tenths of the game.
He’s also reportedly prepared to stand his ground during the voting, however many ballots and hours or days it takes. That means staying on the floor for the entirety of what could be an exceedingly humiliating process for him (if we’re lucky!). The McCarthy supporters are supposedly arguing that his presence on the floor will prevent the opposition from getting him into backroom conference to try to force him into going along with their coup.
There’s just out and out civil war now, with some pretty bizarre foes lining up against each other. For instance, QAnon queen and Jan. 6 insurrectionist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is out and out attacking fellow deplorables, calling the hardliners against McCarthy “destructionist.”
Sure, Marge.
Campaign Action
McCarthy has already made massive concessions to the whack jobs on the rules, but that’s proven to be not good enough. Nine of them wrote an open letter Monday saying that it’s just not good enough. “Despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd,” they wrote. One of the nine, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC), bitched in a tweet that all these concessions from McCarthy took too long. “Why didn’t we get McCarthy’s proposed rules package at least 72 hours in advance?”
Those rules he agreed to , by the way, are bad. One would reinstitute the archaic Holman Rule, enacted first in 1876. It allows Congress to punish specific federal employees or programs but cutting their funding. Think FBI, IRS, or federal prosecutors going after Donald Trump or insurrectionists. Those funding cuts would not be passed by the Senate nor signed by President Joe Biden, but the House GOP will use it to threaten things like government shutdowns and debt ceiling defaults. Because that’s what they do.
Speaking of investigations and protection certain bad Republican actors, they put a provision in to get rid of most of the Democratic-appointed board of the Office of Congressional Ethics by imposing term limits on them. It would also make it a lot harder to hire staff. Think of it as the Insurrectionist/George Santos Protection rule. There’s a ton more that’s in turns destructive and ridiculous detailed in a thread here from Aaron Fritschner who works for Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) and tracks all things procedure.
None of what McCarthy will agree to, though, seems to be enough for the hardliners. That’s got threats coming from the McCarthy team, spanning from MTG to what passes for moderate in this GOP, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE). “If a few won’t be part of the 218 members we need to govern, we’ll then find other ways to get to 218,” Bacon wrote in a Daily Caller op-ed.
It’s just possible that the maniacs will crumble after the first vote on Tuesday, if there aren’t more than a handful voting against McCarthy. They’re not really known for their organizational skills or their stick-to-it-iveness. They also haven’t managed to find another viable candidate in the weeks that they’ve been opposing McCarthy. But over the past few weeks, opposition to McCarthy has been growing. It’s certainly going to take more than one vote to get this done. How many more is anyone’s guess, but what’s certain is it’s must watch C-SPAN. Also that, should McCarthy emerge with the gavel, he’s going to be the weakest speaker in decades.
RELATED STORIES
Republicans promise chaos and lawlessness if they get Congress back in November
McCarthy’s political life continues to be hell. Just what he deserves
GOP 'moderates' boast about power while McCarthy is making his deals with the extremists
What better way to start the year than by previewing the biggest contests of 2023 on this week's episode of The Downballot? Progressives will want to focus on a Jan. 10 special election for the Virginia state Senate that would allow them to expand their skinny majority; the April 4 battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that could let progressives take control from conservatives; Chicago's mayoral race; gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Louisiana; and much, much more.
Embedded Content
McCarthy is going to lose the first ballot, definitely. There are at least nine definite “no” votes. What happens after that is anybody’s guess. There have been just 14 Speaker elections since 1793 that have gone to multiple ballots. The record is 133 in 1855. Can Kev beat it?
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 4:23:50 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
One of the “maybes”, Dan Bishop (NC) is now a definite “no.”
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:49:05 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
It looks like McCarthy trying to get tough in the conference meeting this morning didn’t work.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:19:01 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
McCarthy got “BIG APPLAUSE” after he listed all the concessions he made to the maniacs on the rules, Jake Sherman reports. Then he went on to attack the people he bowed to with all those concessions. Which doesn’t really scream “leader.” Also, Rep. Lauren Boebert was not impressed. “This is bullshit,” she said after McCarthy’s speech. Fun times!
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:14:26 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) says McCarthy is playing hardball—anyone who doesn’t vote for him doesn’t get on a committee.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 3:05:05 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
The GOP conference is meeting now, as McCarthy makes his case one more time.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 2:48:55 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
Here’s another unusual thing for a House vote; it’ll be done by roll call, with members standing when their names are called and announcing their votes. They can name anybody, or they can simply vote “present.” But with a bunch of the “Never Kevin” people with last names starting with B and C, we’ll have a better idea how this is going. A bunch could vote present, which doesn’t really help McCarthy—even if he wouldn’t have to reach 218, he still has to get the majority.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 3, 2023 · 2:31:26 PM +00:00 · Joan McCarter
If you’re going to be watching this on C-SPAN starting at noon ET, you’ll see a new face presiding—the Clerk of the House, who will be in charge until someone is elected. A fun fact: as of noon, there are no rules in the House, so anything they try do will have to be done with a majority vote. Like recessing to figure out what in the hell happens next.
The 118th Congress of the United States opens Tuesday, with the House and Senate both convening to swear in new members, adopt a new set of rules for governing the session another housekeeping. That should go well in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s majority is a real majority—51 members. Then there’s the House, which is shaping up to be a real shit show for the tiny GOP majority about to take over. The vote for speaker is scheduled at high noon. Electing a speaker is the thing that allows everything else to happen—the swearings in and the adoption of the new rules. No speaker, no new Congress.
The Democrats will nominate their new leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to be speaker. Some Republican will nominate Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Then they vote. And they keep voting until they elect someone. Even if it takes days.
As Tuesday begins, McCarthy, the Republican leader since 2019, doesn’t have the votes to take the speaker’s gavel. A definite five, and as many as 18, Republicans are refusing to vote for him. He has to get 218 votes, the GOP majority is 222. That didn’t stop him from moving into the speaker’s office Monday, apparently exercising the maxim that possession is nine-tenths of the game.
He’s also reportedly prepared to stand his ground during the voting, however many ballots and hours or days it takes. That means staying on the floor for the entirety of what could be an exceedingly humiliating process for him (if we’re lucky!). The McCarthy supporters are supposedly arguing that his presence on the floor will prevent the opposition from getting him into backroom conference to try to force him into going along with their coup.
There’s just out and out civil war now, with some pretty bizarre foes lining up against each other. For instance, QAnon queen and Jan. 6 insurrectionist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is out and out attacking fellow deplorables, calling the hardliners against McCarthy “destructionist.”
Sure, Marge.
Campaign Action
McCarthy has already made massive concessions to the whack jobs on the rules, but that’s proven to be not good enough. Nine of them wrote an open letter Monday saying that it’s just not good enough. “Despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd,” they wrote. One of the nine, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC), bitched in a tweet that all these concessions from McCarthy took too long. “Why didn’t we get McCarthy’s proposed rules package at least 72 hours in advance?”
Those rules he agreed to , by the way, are bad. One would reinstitute the archaic Holman Rule, enacted first in 1876. It allows Congress to punish specific federal employees or programs but cutting their funding. Think FBI, IRS, or federal prosecutors going after Donald Trump or insurrectionists. Those funding cuts would not be passed by the Senate nor signed by President Joe Biden, but the House GOP will use it to threaten things like government shutdowns and debt ceiling defaults. Because that’s what they do.
Speaking of investigations and protection certain bad Republican actors, they put a provision in to get rid of most of the Democratic-appointed board of the Office of Congressional Ethics by imposing term limits on them. It would also make it a lot harder to hire staff. Think of it as the Insurrectionist/George Santos Protection rule. There’s a ton more that’s in turns destructive and ridiculous detailed in a thread here from Aaron Fritschner who works for Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) and tracks all things procedure.
None of what McCarthy will agree to, though, seems to be enough for the hardliners. That’s got threats coming from the McCarthy team, spanning from MTG to what passes for moderate in this GOP, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE). “If a few won’t be part of the 218 members we need to govern, we’ll then find other ways to get to 218,” Bacon wrote in a Daily Caller op-ed.
It’s just possible that the maniacs will crumble after the first vote on Tuesday, if there aren’t more than a handful voting against McCarthy. They’re not really known for their organizational skills or their stick-to-it-iveness. They also haven’t managed to find another viable candidate in the weeks that they’ve been opposing McCarthy. But over the past few weeks, opposition to McCarthy has been growing. It’s certainly going to take more than one vote to get this done. How many more is anyone’s guess, but what’s certain is it’s must watch C-SPAN. Also that, should McCarthy emerge with the gavel, he’s going to be the weakest speaker in decades.
RELATED STORIES
Republicans promise chaos and lawlessness if they get Congress back in November
McCarthy’s political life continues to be hell. Just what he deserves
GOP 'moderates' boast about power while McCarthy is making his deals with the extremists
What better way to start the year than by previewing the biggest contests of 2023 on this week's episode of The Downballot? Progressives will want to focus on a Jan. 10 special election for the Virginia state Senate that would allow them to expand their skinny majority; the April 4 battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that could let progressives take control from conservatives; Chicago's mayoral race; gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Louisiana; and much, much more.
Embedded Content