The 2022 election cycle closes out in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker square off in a runoff. Warnock led 49-48 in the first round on Nov. 8.
Results
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:54:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
With all but roughly 100-150K votes counted, and the outcome clear, we here at Daily Kos Elections will call it a night, and call it an election cycle. 2022 is now in the rearview. And it was, upon reflection, an absolutely fascinating cycle.
Many of you have followed our election coverage since the earliest primaries in the Springtime, and we honestly could not be more grateful. And we can all celebrate that the 2022 cycle ended on such a positive note, with Sen. Raphael Warnock in the United States Senate for six more years.
Thank you for reading along, today and every day. Take good care of yourselves and each other, and our best to you in this holiday season*!
(*--Actually, upon reflection: Hey! Politics never rests, so don’t go away! We will have more on this race, 2022 in retrospect, and 2023-2024 in our future, starting tomorrow!)
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:30:37 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:29:55 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Fulton County piles on with 33,000 votes (which broke roughly 60-40 for Warnock, meaning these were day-of votes). Raphael Warnock now leads 51-49, and the only question remaining is whether his margin of victory is two points, three points, or four points.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:25:45 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
And there we have it: NBC News and CNN break the dam, calling the election for incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. A huge win for Democrats, by what will almost certainly be a wider margin than a month ago. And also a pivotal additional seat for the Democrats, who will gain a seat in the U.S. Senate for the 2022 cycle.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:23:26 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
A handful of votes were counted in DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties, and that has put Raphael Warnock back up by 0.8% (26,000 votes). That might be the last lead change of the night, given that very little remains in red territories.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:19:20 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
As we continue to count, Sen. Raphael Warnock has retaken the lead. By 802 votes. This will almost certainly widen, of course, but I do believe this is “lead change” number nine.
(Note: “lead change” in quotes because, of course, the vote has been in for three hours. We’re just counting what’s already been there!)
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:11:14 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Herschel Walker has moved back ahead narrowly, as the handful of Election Day votes from red counties continue to trickle in. His lead as of this hour is barely there, of course (1700 votes out of 3.2 million cast!), and is highly unlikely to survive what is likely to come out of metro Atlanta.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:08:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We’re stuck in a little bit of a holding pattern now, but we have surpassed 3.1 million votes total, and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leads Herschel Walker (R) by 4100 votes. A lot of metro Atlanta votes are left to count. Notably, Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, on a panel on CNN, was musing about what “might have been”, which isn’t exactly a vote of confidence in Herschel Walker’s prospects.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:50:00 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Fulton County just dropped about 45,000 votes, which broke heavily for Senator Warnock. That addition to the count puts him back ahead in the count, which I do believe is the seventh time that the lead has changed in this evolving ballot count.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:44:01 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Here is the quick math on why Democrats are still feeling quite confident despite Herschel Walker retaking a very narrow lead for the third time tonight:
If you only count counties that have >10% of their votes outstanding, that means that roughly 635,000 votes are on the table, according to NY Times estimates. 519,000 of them are in Democratic counties carried by Raphael Warnock in November. That’s 81.7% of the outstanding vote.
In other words, Walker is getting dangerously close to tapped out.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:34:57 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
It seems as if DeKalb County is determined just to make this death by a million cuts for Herschel Walker. Another drop of roughly 55,000-60,000 votes, which broke heavily for Sen. Raphael Warnock, and despite a number of red counties finishing their tallies, the incumbent is now back up by 0.2% (8,000 votes).
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:15:41 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
For those just checking, we are now over two hours into this election night in Georgia, the one that will determine the balance of power in the Senate come January. At this moment, with about 2.62 million votes counted, it is basically tied, with Republican Herschel Walker staked to a lead that amounts to a fraction of a percentage point (0.14%, or 3900 votes total). With about 600,000 votes still left to count in heavily blue counties, it seems likely that incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock will reclaim the lead at some point soon.
Results
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:54:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
With all but roughly 100-150K votes counted, and the outcome clear, we here at Daily Kos Elections will call it a night, and call it an election cycle. 2022 is now in the rearview. And it was, upon reflection, an absolutely fascinating cycle.
Many of you have followed our election coverage since the earliest primaries in the Springtime, and we honestly could not be more grateful. And we can all celebrate that the 2022 cycle ended on such a positive note, with Sen. Raphael Warnock in the United States Senate for six more years.
Thank you for reading along, today and every day. Take good care of yourselves and each other, and our best to you in this holiday season*!
(*--Actually, upon reflection: Hey! Politics never rests, so don’t go away! We will have more on this race, 2022 in retrospect, and 2023-2024 in our future, starting tomorrow!)
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:30:37 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:29:55 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Fulton County piles on with 33,000 votes (which broke roughly 60-40 for Warnock, meaning these were day-of votes). Raphael Warnock now leads 51-49, and the only question remaining is whether his margin of victory is two points, three points, or four points.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:25:45 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
And there we have it: NBC News and CNN break the dam, calling the election for incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. A huge win for Democrats, by what will almost certainly be a wider margin than a month ago. And also a pivotal additional seat for the Democrats, who will gain a seat in the U.S. Senate for the 2022 cycle.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:23:26 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
A handful of votes were counted in DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties, and that has put Raphael Warnock back up by 0.8% (26,000 votes). That might be the last lead change of the night, given that very little remains in red territories.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:19:20 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
As we continue to count, Sen. Raphael Warnock has retaken the lead. By 802 votes. This will almost certainly widen, of course, but I do believe this is “lead change” number nine.
(Note: “lead change” in quotes because, of course, the vote has been in for three hours. We’re just counting what’s already been there!)
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:11:14 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Herschel Walker has moved back ahead narrowly, as the handful of Election Day votes from red counties continue to trickle in. His lead as of this hour is barely there, of course (1700 votes out of 3.2 million cast!), and is highly unlikely to survive what is likely to come out of metro Atlanta.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 3:08:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We’re stuck in a little bit of a holding pattern now, but we have surpassed 3.1 million votes total, and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leads Herschel Walker (R) by 4100 votes. A lot of metro Atlanta votes are left to count. Notably, Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, on a panel on CNN, was musing about what “might have been”, which isn’t exactly a vote of confidence in Herschel Walker’s prospects.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:50:00 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Fulton County just dropped about 45,000 votes, which broke heavily for Senator Warnock. That addition to the count puts him back ahead in the count, which I do believe is the seventh time that the lead has changed in this evolving ballot count.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:44:01 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Here is the quick math on why Democrats are still feeling quite confident despite Herschel Walker retaking a very narrow lead for the third time tonight:
If you only count counties that have >10% of their votes outstanding, that means that roughly 635,000 votes are on the table, according to NY Times estimates. 519,000 of them are in Democratic counties carried by Raphael Warnock in November. That’s 81.7% of the outstanding vote.
In other words, Walker is getting dangerously close to tapped out.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:34:57 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
It seems as if DeKalb County is determined just to make this death by a million cuts for Herschel Walker. Another drop of roughly 55,000-60,000 votes, which broke heavily for Sen. Raphael Warnock, and despite a number of red counties finishing their tallies, the incumbent is now back up by 0.2% (8,000 votes).
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:15:41 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
For those just checking, we are now over two hours into this election night in Georgia, the one that will determine the balance of power in the Senate come January. At this moment, with about 2.62 million votes counted, it is basically tied, with Republican Herschel Walker staked to a lead that amounts to a fraction of a percentage point (0.14%, or 3900 votes total). With about 600,000 votes still left to count in heavily blue counties, it seems likely that incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock will reclaim the lead at some point soon.