The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
● Pres-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections is out with new data from Arizona breaking down the 2020 presidential results for each district in the state legislature. Republicans maintained the narrowest possible majorities in both chambers last year even as Joe Biden became the first Democrat to take the state's electoral votes in the 21st century.
The Grand Canyon State is divided into 30 legislative districts, with each electing one senator and two state representatives every two years; the districts are exactly the same (or "perfectly coterminous") for both chambers. Last year, Biden and Donald Trump each carried exactly half of the districts as Biden was prevailing statewide 49.4-49.1, but crossover voting was just enough to keep Republicans in power. As you’d expect when both candidates each carried half the districts, the two median districts when averaged together come close to reflecting the statewide result itself, with Biden winning them 50-48 for a Democratic median seat advantage of just one point.
Despite a strong Democratic campaign to flip the legislature, they netted just one seat in the Senate, knocking the GOP's majority from 17-13 to 16-14, while Republicans maintained their 31-29 edge in the House.
We'll start in the Senate, where just one lawmaker holds a seat carried by the other party's presidential candidate. That incumbent is Republican J.D. Mesnard, who prevailed 53-47 in LD-17, which includes a large part of Chandler in the Phoenix area, even as Biden won his constituency 51-47.
Campaign Action
The only other Senate Republican who won a closer race was Paul Boyer, whose LD-20 around Glendale backed Trump just 49.2-48.9. Boyer, though, still ran several points ahead of the ticket to win 52-48. Split-ticket voting wasn't quite enough, however, to save Republican state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, who lost to Democrat Christine Marsh 50.2-49.8 as Biden was carrying the Phoenix-based LD-28 by a 55-43 margin.
In the House, the electoral rules are a bit different. Each party can nominate up to two candidates for each district, and voters can vote for their top two choices in the general election, with the top two vote-getters winning. Sometimes, though, parties will choose to nominate only one candidate in a tough constituency and encourage their voters to not select a second contender, a tactic known as "bullet voting." The hope is that, by ceding one seat, the party will increase its chances to take the other one, and as we'll see, this maneuver did indeed seem to aid both parties last year.
Two House Republicans represent Biden districts, but unlike in the Senate, there's one Democrat in a Trump seat. That Democrat is Judy Schwiebert in the aforementioned LD-20, who was her party's only nominee here: Schwiebert took first place with 34.4%, while Rep. Shawnna Bolick edged out fellow Republican incumbent Anthony Kern 33.5-32.0.
Bullet voting, though, also likely secured the GOP control of a seat in LD-04, a geographically vast constituency in the southwestern corner of the state that backed Biden 56-43. Democratic state Rep. Charlene Fernandez led with 40%, but Republican Joel John beat out the district's other Democratic incumbent, Geraldine Peten, 32-29 for second.
The other Republican-held Biden seat in the House is also in LD-17, where one incumbent from each party ended up winning. Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Pawlik, who was Team Blue's sole nominee, led with 33.8%, while Rep. Jeff Weninger defeated fellow Republican Liz Harris 33.4-32.8.
Democrats may have another chance to flip either chamber of the legislature in 2022 if the new map looks similar to the current one, but redistricting will be an especially unpredictable affair in Arizona.
The state's congressional and legislative maps are drawn by an ostensibly independent commission, but Republicans have done everything they can to hijack it: Its nominally independent tiebreaking member has troubling ties to the GOP and has repeatedly sided with Republican commissioners on a variety of preliminary matters, such as hiring a map-drawing consultant who testified as an expert witness in support of a Republican gerrymander in North Carolina that was struck down by the courts.
P.S. You can find all of our district-level data at this bookmarkable permalink.
● GA-Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that state House Speaker David Ralston is considering challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, and his top aide didn't rule anything out when asked about Ralston's recent meetings with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC Chair Rick Scott. "He has stated several times that Republicans shouldn't have lost that seat," Kaleb McMichen said of his boss, before adding that Ralston was "working hard to see that does not happen again next year."
Still, the AJC gives us some good reasons to hold off on ordering any "David Ralston for Senate" T-shirts and koozies just yet. The paper notes that not only has Ralston frequently flirted with running for higher office but never done it, he'd also need to sacrifice his powerful perch in state politics in order to campaign statewide.
● NC-Sen: Brunswick County Commissioner Marty Cooke has filed paperwork with the FEC for a potential bid for the Republican nomination.
● OH-Sen: Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan, who is a co-owner of the Cleveland Indians baseball team, has set up an exploratory committee for a possible run to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman. Dolan, whom Cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias has described as "a more-moderate, business friendly Republican," first expressed interest in a Senate bid in January when Portman announced his departure, but this is the first indication we've seen in some time that he's still serious about running.
● NV-Gov: The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston reports that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has decided to seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, and that he'll be making his announcement sometime next month. Ralston adds that former Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison has signed on to chair Lombardo's campaign rather than run himself, though neither Republican has said anything publicly yet.
● NY-Gov: Half of the Republicans in New York's House delegation have given their endorsement to fellow Rep. Lee Zeldin's bid for governor: Nicole Malliotakis, Chris Jacobs, Andrew Garbarino, and John Katko, the last of whom has been mentioned as a possible candidate himself. For good measure, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, the founder of the nihilist House Freedom Caucus and a bellicose Trump defender, is also part of Zeldin's rollout of new supporters.
● VT-Gov, VT-Sen: Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who is the subject of a long profile in The Atlantic, tells reporter Russell Berman that he hasn't decided whether or not to seek a fourth two-year term next year. Scott last year only announced his reelection plans on the day of the filing deadline, though Green Mountain State politicos had no doubt that he'd be on the 2020 ballot.
Scott also reveals that he'd support Democratic Sen. Pat Leahy should the incumbent seek a ninth term; Leahy said back in January that he wouldn't make a decision until near the end of this year, though he sounded very eager to campaign again. Scott also sounded very unlikely to try to run if there's an open seat, saying, "To be honest with you, I don't think Republicans could win." The governor, though, didn't quite rule out the idea, adding, "You never close the door on anything."
● NH-01: Marine veteran Julian Acciard has announced that he'll seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas in the 1st District, a seat the GOP is very keen to make redder through redistricting. WMUR writes that Acciard "wants to deliver his conservative message with kindness," and the new candidate has already given us an early look at his brand of kindness. "Systemic racism was actually built―it was a system of racist policies built by Woodrow Wilson, FDR, and every single Democrat since," said Acciard.
● NM-01: New fundraising reports show Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury far outraising—and outspending—the rest of the field ahead of the June 1 special election in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District. From April 1 through May 12, Stansbury brought in $1.2 million and spent $765,000, leaving her with $525,000 on hand. Her Republican opponent, state Sen. Mark Moores, raised just $345,000 and spent $470,000, ending the period with $125,000 in the bank. Meanwhile, former state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, a Republican-turned-Libertarian who's now running as an independent, raised only $15,000 and spent $45,000, with $10,000 left over. Actual Libertarian candidate Chris Manning didn't file a report with the FEC.
As for outside spending, it's been almost nonexistent. A conservative group called the Freedom Forward Fund put $35,000 into digital ads attacking Stansbury earlier this month, while the progressive organization People for the American Way spent $16,000 on emails promoting her candidacy.
● PA-10: 2020 Democratic nominee and former state Auditor Eugene DePasquale sent an email to supporters Wednesday saying he was “strongly considering” a rematch with Rep. Scott Perry for this central Pennsylvania seat. Perry turned back DePasquale 53-47 last year while Donald Trump carried this district by a slightly smaller 51-48 spread.
Similarly to former California Rep. Harley Rouda, whom we mentioned in Friday’s Digest, DePasquale never really stopped running for this seat, even after his loss. In December, DePasquale filed paperwork with the FEC and, within his message to supporters, he linked to a campaign-style video that criticizes Perry for supporting Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
● TX-06: Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey picked up an endorsement from 23rd District Rep. Tony Gonzales on Friday, his first from a member of Texas’ congressional delegation. This is Ellzey’s second notable GOP endorsement for the July 27 runoff against fellow Republican Susan Wright, following his endorsement from former Gov. Rick Perry.
● WY-AL: This story is about as awful as they come. State Sen. Anthony Bouchard, who is challenging Rep. Liz Cheney in next year's GOP primary, acknowledged impregnating a 14-year-old girl when he was 18, then says he married her when she was 15 and he 19 under a since-repealed Florida law. The girl, according to Bouchard, gave birth to a son and later died by suicide at the age of 20. In describing the relationship, Bouchard said, "She was a little younger than me, so it's like the Romeo and Juliet story." He also indicated he was largely estranged from his son.
Bouchard revealed these personal details in an online broadcast, claiming he was seeking to get ahead of a "political opposition research company" and a British reporter who were looking into the matter, though he said he did not think Cheney was behind the effort. (Cheney's campaign denied it was involved, too.) In comments to the Casper Star Tribune, Bouchard insisted that he would remain in the race.
● Fort Worth, TX Mayor: EMILY's List has endorsed Democrat Deb Peoples ahead of her June 5 general election showdown with Republican Mattie Parker.
● New York City, NY Mayor: Comeback PAC, a group that Politico reports is funded by a group of pro-charter school billionaires, has launched a $2 million TV buy in support of 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang ahead of the June 22 Democratic primary. The opening ad invokes 9/11 and Hurricane Sandy, with a narrator declaring, "After the towers fell and the waters rose, New York came back. And Andrew Yang will help us do it again."
● Seattle, WA Mayor: City Council President Lorena González earned an endorsement Wednesday from the local AFL-CIO affiliate MLK Labor ahead of the August nonpartisan primary for this open seat. The deadline to run to succeed Mayor Jenny Durkan, who surprised observers last year when she decided not to seek reelection, also passed Friday, and we'll take a close look at the field in a future Digest.
Leading Off
● Pres-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections is out with new data from Arizona breaking down the 2020 presidential results for each district in the state legislature. Republicans maintained the narrowest possible majorities in both chambers last year even as Joe Biden became the first Democrat to take the state's electoral votes in the 21st century.
The Grand Canyon State is divided into 30 legislative districts, with each electing one senator and two state representatives every two years; the districts are exactly the same (or "perfectly coterminous") for both chambers. Last year, Biden and Donald Trump each carried exactly half of the districts as Biden was prevailing statewide 49.4-49.1, but crossover voting was just enough to keep Republicans in power. As you’d expect when both candidates each carried half the districts, the two median districts when averaged together come close to reflecting the statewide result itself, with Biden winning them 50-48 for a Democratic median seat advantage of just one point.
Despite a strong Democratic campaign to flip the legislature, they netted just one seat in the Senate, knocking the GOP's majority from 17-13 to 16-14, while Republicans maintained their 31-29 edge in the House.
We'll start in the Senate, where just one lawmaker holds a seat carried by the other party's presidential candidate. That incumbent is Republican J.D. Mesnard, who prevailed 53-47 in LD-17, which includes a large part of Chandler in the Phoenix area, even as Biden won his constituency 51-47.
Campaign Action
The only other Senate Republican who won a closer race was Paul Boyer, whose LD-20 around Glendale backed Trump just 49.2-48.9. Boyer, though, still ran several points ahead of the ticket to win 52-48. Split-ticket voting wasn't quite enough, however, to save Republican state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, who lost to Democrat Christine Marsh 50.2-49.8 as Biden was carrying the Phoenix-based LD-28 by a 55-43 margin.
In the House, the electoral rules are a bit different. Each party can nominate up to two candidates for each district, and voters can vote for their top two choices in the general election, with the top two vote-getters winning. Sometimes, though, parties will choose to nominate only one candidate in a tough constituency and encourage their voters to not select a second contender, a tactic known as "bullet voting." The hope is that, by ceding one seat, the party will increase its chances to take the other one, and as we'll see, this maneuver did indeed seem to aid both parties last year.
Two House Republicans represent Biden districts, but unlike in the Senate, there's one Democrat in a Trump seat. That Democrat is Judy Schwiebert in the aforementioned LD-20, who was her party's only nominee here: Schwiebert took first place with 34.4%, while Rep. Shawnna Bolick edged out fellow Republican incumbent Anthony Kern 33.5-32.0.
Bullet voting, though, also likely secured the GOP control of a seat in LD-04, a geographically vast constituency in the southwestern corner of the state that backed Biden 56-43. Democratic state Rep. Charlene Fernandez led with 40%, but Republican Joel John beat out the district's other Democratic incumbent, Geraldine Peten, 32-29 for second.
The other Republican-held Biden seat in the House is also in LD-17, where one incumbent from each party ended up winning. Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Pawlik, who was Team Blue's sole nominee, led with 33.8%, while Rep. Jeff Weninger defeated fellow Republican Liz Harris 33.4-32.8.
Democrats may have another chance to flip either chamber of the legislature in 2022 if the new map looks similar to the current one, but redistricting will be an especially unpredictable affair in Arizona.
The state's congressional and legislative maps are drawn by an ostensibly independent commission, but Republicans have done everything they can to hijack it: Its nominally independent tiebreaking member has troubling ties to the GOP and has repeatedly sided with Republican commissioners on a variety of preliminary matters, such as hiring a map-drawing consultant who testified as an expert witness in support of a Republican gerrymander in North Carolina that was struck down by the courts.
P.S. You can find all of our district-level data at this bookmarkable permalink.
Senate
● GA-Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that state House Speaker David Ralston is considering challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, and his top aide didn't rule anything out when asked about Ralston's recent meetings with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC Chair Rick Scott. "He has stated several times that Republicans shouldn't have lost that seat," Kaleb McMichen said of his boss, before adding that Ralston was "working hard to see that does not happen again next year."
Still, the AJC gives us some good reasons to hold off on ordering any "David Ralston for Senate" T-shirts and koozies just yet. The paper notes that not only has Ralston frequently flirted with running for higher office but never done it, he'd also need to sacrifice his powerful perch in state politics in order to campaign statewide.
● NC-Sen: Brunswick County Commissioner Marty Cooke has filed paperwork with the FEC for a potential bid for the Republican nomination.
● OH-Sen: Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan, who is a co-owner of the Cleveland Indians baseball team, has set up an exploratory committee for a possible run to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman. Dolan, whom Cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias has described as "a more-moderate, business friendly Republican," first expressed interest in a Senate bid in January when Portman announced his departure, but this is the first indication we've seen in some time that he's still serious about running.
Governors
● NV-Gov: The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston reports that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has decided to seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, and that he'll be making his announcement sometime next month. Ralston adds that former Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison has signed on to chair Lombardo's campaign rather than run himself, though neither Republican has said anything publicly yet.
● NY-Gov: Half of the Republicans in New York's House delegation have given their endorsement to fellow Rep. Lee Zeldin's bid for governor: Nicole Malliotakis, Chris Jacobs, Andrew Garbarino, and John Katko, the last of whom has been mentioned as a possible candidate himself. For good measure, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, the founder of the nihilist House Freedom Caucus and a bellicose Trump defender, is also part of Zeldin's rollout of new supporters.
● VT-Gov, VT-Sen: Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who is the subject of a long profile in The Atlantic, tells reporter Russell Berman that he hasn't decided whether or not to seek a fourth two-year term next year. Scott last year only announced his reelection plans on the day of the filing deadline, though Green Mountain State politicos had no doubt that he'd be on the 2020 ballot.
Scott also reveals that he'd support Democratic Sen. Pat Leahy should the incumbent seek a ninth term; Leahy said back in January that he wouldn't make a decision until near the end of this year, though he sounded very eager to campaign again. Scott also sounded very unlikely to try to run if there's an open seat, saying, "To be honest with you, I don't think Republicans could win." The governor, though, didn't quite rule out the idea, adding, "You never close the door on anything."
House
● NH-01: Marine veteran Julian Acciard has announced that he'll seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas in the 1st District, a seat the GOP is very keen to make redder through redistricting. WMUR writes that Acciard "wants to deliver his conservative message with kindness," and the new candidate has already given us an early look at his brand of kindness. "Systemic racism was actually built―it was a system of racist policies built by Woodrow Wilson, FDR, and every single Democrat since," said Acciard.
● NM-01: New fundraising reports show Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury far outraising—and outspending—the rest of the field ahead of the June 1 special election in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District. From April 1 through May 12, Stansbury brought in $1.2 million and spent $765,000, leaving her with $525,000 on hand. Her Republican opponent, state Sen. Mark Moores, raised just $345,000 and spent $470,000, ending the period with $125,000 in the bank. Meanwhile, former state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, a Republican-turned-Libertarian who's now running as an independent, raised only $15,000 and spent $45,000, with $10,000 left over. Actual Libertarian candidate Chris Manning didn't file a report with the FEC.
As for outside spending, it's been almost nonexistent. A conservative group called the Freedom Forward Fund put $35,000 into digital ads attacking Stansbury earlier this month, while the progressive organization People for the American Way spent $16,000 on emails promoting her candidacy.
● PA-10: 2020 Democratic nominee and former state Auditor Eugene DePasquale sent an email to supporters Wednesday saying he was “strongly considering” a rematch with Rep. Scott Perry for this central Pennsylvania seat. Perry turned back DePasquale 53-47 last year while Donald Trump carried this district by a slightly smaller 51-48 spread.
Similarly to former California Rep. Harley Rouda, whom we mentioned in Friday’s Digest, DePasquale never really stopped running for this seat, even after his loss. In December, DePasquale filed paperwork with the FEC and, within his message to supporters, he linked to a campaign-style video that criticizes Perry for supporting Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
● TX-06: Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey picked up an endorsement from 23rd District Rep. Tony Gonzales on Friday, his first from a member of Texas’ congressional delegation. This is Ellzey’s second notable GOP endorsement for the July 27 runoff against fellow Republican Susan Wright, following his endorsement from former Gov. Rick Perry.
● WY-AL: This story is about as awful as they come. State Sen. Anthony Bouchard, who is challenging Rep. Liz Cheney in next year's GOP primary, acknowledged impregnating a 14-year-old girl when he was 18, then says he married her when she was 15 and he 19 under a since-repealed Florida law. The girl, according to Bouchard, gave birth to a son and later died by suicide at the age of 20. In describing the relationship, Bouchard said, "She was a little younger than me, so it's like the Romeo and Juliet story." He also indicated he was largely estranged from his son.
Bouchard revealed these personal details in an online broadcast, claiming he was seeking to get ahead of a "political opposition research company" and a British reporter who were looking into the matter, though he said he did not think Cheney was behind the effort. (Cheney's campaign denied it was involved, too.) In comments to the Casper Star Tribune, Bouchard insisted that he would remain in the race.
Mayors
● Fort Worth, TX Mayor: EMILY's List has endorsed Democrat Deb Peoples ahead of her June 5 general election showdown with Republican Mattie Parker.
● New York City, NY Mayor: Comeback PAC, a group that Politico reports is funded by a group of pro-charter school billionaires, has launched a $2 million TV buy in support of 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang ahead of the June 22 Democratic primary. The opening ad invokes 9/11 and Hurricane Sandy, with a narrator declaring, "After the towers fell and the waters rose, New York came back. And Andrew Yang will help us do it again."
● Seattle, WA Mayor: City Council President Lorena González earned an endorsement Wednesday from the local AFL-CIO affiliate MLK Labor ahead of the August nonpartisan primary for this open seat. The deadline to run to succeed Mayor Jenny Durkan, who surprised observers last year when she decided not to seek reelection, also passed Friday, and we'll take a close look at the field in a future Digest.