Morning Digest: Missouri Republicans want to block abortion rights with 'ballot candy'

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The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.


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Leading Off​



Senate​


CA-Sen: The Public Policy Institute of California released a top-two primary survey on Thursday evening showing Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey locked in a tight place for the second general election spot, but there's a caveat we need to address first.

In particular, PPIC was in the field from Feb. 6 through 13, so these numbers are already fairly old, especially given the heavy spending by Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and his allies aimed at boosting Garvey past Porter.

This survey finds Schiff in the lead with 24% as Porter edges out Garvey 19-18 for second ahead of the March 5 primary. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee secures 10%, while a hefty 21% say they support another candidate. Most other polls, including more recent surveys, have put Garvey in second place.

ND-Sen: Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer announced Thursday that he would seek reelection this fall, comments that came over half a year after he insisted he was undecided about running again. There was no serious talk about Cramer retiring, though, and he should have little trouble claiming a second term in deep-red North Dakota.

House​


CO-04: Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg publicized an endorsement on Wednesday from former Sen. Cory Gardner, who previously represented older incarnations of the 4th District, for the June GOP primary. Also in Sonnenberg's corner are former Sens. Wayne Allard and Hank Brown, though it's been decades since either of their names appeared on a ballot.

NY-18: House Speaker Mike Johnson just endorsed Alison Esposito, a former deputy inspector with the New York City Police Department, in her bid to unseat first-term Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan. Esposito, who was the GOP's nominee for lieutenant governor in 2022, is the only notable Republican running in the swingy 18th District in the Hudson Valley, but she's trailed the incumbent in fundraising by a considerable margin: Ryan raised $763,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and ended the year with $2.2 million banked, while Esposito brought in $240,000 and had $198,000 left over.

OR-05: Former Govs. Kate Brown and Barbara Roberts have endorsed state Rep. Janelle Bynum as she seeks the Democratic nomination to oust first-term Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum previously earned the support of Oregon's current chief executive, Tina Kotek, meaning that, as the Oregonian's Sami Edge points out, all three women who've served as governor are now in Bynum's corner.

OR-06: Former state Sen. Denyc Boles dropped her bid for Oregon's 6th Congressional District on Thursday, saying in a statement that "unexpected circumstances" had made it "difficult for me to campaign and potentially serve." Boles was the first notable Republican to challenge first-term Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas when she launched her campaign last August, but she raised just $13,000 in the final quarter of 2023 and had only $52,000 in her coffers. Salinas, by contrast, took in $503,000 during that timeframe and banked $1.1 million.

In announcing her departure, Boles did not endorse the one other prominent Republican remaining in the race, consultant Mike Erickson, who lost to Salinas 50-48 in 2022. Erickson didn't kick off his quest for a rematch until January, so he hasn't filed any fundraising reports yet.

TX-26: Far-right media figure Brandon Gill has gotten a major boost from some high-powered outside groups as he seeks the GOP nomination in Texas' open 26th Congressional District, but he's also been the target of more than twice as much spending from organizations opposed to his candidacy.

Backing Gill are the far-right Club for Growth and a super PAC called Right Texas, which has been heavily funded by the candidate's father-in-law, MAGA toady Dinesh D'Souza. Together, the two groups have spent about $700,000, mostly on TV and radio ads and mailers, ahead of the March 5 primary.

At the same time, however, two other super PACs have combined for over $1.5 million on paid media and mail: America Leads Action, which has put in $1.1 million, and Conservatives for American Excellence, which is responsible for another $400,000. (We discuss these allied outfits more extensively in a related piece regarding the GOP primary in North Carolina's 8th District.)

One representative spot from America Leads attacks Gill as a "Wall Street banker" whose "bank did business with communist China." Thanks in part to self-funding, Gill remains the best-funded contender in this busy primary, and none of his rivals have been the focus of any outside spending, either positive or negative.

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