The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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● OR-05: A trio of Democrats tell Willamette Week that they're thinking about challenging freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon's 5th Congressional District, a 53-44 Biden constituency that could be vital to the party's hopes for regaining a majority in the House.
The only declared Democrat at this point is Kevin Easton, who sought the neighboring 6th District last year but dropped out well ahead of the primary after raising little. But other alternatives present higher profiles.
The most familiar name talking about running is 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod Skinner, who would be the state's first LGBTQ+ member of Congress. The Democrat, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer by a tight 51-49, now says she's "very seriously considering" a rematch in this seat based in Portland's southern suburbs and central Oregon. McLeod Skinner won the Democratic nomination last year by defeating conservative incumbent Kurt Schrader, who made it clear in December he wasn't interested in a comeback.
Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson also tells the paper she's interested. Peterson, who leads a unique regional entity that serves 1.7 million residents across portions of Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties, last year won her second term 53-32 in an officially nonpartisan primary after she spent her first term expanding Metro's influence by funding local governments within its jurisdiction. Willamette Week explains that the body historically has "engaged in planning for land use, transportation and solid waste" and is also responsible for "running parks, spectator facilities and the Oregon Zoo and Oregon Convention Center."
Finally, state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who would be the state's first Black member of Congress, also says she's mulling a bid against an incumbent she has plenty of history with. Bynum won her spot in the legislature in 2016 by unseating none other than Chavez-DeRemer 51-49 and defeated the Republican in a rematch two years later 54-46. More recently, Bynum pulled off a convincing 55-45 victory over GOP challenger Kori Haynes following an expensive campaign in 2022.
Chavez-DeRemer narrowly flipped the 5th District during a particularly tough year for Oregon Democrats. In May, McLeod Skinner had denied renomination to Schrader, a Blue Dog Democrat who refused to back her for the general election while prognosticating, "The red wave begins in Oregon―Oregon's 5th district." Both parties suspected he was right, especially since outgoing Democratic Gov. Kate Brown's poor approval numbers seemed to be another anvil for her party.
The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund did what it could to make Schrader's prediction a reality by portraying McLeod Skinner, who had served on the city council of Santa Clara, California, a decade earlier, as an outsider. The DCCC did outspend CLF $1.6 million to $730,000, but its allies at House Majority PAC ended up redirecting its own planned spending here to help Democrat Andrea Salinas in the 6th.
That decision was a boon to Salinas, who won her race 50-48, but it may have cost McLeod Skinner. Chavez-DeRemer ended up prevailing by a similar 2-point margin, a victory that made her the first Republican to win this seat since the 1994 red wave. In doing so, Chavez-DeRemer also became the first Latina to represent Oregon in D.C., a distinction she shares with Salinas. Democrats are hoping, though, that the new GOP incumbent will struggle in a presidential cycle.
● This week on "The Downballot," we're joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it's on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban "critical race theory" in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.
● MO-Sen: St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell unexpectedly announced Wednesday that he’d seek the Democratic nomination to take on GOP incumbent Josh Hawley, who appears secure in what’s become a dark red state. Bell, who would be Missouri’s first Black senator, joins a primary that includes Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, who unsuccessfully sought the nod for the Show Me State’s other seat last year.
● IN-Gov: The Associated Press writes that former Attorney General Curtis Hill "expects to make a decision in the coming weeks" about whether to seek the GOP nod. Hill narrowly lost renomination at the 2020 convention to former Rep. Todd Rokita two years after multiple women accused the incumbent of groping them.
● LA-Gov: Rep. Garret Graves on Wednesday became the first high-profile figure to endorse Stephen Waguespack, a former state Chamber of Commerce head who is campaigning in the October all-party primary. Graves, who represents part of the Baton Rouge area, has long been close to his fellow Republican, who served with him a decade ago in then-Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration. (Waguespack was Jindal's chief of staff, while Graves chaired the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority.)
● ND-Gov: Republican Gov. Doug Burgum on Wednesday launched a presidential campaign that essentially everyone agrees is unlikely to go anywhere, though as we've noted before, this move hardly precludes him from seeking a third term at home. North Dakota's candidate filing deadline usually takes place in April, well after the presidential primary season is underway, and so far no major Peace Garden State Republicans are acting like this will be an open seat race.
● NC-01: Republican Fred Von Canon, who lost back-to-back races for the state House, announced this week that he would challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a 53-46 Biden seat the GOP has the chance to gerrymander. Democratic state Rep. Terence Everitt fended off Von Canon 51-46 in 2020, and he turned in a similar 52-46 victory last year.
The only other Republican taking on Davis right now is 2022 nominee Sandy Smith, who doesn't appear to have stopped running after that loss for this seat in inland northeastern North Carolina. The Congressional Leadership Fund last year spent $600,000 in the primary in an attempt to stop Smith, who was accused of physical abuse by her daughter and not one but two ex-husbands, but neither it nor the NRCC aired ads in the general. Their Democratic counterparts, though, deployed a hefty $4.7 million ahead of Davis' 52-48 victory.
● PA-AG: Former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan declared Wednesday that he was joining the primary to succeed appointed incumbent Michelle Henry, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking a full term in 2024. Khan launched his campaign one week after former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale kicked off his own bid for the Democratic nod.
Khan lost the 2017 party primary for Philadelphia district attorney to Larry Krasner, who would soon become one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the country, 38-20. In 2020, though, the new Democratic-led Board of Supervisors in neighboring Bucks County appointed Khan to serve as solicitor, a post he left three years later as he mulled a statewide run.
● Denver, CO Mayor: Former state Sen. Mike Johnston defeated his fellow Democrat, former Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce CEO Kelly Brough, 55-45 in Tuesday's nonpartisan general election to succeed termed-out incumbent Michael Hancock.
Both contenders campaigned as moderates, but Johnston picked up an endorsement in the final weeks of the campaign from Lisa Calderón, a progressive who finished a close third in the April 4 primary. Calderón declared that she was reluctantly making her choice as a "harm-reduction strategy," explaining that, while Johnston expressed openness to public safety reform, Brough was backed by the local police union.
Johnston's side also enjoyed a huge financial advantage thanks to a super PAC funded by megadonors like LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Brough ran ads late in the race arguing her rival was being backed by "out-of-state billionaires," but it was far from enough.
● Where Are They Now?: The Biden White House announced Wednesday that it has chosen a trio of former Democratic House members for administration posts: Arizona's Tom O'Halleran, Florida's Charlie Crist, and Iowa's Cindy Axne. Crist has been nominated to serve as U.S. representative on the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, an ambassador-level position that requires Senate confirmation. But that's not the case for O'Halleran and Axne, who have been appointed to senior staff positions at the Department of Agriculture.
Crist resigned his House seat last year to focus on his unsuccessful campaign to unseat GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, while O'Halleran and Axne each lost reelection. None of these former representatives had discussed running again this cycle, though Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin relays that some Democrats wanted Crist to go up against GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in the gerrymandered 13th District.
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Leading Off
● OR-05: A trio of Democrats tell Willamette Week that they're thinking about challenging freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon's 5th Congressional District, a 53-44 Biden constituency that could be vital to the party's hopes for regaining a majority in the House.
The only declared Democrat at this point is Kevin Easton, who sought the neighboring 6th District last year but dropped out well ahead of the primary after raising little. But other alternatives present higher profiles.
The most familiar name talking about running is 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod Skinner, who would be the state's first LGBTQ+ member of Congress. The Democrat, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer by a tight 51-49, now says she's "very seriously considering" a rematch in this seat based in Portland's southern suburbs and central Oregon. McLeod Skinner won the Democratic nomination last year by defeating conservative incumbent Kurt Schrader, who made it clear in December he wasn't interested in a comeback.
Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson also tells the paper she's interested. Peterson, who leads a unique regional entity that serves 1.7 million residents across portions of Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties, last year won her second term 53-32 in an officially nonpartisan primary after she spent her first term expanding Metro's influence by funding local governments within its jurisdiction. Willamette Week explains that the body historically has "engaged in planning for land use, transportation and solid waste" and is also responsible for "running parks, spectator facilities and the Oregon Zoo and Oregon Convention Center."
Finally, state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who would be the state's first Black member of Congress, also says she's mulling a bid against an incumbent she has plenty of history with. Bynum won her spot in the legislature in 2016 by unseating none other than Chavez-DeRemer 51-49 and defeated the Republican in a rematch two years later 54-46. More recently, Bynum pulled off a convincing 55-45 victory over GOP challenger Kori Haynes following an expensive campaign in 2022.
Chavez-DeRemer narrowly flipped the 5th District during a particularly tough year for Oregon Democrats. In May, McLeod Skinner had denied renomination to Schrader, a Blue Dog Democrat who refused to back her for the general election while prognosticating, "The red wave begins in Oregon―Oregon's 5th district." Both parties suspected he was right, especially since outgoing Democratic Gov. Kate Brown's poor approval numbers seemed to be another anvil for her party.
The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund did what it could to make Schrader's prediction a reality by portraying McLeod Skinner, who had served on the city council of Santa Clara, California, a decade earlier, as an outsider. The DCCC did outspend CLF $1.6 million to $730,000, but its allies at House Majority PAC ended up redirecting its own planned spending here to help Democrat Andrea Salinas in the 6th.
That decision was a boon to Salinas, who won her race 50-48, but it may have cost McLeod Skinner. Chavez-DeRemer ended up prevailing by a similar 2-point margin, a victory that made her the first Republican to win this seat since the 1994 red wave. In doing so, Chavez-DeRemer also became the first Latina to represent Oregon in D.C., a distinction she shares with Salinas. Democrats are hoping, though, that the new GOP incumbent will struggle in a presidential cycle.
The Downballot
● This week on "The Downballot," we're joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it's on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban "critical race theory" in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.
Senate
● MO-Sen: St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell unexpectedly announced Wednesday that he’d seek the Democratic nomination to take on GOP incumbent Josh Hawley, who appears secure in what’s become a dark red state. Bell, who would be Missouri’s first Black senator, joins a primary that includes Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, who unsuccessfully sought the nod for the Show Me State’s other seat last year.
Governors
● IN-Gov: The Associated Press writes that former Attorney General Curtis Hill "expects to make a decision in the coming weeks" about whether to seek the GOP nod. Hill narrowly lost renomination at the 2020 convention to former Rep. Todd Rokita two years after multiple women accused the incumbent of groping them.
● LA-Gov: Rep. Garret Graves on Wednesday became the first high-profile figure to endorse Stephen Waguespack, a former state Chamber of Commerce head who is campaigning in the October all-party primary. Graves, who represents part of the Baton Rouge area, has long been close to his fellow Republican, who served with him a decade ago in then-Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration. (Waguespack was Jindal's chief of staff, while Graves chaired the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority.)
● ND-Gov: Republican Gov. Doug Burgum on Wednesday launched a presidential campaign that essentially everyone agrees is unlikely to go anywhere, though as we've noted before, this move hardly precludes him from seeking a third term at home. North Dakota's candidate filing deadline usually takes place in April, well after the presidential primary season is underway, and so far no major Peace Garden State Republicans are acting like this will be an open seat race.
House
● NC-01: Republican Fred Von Canon, who lost back-to-back races for the state House, announced this week that he would challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a 53-46 Biden seat the GOP has the chance to gerrymander. Democratic state Rep. Terence Everitt fended off Von Canon 51-46 in 2020, and he turned in a similar 52-46 victory last year.
The only other Republican taking on Davis right now is 2022 nominee Sandy Smith, who doesn't appear to have stopped running after that loss for this seat in inland northeastern North Carolina. The Congressional Leadership Fund last year spent $600,000 in the primary in an attempt to stop Smith, who was accused of physical abuse by her daughter and not one but two ex-husbands, but neither it nor the NRCC aired ads in the general. Their Democratic counterparts, though, deployed a hefty $4.7 million ahead of Davis' 52-48 victory.
Attorneys General
● PA-AG: Former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan declared Wednesday that he was joining the primary to succeed appointed incumbent Michelle Henry, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking a full term in 2024. Khan launched his campaign one week after former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale kicked off his own bid for the Democratic nod.
Khan lost the 2017 party primary for Philadelphia district attorney to Larry Krasner, who would soon become one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the country, 38-20. In 2020, though, the new Democratic-led Board of Supervisors in neighboring Bucks County appointed Khan to serve as solicitor, a post he left three years later as he mulled a statewide run.
Mayors and County Leaders
● Denver, CO Mayor: Former state Sen. Mike Johnston defeated his fellow Democrat, former Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce CEO Kelly Brough, 55-45 in Tuesday's nonpartisan general election to succeed termed-out incumbent Michael Hancock.
Both contenders campaigned as moderates, but Johnston picked up an endorsement in the final weeks of the campaign from Lisa Calderón, a progressive who finished a close third in the April 4 primary. Calderón declared that she was reluctantly making her choice as a "harm-reduction strategy," explaining that, while Johnston expressed openness to public safety reform, Brough was backed by the local police union.
Johnston's side also enjoyed a huge financial advantage thanks to a super PAC funded by megadonors like LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Brough ran ads late in the race arguing her rival was being backed by "out-of-state billionaires," but it was far from enough.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: The Biden White House announced Wednesday that it has chosen a trio of former Democratic House members for administration posts: Arizona's Tom O'Halleran, Florida's Charlie Crist, and Iowa's Cindy Axne. Crist has been nominated to serve as U.S. representative on the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, an ambassador-level position that requires Senate confirmation. But that's not the case for O'Halleran and Axne, who have been appointed to senior staff positions at the Department of Agriculture.
Crist resigned his House seat last year to focus on his unsuccessful campaign to unseat GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, while O'Halleran and Axne each lost reelection. None of these former representatives had discussed running again this cycle, though Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin relays that some Democrats wanted Crist to go up against GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in the gerrymandered 13th District.