The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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● VA-05: Thursday's recount confirmed state Sen. John McGuire's tight victory against House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good in the June 18 Republican primary for Virginia's conservative 5th District. McGuire finished with a 370-vote advantage over the head of Congress' notorious far-right bloc, a slight drop from the 374-vote lead he began the day with, and the incumbent conceded that evening.
Good's narrow defeat, which comes after he infuriated Donald Trump by endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' doomed presidential bid, puts him in a small club that nobody wants to be in―and no, it's not the Freedom Caucus.
As Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin wrote last month, Good is one of just 13 House members over the past five decades who defeated an incumbent for renomination before losing to an intraparty challenger themselves. This doesn't include four other representatives who went on to lose an incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary following redistricting.
But unlike other members of what Rubashkin has dubbed the "'primary-in, primary-out' club," Good never had to face a primary until this year. In 2020, the Virginian successfully challenged freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman, who infuriated hard-liners by officiating a same-sex wedding between two of his former campaign volunteers, at a party nominating convention—an event that just so happened to take place at Good’s own church.
Good had no trouble winning renomination at the Republican convention in 2022, but he faced a very different battle this time around. A law passed in 2021 required that all absentee voters have the chance to take part in nomination contests, a policy that made it difficult for political parties in Virginia to hold conventions rather than primaries. That shift may have made all the difference in an expensive battle where McGuire's big financial advantage and support from Trump were only barely enough for him to defeat the Freedom Caucus chair.
The "primary-in, primary-out" bloc also grew one week after Good's contest when New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who won his seat in 2020 after defeating Rep. Eliot Engel for renomination, lost his own Democratic primary to Westchester County Executive George Latimer.
And it will expand again next week if Missouri Rep. Cori Bush is unable to fend off St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell in a Democratic primary where she's being badly outspent. Bush herself defeated Rep. Lacy Clay in 2020 in her second campaign against him, a victory that made Clay the first Missouri House member to lose renomination to a challenger in more than five decades.
● TN-05: Freshman Rep. Andy Ogles held off Metro Nashville Councilmember Courtney Johnston 57-43 in Thursday's expensive Republican primary for Tennessee's 5th District.
Ogles spent his first term in office dealing with a series of scandals, including the revelation that he appears to have fabricated much of his life story. The congressman, however, still had Donald Trump on his side, which helped him overcome Johnston's well-funded effort to oust him.
Republicans two years ago gerrymandered the once reliably blue 5th District by dividing Nashville among three different constituencies, and Ogles should have no trouble in the general election in a constituency that Trump carried 55-43 in 2020.
We may hear a lot more from the Tennessean soon, though. Punchbowl News reported last month that Ogles planned to run to lead the far-right Freedom Caucus if he both won renomination and the recount in Virginia confirmed that Chair Bob Good lost his own June primary―both of which came to pass on Thursday.
● MI-Sen: Americans for Prosperity tells the New York Post that it will spend $1.7 million on ads this month to aid former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is the favorite to win next week's Republican primary.
● DE-Gov: Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s team announced Wednesday that it was taking on a new campaign manager and parting ways with two senior staffers six weeks ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for governor, a move that comes after several bad days for the candidate.
State election officials last week released a report that concluded that Hall-Long violated state campaign finance law by failing to disclose nearly $300,000 that her campaign paid to her husband over the past several years to repay what they claimed were personal loans to the campaign. The news has led to several unwelcome headlines for Hall-Long, including a Delaware News Journal story titled, "Hall-Long plagued by calls to drop out."
What little polling there is has shown New Castle County Castle Executive Matt Meyer to be Hall-Long’s main primary rival, but supporters of a third candidate are hoping to change that. The National Resources Defense Council announced this week that it and allied groups were deploying $500,000 to support National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara. This effort includes an ad where several animals tout O'Mara as an environmental champion who has "stood up to big polluters to support pals like us."
● AZ-01: The Associated Press projects that former state Rep. Amish Shah has won Tuesday's six-way Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert. Shah, who would be the first Indian American to represent Arizona in Congress, leads businessman Andrei Cherny 24-21 with an estimated 93% reporting.
Joe Biden carried the 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, by a tight 50-49 margin in 2020, and both parties have been preparing for an expensive battle for this seat. The DCCC and its allies at House Majority PAC have booked $7.9 million in ad time here, while the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved $7 million to defend Schweikert.
● MI-08: Retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee this week called out businessman Matt Collier for running a commercial ahead of next week's Democratic primary that involves the memory of Kildee's late uncle and immediate predecessor―a man the younger Kildee says that Collier once considered challenging as a Republican.
Collier, explains the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke, worked for then-Rep. Dale Kildee in the years before he won his sole term as mayor of Flint in 1987. Collier's spot features a photo of the two together as the on-screen text highlights how the candidate "served as Congressman Dale Kildee's District Director."
Dan Kildee, though, says that they weren't so friendly after Collier lost reelection in 1993. "I can't speak for my Uncle Dale," the congressman tells Burke, "But I know he was personally pretty decently disappointed and hurt when Matt made some indication back in the '90s that he was considering running against Dale as a Republican, given that Dale gave him this incredible opportunity to be his district director that put him in a position to run for mayor." Kildee, who led his uncle's campaigns back then, adds that he remembers a Flint Journal story from 1996 about Collier's interest in running.
Collier, who did not campaign as a Republican in 1996 or any other year, is the underdog in next week's Democratic primary for Michigan's 8th District, which is one of the most competitive House seats in the nation. The frontrunner is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is also on the ballot next week.
● NH-02: EMILYs List has publicized a mid-July internal poll from GQR that shows its endorsed candidate, former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander, leading former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern 43-27 in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary. The last poll we saw in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster was a Public Policy Polling survey conducted around that same time for another pro-Goodlander group, Principled Veterans Fund, and it showed her winning 35-13.
Van Ostern's campaign, meanwhile, has highlighted that it only began running TV ads shortly after these polls were conducted, while Goodlander and her allies were on the air during the preceding weeks.
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Leading Off
● VA-05: Thursday's recount confirmed state Sen. John McGuire's tight victory against House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good in the June 18 Republican primary for Virginia's conservative 5th District. McGuire finished with a 370-vote advantage over the head of Congress' notorious far-right bloc, a slight drop from the 374-vote lead he began the day with, and the incumbent conceded that evening.
Good's narrow defeat, which comes after he infuriated Donald Trump by endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' doomed presidential bid, puts him in a small club that nobody wants to be in―and no, it's not the Freedom Caucus.
As Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin wrote last month, Good is one of just 13 House members over the past five decades who defeated an incumbent for renomination before losing to an intraparty challenger themselves. This doesn't include four other representatives who went on to lose an incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary following redistricting.
But unlike other members of what Rubashkin has dubbed the "'primary-in, primary-out' club," Good never had to face a primary until this year. In 2020, the Virginian successfully challenged freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman, who infuriated hard-liners by officiating a same-sex wedding between two of his former campaign volunteers, at a party nominating convention—an event that just so happened to take place at Good’s own church.
Good had no trouble winning renomination at the Republican convention in 2022, but he faced a very different battle this time around. A law passed in 2021 required that all absentee voters have the chance to take part in nomination contests, a policy that made it difficult for political parties in Virginia to hold conventions rather than primaries. That shift may have made all the difference in an expensive battle where McGuire's big financial advantage and support from Trump were only barely enough for him to defeat the Freedom Caucus chair.
The "primary-in, primary-out" bloc also grew one week after Good's contest when New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who won his seat in 2020 after defeating Rep. Eliot Engel for renomination, lost his own Democratic primary to Westchester County Executive George Latimer.
And it will expand again next week if Missouri Rep. Cori Bush is unable to fend off St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell in a Democratic primary where she's being badly outspent. Bush herself defeated Rep. Lacy Clay in 2020 in her second campaign against him, a victory that made Clay the first Missouri House member to lose renomination to a challenger in more than five decades.
Election Recaps
● TN-05: Freshman Rep. Andy Ogles held off Metro Nashville Councilmember Courtney Johnston 57-43 in Thursday's expensive Republican primary for Tennessee's 5th District.
Ogles spent his first term in office dealing with a series of scandals, including the revelation that he appears to have fabricated much of his life story. The congressman, however, still had Donald Trump on his side, which helped him overcome Johnston's well-funded effort to oust him.
Republicans two years ago gerrymandered the once reliably blue 5th District by dividing Nashville among three different constituencies, and Ogles should have no trouble in the general election in a constituency that Trump carried 55-43 in 2020.
We may hear a lot more from the Tennessean soon, though. Punchbowl News reported last month that Ogles planned to run to lead the far-right Freedom Caucus if he both won renomination and the recount in Virginia confirmed that Chair Bob Good lost his own June primary―both of which came to pass on Thursday.
Senate
● MI-Sen: Americans for Prosperity tells the New York Post that it will spend $1.7 million on ads this month to aid former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is the favorite to win next week's Republican primary.
Governors
● DE-Gov: Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s team announced Wednesday that it was taking on a new campaign manager and parting ways with two senior staffers six weeks ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for governor, a move that comes after several bad days for the candidate.
State election officials last week released a report that concluded that Hall-Long violated state campaign finance law by failing to disclose nearly $300,000 that her campaign paid to her husband over the past several years to repay what they claimed were personal loans to the campaign. The news has led to several unwelcome headlines for Hall-Long, including a Delaware News Journal story titled, "Hall-Long plagued by calls to drop out."
What little polling there is has shown New Castle County Castle Executive Matt Meyer to be Hall-Long’s main primary rival, but supporters of a third candidate are hoping to change that. The National Resources Defense Council announced this week that it and allied groups were deploying $500,000 to support National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara. This effort includes an ad where several animals tout O'Mara as an environmental champion who has "stood up to big polluters to support pals like us."
House
● AZ-01: The Associated Press projects that former state Rep. Amish Shah has won Tuesday's six-way Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert. Shah, who would be the first Indian American to represent Arizona in Congress, leads businessman Andrei Cherny 24-21 with an estimated 93% reporting.
Joe Biden carried the 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, by a tight 50-49 margin in 2020, and both parties have been preparing for an expensive battle for this seat. The DCCC and its allies at House Majority PAC have booked $7.9 million in ad time here, while the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved $7 million to defend Schweikert.
● MI-08: Retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee this week called out businessman Matt Collier for running a commercial ahead of next week's Democratic primary that involves the memory of Kildee's late uncle and immediate predecessor―a man the younger Kildee says that Collier once considered challenging as a Republican.
Collier, explains the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke, worked for then-Rep. Dale Kildee in the years before he won his sole term as mayor of Flint in 1987. Collier's spot features a photo of the two together as the on-screen text highlights how the candidate "served as Congressman Dale Kildee's District Director."
Dan Kildee, though, says that they weren't so friendly after Collier lost reelection in 1993. "I can't speak for my Uncle Dale," the congressman tells Burke, "But I know he was personally pretty decently disappointed and hurt when Matt made some indication back in the '90s that he was considering running against Dale as a Republican, given that Dale gave him this incredible opportunity to be his district director that put him in a position to run for mayor." Kildee, who led his uncle's campaigns back then, adds that he remembers a Flint Journal story from 1996 about Collier's interest in running.
Collier, who did not campaign as a Republican in 1996 or any other year, is the underdog in next week's Democratic primary for Michigan's 8th District, which is one of the most competitive House seats in the nation. The frontrunner is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is also on the ballot next week.
● NH-02: EMILYs List has publicized a mid-July internal poll from GQR that shows its endorsed candidate, former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander, leading former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern 43-27 in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary. The last poll we saw in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster was a Public Policy Polling survey conducted around that same time for another pro-Goodlander group, Principled Veterans Fund, and it showed her winning 35-13.
Van Ostern's campaign, meanwhile, has highlighted that it only began running TV ads shortly after these polls were conducted, while Goodlander and her allies were on the air during the preceding weeks.
Poll Pile
- OH-Sen: Impact Research (D) and Fabrizio Ward (R) for the AARP: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 46, Bernie Moreno (R): 42 (52-42 Trump in two-way, 48-39 Trump with third-party candidates)
Ad Roundup
- PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc) - anti-Dave McCormick (R)
- MO-Gov: Mike Kehoe (R); Kehoe - anti-Jay Ashcroft (R) and anti-Bill Eigel (R)
- OH-09: Marcy Kaptur (D-inc) (here and here)
- OR-04: Monique DeSpain (R) - anti-Val Hoyle (D-inc)