The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Embedded Content
● SD Ballot: A trio of proposed constitutional amendments could bring historic changes to South Dakota in 2024, including one that would end the state's near-total ban on abortion. Another amendment would introduce the top-two primary to this dark red state, while a third would prevent the legislature from amending or repealing voter-approved ballot measures for seven years after passage.
The abortion proposal would partially invalidate a 2005 bill that made it a felony to seek or perform the procedure for any reason other than to save the life of the mother, a law that automatically went into effect after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. This amendment would specifically bar the state from imposing regulations on abortion access during the first trimester of pregnancy.
It also establishes that during the second trimester, "the State may regulate the pregnant woman's abortion decision and its effectuation only in ways that are reasonably related to the physical health of the pregnant woman." For the final trimester, the state would be permitted to retain the status quo. We haven't seen any polling asking voters specifically about this proposal, but backers may face headwinds: Civiqs finds that 55% of the state's voters believe that abortion should be illegal all or most of the time, while 41% say the opposite.
History, however, also offers them some hope. Proponents argue that South Dakotans deserve a say in the state's abortion policies, which is exactly what happened in 2006 after the legislature passed a different law to immediately outlaw abortion in almost all situations. That bill, which the New York Times called "the nation's most sweeping state abortion ban," was an attempt to get the nation's highest court to reconsider Roe, but it never went into effect. Pro-choice advocates instead collected enough signatures to allow voters to approve or reject the law; they chose the latter option by a 56-44 margin. A similar measure also went down in defeat two years later by a comparable spread.
However, not all abortion rights groups are behind the new effort. The Mitchell Republic reported in May that the amendment did "not yet have the institutional backing of Planned Parenthood," while a recent Times article said the local Planned Parenthood affiliate "doesn't support the measure, believing it does not go far enough." Organizers have until May of next year to turn in just over 35,000 signatures, which represents 10% of the total number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election, to qualify for the general election ballot. Any amendment that makes it before voters would need to win a simple majority to pass.
An unrelated measure, meanwhile, would change the way elections are held in the state by replacing partisan primaries with the top-two system that's in place in California and Washington. All candidates would run on one ballot and the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, would advance to the general election. The proposal would impact future races for governor, Congress, state legislature, and county-level posts.
The campaign to promote that amendment, South Dakota Open Primaries, argues that the top-two system would help elect more moderate options in a place where Republicans have won every statewide race since 2010. Tom Heinz, who serves on the campaign's board of directors, also told KELO in April that the current setup, where Republicans only allow people registered with their party to vote in their primaries, hurts independents like himself. (Democrats let unaffiliated voters cast a ballot in their nomination contests.) The head of the state GOP, meanwhile, declared to South Dakota Searchlight, "We are 110% opposed to the idea."
Finally, a third amendment would prevent the legislature from altering or repealing ballot measures that do not amend the constitution and are instead statutory in nature until they've been in force for at least seven years.
Legislators currently have the power to override statutory ballot measures as soon as voters approve them—and in fact they did just that in 2017, when they repealed an expansive voter-approved ethics reform law. And unlike in 2006, voters didn't get to have a say on what happened next because that repeal bill also declared a "state of emergency," which allowed the rollback to take effect immediately and made it immune to a veto referendum.
South Dakota's amendment and ballot measure process gives progressives a chance to pass favorable policies in a state where Republicans have held a lock on the governorship since the 1978 elections―the longest-running gubernatorial winning streak for either party―and enjoy massive supermajorities in both the state House and Senate.
Notably, progressives passed an amendment to expand eligibility to Medicaid 56-44. That win came months after voters overwhelmingly rejected a GOP-crafted amendment that would have required many future constitutional amendments to earn at least 60% of the vote in order to become law. A 2018 amendment to make it harder to pass ballot measures related to taxes and spending also went down in defeat, though as we saw this month in Ohio, red state Republicans remain adamant about convincing voters to give up their own power.
● American political parties might often seem stuck in their ways, but they can and in fact do change positions often. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is political scientist David Karol, who tells us how and why both the Democratic and Republican parties have adjusted their views on a wide range of issues over the years. Karol offers three different models for how these transformations happen—and explains why voters often stick with their parties even after these shifts. He concludes by offering tips to activists seeking to push their parties when they're not changing fast enough.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive deep into an unexpected downballot angle to the latest Trump indictment, telling the story of state Sen. Shawn Still, who was charged as part of the plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Still's fellow Republicans drew on the same anti-democratic playbook to help elect him by gerrymandering a district in the Atlanta suburbs, but the GOP can only hold the region's dramatic move to the left at bay for so long. The Davids also recap an unusual development in a major redistricting case in Florida that could result in a Black Democratic congressman having his district restored after Ron DeSantis dismantled it last year.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.
● TX-Sen: Rep. Colin Allred has publicized an endorsement from fellow Rep. Marc Veasey for next year's Democratic primary.
● KY-Gov: Republican Daniel Cameron continues to make attacks on transgender people the centerpiece of his campaign in his newest ad, which comes after his allies have spent months slamming Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear for vetoing a bill in March that bans gender-affirming care for young people. (The GOP-run legislature quickly overrode that veto.)
Protect Freedom PAC, which is run by allies of Sen. Rand Paul, meanwhile is trying a different approach with a piece that highlights how numerous students in Louisville's public schools were picked up or dropped off hours late on the first day of classes earlier this month. The narrator is vague on how Beshear is to blame for any of this, though, claiming only that he "fails to act on numerous solutions before him, including a plan to give parents the right to send their child to their neighborhood school." The on-screen text accompanying that line cites an Associated Press article that does not even mention Beshear; instead, it says that local lawmakers "signaled that they will push for legislation ensuring that students have the right to attend their neighborhood schools."
Jason Bailey, who heads the progressive Kentucky Center for Economic Policy, wrote an op-ed in the Courier Journal earlier in the week arguing that the GOP-dominated legislature was largely to blame for what happened. "Paying the full cost of busing kids to and from school is a state responsibility under law," he wrote, "But it's a responsibility the legislature chose not to fulfill every year since 2005."
Beshear himself is also running a commercial that stars two elected officials in dark red territory defending him from earlier GOP attacks. "Beshear followed Trump's lead for early release of non-violent offenders during COVID," Lawrenceburg Mayor Troy Young tells the audience. "More state troopers, raises for cops, and anything that we need, Beshear gets it done," affirms Floyd County Sheriff John Hunt.
● CA-49: Marine veteran Kate Monroe announced Tuesday that she was joining the top-two primary to face Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, with the Republican telling Fox News, "We're facing a lot of the woke ideology." That style of hard-right rhetoric may not play well should she make it to the general election, though: Joe Biden carried this seat, which includes coastal communities north of San Diego, 55-43.
● MN-05: Former Minneapolis City Council Member Don Samuels' 2022 campaign manager confirms to the Star Tribune that his old boss is contemplating a Democratic primary rematch against Rep. Ilhan Omar, a development that came a week after Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel first reported that Samuels was considering another try after losing just 50-48. The former councilman is "speaking with supporters and other potential candidates and weighing the best course forward," said Joe Radinovich, who himself was the unsuccessful 2018 Democratic nominee against Republican Pete Stauber up north in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District.
The paper also checks in with current City Council Member LaTrisha Vetaw, who Kassel also said was mulling a campaign, and she didn't rule anything out. Vetaw, who is up for reelection this November, said she values the people "who have asked me to consider running for a higher office" but is "focused on doing my job." She concluded, "I have no other plans at this moment."
The only person who actually has announced an intra-party bid against Omar so far is attorney Sarah Gad, who challenged Illinois Rep. Bobby Rush for the Democratic nod in 2020 and lost 71-10. "I didn't actually think that I had a shot at beating Bobby Rush," says Gad, who grew up in Minnesota and returned after her first campaign. "I just wanted to make some noise about some issues that I was passionate about." (Running for office four years after losing a primary to Rush worked out well for at least one person!)
● RI-01: State Sen. Sandra Cano earned an endorsement from the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals on Wednesday, a move that comes not long after the state's other major teachers union, the state NEA, also backed her.
● TX-15: 2022 Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo's rematch campaign against freshman GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz has earned an endorsement from 20th District Rep. Joaquin Castro, a prominent Texas Democrat who serves a nearby constituency. Vallejo remains the only notable candidate in the race to win back this 51-48 Trump seat in the Rio Grande Valley that De La Cruz flipped last year.
● Aurora, CO Mayor: Nonprofit head Rob Andrews announced Tuesday that he was dropping out and endorsing City Councilmember Juan Marcano, who is now the only Democrat seeking to unseat Republican Mayor Mike Coffman on Nov. 7. There's no primary or runoff in this officially nonpartisan contest, and Andrews acknowledged that his continued presence could have split the anti-Coffman vote in a year where progressives are looking to take control of the local government.
Aurora's filing deadline is Aug. 29, so the field may not be completely set yet. Indeed, the Aurora Sentinel writes that a registered Democrat named Kirk Denem Manzanares has filed paperwork to raise money for a mayoral bid, though there's no other information about the newcomer.
● Cook County, IL State's Attorney: The leadership of the Cook County Democratic Party voted Monday to endorse attorney Clayton Harris in next year's primary to succeed retiring incumbent Kim Foxx, a move the Chicago Sun-Times says "promises to power Harris' campaign with money and political foot soldiers." Former Illinois Appellate Court Justice Eileen O'Neill Burke, who is the only other declared Democrat, responded to the news by reaffirming that she'd continue her campaign.
Embedded Content
Leading Off
● SD Ballot: A trio of proposed constitutional amendments could bring historic changes to South Dakota in 2024, including one that would end the state's near-total ban on abortion. Another amendment would introduce the top-two primary to this dark red state, while a third would prevent the legislature from amending or repealing voter-approved ballot measures for seven years after passage.
The abortion proposal would partially invalidate a 2005 bill that made it a felony to seek or perform the procedure for any reason other than to save the life of the mother, a law that automatically went into effect after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. This amendment would specifically bar the state from imposing regulations on abortion access during the first trimester of pregnancy.
It also establishes that during the second trimester, "the State may regulate the pregnant woman's abortion decision and its effectuation only in ways that are reasonably related to the physical health of the pregnant woman." For the final trimester, the state would be permitted to retain the status quo. We haven't seen any polling asking voters specifically about this proposal, but backers may face headwinds: Civiqs finds that 55% of the state's voters believe that abortion should be illegal all or most of the time, while 41% say the opposite.
History, however, also offers them some hope. Proponents argue that South Dakotans deserve a say in the state's abortion policies, which is exactly what happened in 2006 after the legislature passed a different law to immediately outlaw abortion in almost all situations. That bill, which the New York Times called "the nation's most sweeping state abortion ban," was an attempt to get the nation's highest court to reconsider Roe, but it never went into effect. Pro-choice advocates instead collected enough signatures to allow voters to approve or reject the law; they chose the latter option by a 56-44 margin. A similar measure also went down in defeat two years later by a comparable spread.
However, not all abortion rights groups are behind the new effort. The Mitchell Republic reported in May that the amendment did "not yet have the institutional backing of Planned Parenthood," while a recent Times article said the local Planned Parenthood affiliate "doesn't support the measure, believing it does not go far enough." Organizers have until May of next year to turn in just over 35,000 signatures, which represents 10% of the total number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election, to qualify for the general election ballot. Any amendment that makes it before voters would need to win a simple majority to pass.
An unrelated measure, meanwhile, would change the way elections are held in the state by replacing partisan primaries with the top-two system that's in place in California and Washington. All candidates would run on one ballot and the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, would advance to the general election. The proposal would impact future races for governor, Congress, state legislature, and county-level posts.
The campaign to promote that amendment, South Dakota Open Primaries, argues that the top-two system would help elect more moderate options in a place where Republicans have won every statewide race since 2010. Tom Heinz, who serves on the campaign's board of directors, also told KELO in April that the current setup, where Republicans only allow people registered with their party to vote in their primaries, hurts independents like himself. (Democrats let unaffiliated voters cast a ballot in their nomination contests.) The head of the state GOP, meanwhile, declared to South Dakota Searchlight, "We are 110% opposed to the idea."
Finally, a third amendment would prevent the legislature from altering or repealing ballot measures that do not amend the constitution and are instead statutory in nature until they've been in force for at least seven years.
Legislators currently have the power to override statutory ballot measures as soon as voters approve them—and in fact they did just that in 2017, when they repealed an expansive voter-approved ethics reform law. And unlike in 2006, voters didn't get to have a say on what happened next because that repeal bill also declared a "state of emergency," which allowed the rollback to take effect immediately and made it immune to a veto referendum.
South Dakota's amendment and ballot measure process gives progressives a chance to pass favorable policies in a state where Republicans have held a lock on the governorship since the 1978 elections―the longest-running gubernatorial winning streak for either party―and enjoy massive supermajorities in both the state House and Senate.
Notably, progressives passed an amendment to expand eligibility to Medicaid 56-44. That win came months after voters overwhelmingly rejected a GOP-crafted amendment that would have required many future constitutional amendments to earn at least 60% of the vote in order to become law. A 2018 amendment to make it harder to pass ballot measures related to taxes and spending also went down in defeat, though as we saw this month in Ohio, red state Republicans remain adamant about convincing voters to give up their own power.
The Downballot
● American political parties might often seem stuck in their ways, but they can and in fact do change positions often. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is political scientist David Karol, who tells us how and why both the Democratic and Republican parties have adjusted their views on a wide range of issues over the years. Karol offers three different models for how these transformations happen—and explains why voters often stick with their parties even after these shifts. He concludes by offering tips to activists seeking to push their parties when they're not changing fast enough.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive deep into an unexpected downballot angle to the latest Trump indictment, telling the story of state Sen. Shawn Still, who was charged as part of the plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Still's fellow Republicans drew on the same anti-democratic playbook to help elect him by gerrymandering a district in the Atlanta suburbs, but the GOP can only hold the region's dramatic move to the left at bay for so long. The Davids also recap an unusual development in a major redistricting case in Florida that could result in a Black Democratic congressman having his district restored after Ron DeSantis dismantled it last year.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time.
Senate
● TX-Sen: Rep. Colin Allred has publicized an endorsement from fellow Rep. Marc Veasey for next year's Democratic primary.
Governors
● KY-Gov: Republican Daniel Cameron continues to make attacks on transgender people the centerpiece of his campaign in his newest ad, which comes after his allies have spent months slamming Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear for vetoing a bill in March that bans gender-affirming care for young people. (The GOP-run legislature quickly overrode that veto.)
Protect Freedom PAC, which is run by allies of Sen. Rand Paul, meanwhile is trying a different approach with a piece that highlights how numerous students in Louisville's public schools were picked up or dropped off hours late on the first day of classes earlier this month. The narrator is vague on how Beshear is to blame for any of this, though, claiming only that he "fails to act on numerous solutions before him, including a plan to give parents the right to send their child to their neighborhood school." The on-screen text accompanying that line cites an Associated Press article that does not even mention Beshear; instead, it says that local lawmakers "signaled that they will push for legislation ensuring that students have the right to attend their neighborhood schools."
Jason Bailey, who heads the progressive Kentucky Center for Economic Policy, wrote an op-ed in the Courier Journal earlier in the week arguing that the GOP-dominated legislature was largely to blame for what happened. "Paying the full cost of busing kids to and from school is a state responsibility under law," he wrote, "But it's a responsibility the legislature chose not to fulfill every year since 2005."
Beshear himself is also running a commercial that stars two elected officials in dark red territory defending him from earlier GOP attacks. "Beshear followed Trump's lead for early release of non-violent offenders during COVID," Lawrenceburg Mayor Troy Young tells the audience. "More state troopers, raises for cops, and anything that we need, Beshear gets it done," affirms Floyd County Sheriff John Hunt.
House
● CA-49: Marine veteran Kate Monroe announced Tuesday that she was joining the top-two primary to face Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, with the Republican telling Fox News, "We're facing a lot of the woke ideology." That style of hard-right rhetoric may not play well should she make it to the general election, though: Joe Biden carried this seat, which includes coastal communities north of San Diego, 55-43.
● MN-05: Former Minneapolis City Council Member Don Samuels' 2022 campaign manager confirms to the Star Tribune that his old boss is contemplating a Democratic primary rematch against Rep. Ilhan Omar, a development that came a week after Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel first reported that Samuels was considering another try after losing just 50-48. The former councilman is "speaking with supporters and other potential candidates and weighing the best course forward," said Joe Radinovich, who himself was the unsuccessful 2018 Democratic nominee against Republican Pete Stauber up north in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District.
The paper also checks in with current City Council Member LaTrisha Vetaw, who Kassel also said was mulling a campaign, and she didn't rule anything out. Vetaw, who is up for reelection this November, said she values the people "who have asked me to consider running for a higher office" but is "focused on doing my job." She concluded, "I have no other plans at this moment."
The only person who actually has announced an intra-party bid against Omar so far is attorney Sarah Gad, who challenged Illinois Rep. Bobby Rush for the Democratic nod in 2020 and lost 71-10. "I didn't actually think that I had a shot at beating Bobby Rush," says Gad, who grew up in Minnesota and returned after her first campaign. "I just wanted to make some noise about some issues that I was passionate about." (Running for office four years after losing a primary to Rush worked out well for at least one person!)
● RI-01: State Sen. Sandra Cano earned an endorsement from the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals on Wednesday, a move that comes not long after the state's other major teachers union, the state NEA, also backed her.
● TX-15: 2022 Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo's rematch campaign against freshman GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz has earned an endorsement from 20th District Rep. Joaquin Castro, a prominent Texas Democrat who serves a nearby constituency. Vallejo remains the only notable candidate in the race to win back this 51-48 Trump seat in the Rio Grande Valley that De La Cruz flipped last year.
Mayors
● Aurora, CO Mayor: Nonprofit head Rob Andrews announced Tuesday that he was dropping out and endorsing City Councilmember Juan Marcano, who is now the only Democrat seeking to unseat Republican Mayor Mike Coffman on Nov. 7. There's no primary or runoff in this officially nonpartisan contest, and Andrews acknowledged that his continued presence could have split the anti-Coffman vote in a year where progressives are looking to take control of the local government.
Aurora's filing deadline is Aug. 29, so the field may not be completely set yet. Indeed, the Aurora Sentinel writes that a registered Democrat named Kirk Denem Manzanares has filed paperwork to raise money for a mayoral bid, though there's no other information about the newcomer.
Prosecutors
● Cook County, IL State's Attorney: The leadership of the Cook County Democratic Party voted Monday to endorse attorney Clayton Harris in next year's primary to succeed retiring incumbent Kim Foxx, a move the Chicago Sun-Times says "promises to power Harris' campaign with money and political foot soldiers." Former Illinois Appellate Court Justice Eileen O'Neill Burke, who is the only other declared Democrat, responded to the news by reaffirming that she'd continue her campaign.