The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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● New York City, NY Mayor: New York City Comptroller Brad Lander announced Tuesday that he would take on Mayor Eric Adams in next June's instant-runoff Democratic primary, a declaration that makes Lander the first major challenger to announce a campaign.
Lander's 2021 win made him one of the most influential progressives in America's largest city, but he'll almost certainly need to get past several other Democrats also looking to oust the unpopular Adams, whose approval rating sank to record lows over the winter. Two local politicians, former city Comptroller Scott Stringer and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, each formed an exploratory committee earlier this year.
Several other Big Apple Democrats may get in as well, including disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Two unnamed sources tell Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel that Cuomo, who, like Adams, has a bad relationship with progressives, plans to announce his own campaign against Adams "likely later this year." However, other people aren't so sure, and they tell Kassel that Cuomo's ultimate decision "will hinge on the mayor’s legal situation." (There's also chatter about Cuomo running for his old job in 2026.)
Lander, for his part, did not allude to the ongoing federal corruption probe involving Adams in his Tuesday kickoff video, or even mention the incumbent by name. The comptroller instead bemoans that New Yorkers "travel too long to work too many hours to pay too much rent to worry so much and feel so unsafe." Lander continues, "[W]e can replace a leader when they fail the basic tests of the job: to be honest with us, to keep our families safe, to make sure our kids learn."
Adams and his allies, though, view his record in office―and the people criticizing it―very differently. They've argued that Adams, whose 2021 win made him New York City's second Black mayor, has been on the receiving end of the kind of unfair attacks that helped doom its first Black mayor three decades ago.
Civil rights leader Al Sharpton this month used his op-ed in the New York Daily News to declare that Adams, just like the late David Dinkins, is being portrayed as "incompetent" and a "failure" when he has plenty of accomplishments to point to. Sharpton argued that while Republican Rudy Guliani successfully utilized these labels to unseat Dinkins in 1993, "we cannot let Adams be treated with the same unfairness."
The mayor himself agreed with Sharpton and told reporters, "When I first took office, I went back and looked at some of the things they were saying about David Dinkins." Adams continued, "Coded words. ‘Incompetence.’ We know what that means."
The New York Times' Emma Fitzsimmons notes that Lander's bid against Adams makes this the first time since 1989 that a mayor faced another citywide elected official in a primary. Comptroller Harrison Goldin's campaign against three-term Mayor Ed Koch, though, gained little traction, and Koch instead lost renomination that year to then-Manhattan Borough President Dinkins.
Goldin's failure, though, is only one part of a decades-long pattern that Lander would need to overcome. The last person to successfully make the jump from comptroller to mayor was Democrat Abe Beame, in 1973, on his second try, and he lost renomination four years later to Koch.
Five other comptrollers have unsuccessfully campaigned for the city's top job since then, and while Stringer seemed like he had a good chance to break this curse in 2021, his first mayoral campaign failed after two women accused him of sexual misconduct. Stringer, who denies the allegations, is raising money for his widely anticipated second try next year.
● AZ-Sen (R): Election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake scored a clear, but hardly dominant, victory over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in a Republican primary that seemed to be all but over months ago. The 2022 gubernatorial nominee, who has Donald Trump and the NRSC in her corner, leads the underfunded Lamb 55-39 as of Wednesday morning, with the Associated Press estimating that 80% of the vote has been tabulated.
Lake will now take on Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who had no primary opposition, in the general election to succeed retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat turned independent who still belongs to the Democratic caucus. Gallego is making full use of his huge financial advantage over Lake, whom some national Republicans are skeptical can win in this swing state: AdImpact reports that Gallego and his allies have reserved $42.6 million in ads for the general election, compared to $6.9 million for Lake’s side.
What follows is a look at where Arizona's other key primaries stand as of Wednesday morning at 8 a.m. ET. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race.
Note that, because election authorities still need to verify the signatures of voters who dropped off their ballots at voting centers on Election Day, a significant number of votes still need to be tabulated, so the margins in each of these races may shift. We'll be citing the Associated Press' estimate of what percentage of the vote has already been counted.
● AZ-01 (D): Former state Rep. Amish Shah holds a small 24-21 lead over businessman Andrei Cherny with an estimated 77% reporting, but the AP has not yet called the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert. A third Democrat, former local TV anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, is also at 21%, while finance executive Conor O'Callaghan is a close fourth with 18%.
Schweikert, for his part, leads a little-known GOP foe 63-27 with an estimated 78% in, which is not an impressive showing for a seven-term incumbent. Joe Biden carried the 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, 50-49 in 2020.
● AZ-02 (R): Freshman Rep. Eli Crane easily turned back former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith: Crane, who was one of the eight Republicans who ended Kevin McCarthy's speakership last year, leads 80-20 with an estimated 75% in. While there was talk that McCarthy's "revenge tour" could make a stop in this northeastern Arizona constituency, the former speaker's forces largely left Smith to fend for himself.
Crane will now take on former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, who won his Democratic primary with no opposition. Trump won the 2nd District 53-45 four years ago.
● AZ-03 (D): Former Phoenix City Councilmember Yassamin Ansari leads former state Sen. Raquel Terán 46-43 with an estimated 77% reporting, though the AP has not issued a call. The winner should have no trouble succeeding their fellow Democrat, Senate nominee Ruben Gallego, in a safely blue seat based in downtown and western Phoenix.
● AZ-06 (R): Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani pulled off an underwhelming victory in his GOP primary rematch against conservative talk radio host Kathleen Winn, who challenged the vulnerable congressman from the right. Ciscomani leads Winn 59-41 with an estimated 77% in; two years ago, Winn took third place in the primary for what was an open seat.
Ciscomani will now face an even more difficult rematch against former state Sen. Kirsten Engel, the Democrat he beat 51-49 in 2022. Biden carried the 6th District, which includes southeastern Arizona and the eastern Tucson area, by a tight 49.3-49.2 margin four years ago.
● AZ-08 (R): Attorney Abe Hamadeh leads venture capitalist Blake Masters 30-25 with an estimated 79% reporting, but the AP has not yet issued a call in the ugly GOP primary to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko. State House Speaker Ben Toma, who has Lesko's endorsement, is in third with 21%; former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned in 2017 following a shocking sex scandal, lags in fourth with 17%.
Trump four years ago scored a 56-43 win in the 8th District, which is based in the western suburbs of Phoenix.
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff (D & R): Former Phoenix police officer Tyler Kamp and Jerry Sheridan, a former deputy chief in the Sheriff's Office, will face off after respectively winning the Democratic and Republican primaries for sheriff of Arizona's largest county. This will be a closely watched general election in a county that Biden carried 50-48 in 2020.
Kamp dispatched incumbent Russ Skinner, whom the Republican majority on the county Board of Supervisors appointed in February after Skinner's boss, Democratic Sheriff Paul Penzone, resigned to take a job in the health insurance industry. Kamp's lead stands at 55-45 with an estimated 77% in.
The supervisors were required to pick someone from Penzone's party to replace him, and Skinner qualified after he switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democratic one day after Penzone announced his departure. But while Kamp also only registered as a Democrat last year, he successfully reminded voters that his rival had served under the infamous Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
On the GOP side, Sheridan scored a clear win over former state Department of Public Safety Director Frank Milstead; he leads 51-28 with an estimated 81% in.
Sheridan was once the right-hand man to Arpaio, who lost reelection to Penzone in 2016. The two former allies, though, came into conflict four years later when Sheridan narrowly defeated Arpaio in the primary to reclaim his old job. Sheridan went on to lose to Penzone in a 56-44 landslide as Biden was becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Maricopa County since Harry Truman in 1948.
Arpaio endorsed Milstead this time, but it was far from enough. The former six-term sheriff also got another reminder of his rapidly diminishing relevance on Tuesday when he took a distant third place in the contest for mayor of Fountain Hills, a 24,000-person community that's home to one of the largest water fountains in the world. This represents the fifth electoral defeat in a row for the 92-year-old Arpaio, who spent decades as one of the most powerful Republicans in the state.
● Maricopa County, AZ Attorney (R): Incumbent Rachel Mitchell won her Republican primary rematch against former local prosecutor Gina Godbehere, who portrayed Maricopa County's top prosecutor as weak on crime. Mitchell leads Godbehere 58-42 with an estimated 81% in, which is similar to her 57-43 victory in the 2022 special election primary. Mitchell will now face attorney Tamika Wooten, who had no Democratic primary opposition.
● Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors (R): Hardliner Mark Stewart decisively unseated Supervisor Jack Sellers in the GOP primary for a key constituency that Democrats need to flip to take their first majority on the five-member Board of Supervisors since 1968. Stewart, who is a member of the Chandler City Council, leads 65-35 with an estimated 81% reporting in the GOP primary for the 1st District.
Like each of his colleagues, Sellers has spent years on the receiving end of harassment, including death threats, from election conspiracy theorists who are furious that supervisors certified the results of the 2020 and 2022 elections. Stewart, for his part, has refused to say whether Biden or Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs were rightfully elected or if he'd have certified their respective victories.
The Democratic candidate is Tempe City Council member Joel Navarro, who last year correctly predicted that Sellers, whom he said was doing a "wonderful job," wouldn't win renomination. According to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, Biden carried this seat 51-48, and Stewart's win will make it a key pickup opportunity for Democrats.
Democrats have one other viable target in their quest to end the GOP's 4-1 majority, though Republicans in the 3rd District behaved a bit more pragmatically than their counterparts in Sellers' seat. Former state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, whom the Arizona Republic's Abe Kwok describes as relatively moderate, scored a landslide victory against attorney Tabatha LaVoie. Brophy McGee leads 73-27 with an estimated 81% in for the primary to replace retiring GOP Supervisor Bill Gates, who was diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder after being bombarded with death threats.
Brophy McGee will face former Phoenix City Council member Daniel Valenzuela, who had no Democratic primary opposition, in what will be a hotly contested race. Biden carried the 3rd District around Phoenix 54-45, so a win here and in the aforementioned 1st District would all but assure Democratic control of the Board of Supervisors. (The one Democrat who currently serves on the body, Supervisor Steve Gallardo, has nothing to worry about in his safely blue 5th District.)
There was also some drama in the remaining two conservative constituencies. Over in the 2nd District, GOP Supervisor Tom Galvin holds a 57-43 advantage over his far-right primary foe, former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, with an estimated 81% in, but the AP has not yet called the race. Trump prevailed 53-46 here four years ago.
The far-right, however, is all but assured to gain a foothold on the Board of Supervisors this cycle following GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko's primary win in the safely red 4th District, which is based in the region known as the West Valley. Lesko holds a wide 72-28 lead over Grand Canyon University professor Bob Branch with an estimated 81% reporting in the primary to succeed retiring GOP incumbent Clint Hickman.
Lesko, who has Trump's endorsement, belongs to the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, and voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Branch, however, was somehow even more outspoken about promoting election lies.
● Maricopa County, AZ Recorder (R): State Rep. Justin Heap denied renomination to incumbent Stephen Richer, who has used his position as election administrator for Arizona's largest county to push back on lies about the 2020 and 2022 elections. Heap leads 42-36 with an estimated 81% reporting.
While Heap, who belongs to the state's branch of the Freedom Caucus, has avoided statements expressing direct support for election denialism, he's promoted legislation supported by conspiracy theorists. Richer, by contrast, said in June he'd be casting his ballot for President Joe Biden, an admission that came shortly after news broke that a prominent GOP activist told a gathering, "f Stephen Richer walked in this room, I would lynch him."
The Democrats are fielding Tim Stringham, an Army and Navy veteran who said last year that he was already skeptical that Richer would even make it through the primary.
● UT-02: On Monday, Green Beret veteran Colby Jenkins officially asked Utah election officials to conduct a recount for the June 25 Republican primary, where certified results show him trailing Rep. Celeste Maloy by 214 votes. The Deseret News' Brigham Tomco writes that the process could conclude as late as Aug. 5.
● WI-08: State Sen. André Jacque has publicized an endorsement from Rep. Glenn Grothman, the 6th District congressman who has made a name for himself by railing against Kawanzaa, weekends, and "the angry feminist movement," ahead of the Aug. 13 Republican primary for the neighboring 8th District. Grothman's intervention comes at a time when Jacque is getting badly outraised by his two intraparty rivals, former state Sen. Roger Roth and businessman Tony Wied, and is facing unwelcome questions about the money he did bring in.
Wisconsin Politics first reported two weeks ago that Jacque used his state campaign account to donate about $24,000 to several associates, including fellow legislators, and that these people went on to give his congressional campaign almost $31,000. Jacque, who is prohibited from transferring money from his state-level account into his new effort, responded with a statement declaring, "Any suggestion that these contributions were meant to be reciprocated is entirely false and tarnishes the reputation of dedicated conservative lawmakers."
Jacque, however, already looked like the underdog in the primary contest to replace former Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Republican who resigned in April, in this conservative northeast Wisconsin seat. Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, has Donald Trump's endorsement, and he's used his personal wealth to outspend his two rivals.
Roth, though, has benefited from $500,000 in outside spending from Speak Free or Die PAC. That group is largely funded by Americans 4 Security, an outfit that helped House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole win renomination this year in Oklahoma.
This trio of Republicans will face off twice on Aug. 13: Once in the primary for the remainder of Gallagher's term, and once for the nomination for a seat in the new Congress. (Both general elections will be on Nov. 5.) Because the lineup for both races is the same, though, it's unlikely―though not impossible―that different candidates will win each primary. OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly has the Democratic side to herself as she tries to flip a Green Bay area constituency that Trump carried 57-41 four years ago.
● FL Ballot, FL-Sen: The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab finds a 69-23 majority in favor of the state's proposed abortion-rights amendment, which is above the 60% that Amendment 4 needs for passage. Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana, leads by a smaller 64-31 spread.
The poll meanwhile gives GOP Sen. Rick Scott a small 47-43 advantage over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the favorite to claim the Democratic nomination on Aug. 20. This is one of the smallest leads for Scott that any publicly released survey has shown, though we haven't seen any other polls here in about a month and a half. Respondents also favor Donald Trump 49-42 against Kamala Harris, with 4% opting for an unnamed third option.
● NE State Senate: Monday marked the end of an era in Nebraska politics when former state Sen. Ernie Chambers, a liberal independent whose 46 nonconsecutive years in office made him the longest-serving legislator in state history, dropped out of the race to reclaim his old seat. A local elections official relays that Chambers, who is 87, acknowledged that this likely meant the conclusion of his history-making career.
Chambers, whom the Omaha World-Herald dubbed "most famous Black man in Nebraska" in 2020, was first elected in 1970 to represent North Omaha, and he was often the sole lawmaker of color in the 49-member unicameral legislature.
Chambers made a name for himself over the decades by taking up unpopular causes in this conservative state, as well as for angering his colleagues with his rhetoric: To take just one example, he said of the American flag in 2019, "Every hateful thing that was done to Black people was done under the aegis of that rag."
However, his intricate knowledge of the chamber's rules helped make him a force during his long service. Notably, he repeatedly thwarted Republicans attempts to stop dividing Nebraska's electoral votes by congressional district; this preservation of the status quo allowed both Barack Obama and Joe Biden to win an electoral vote from the Omaha-based 2nd District in 2008 and 2020, respectively, even as they decisively lost the rest of the state.
Chambers made abolishing the death penalty one of his top priorities, and his decades-long quest temporarily succeeded in 2015, when he convinced enough Republicans in this officially nonpartisan body to override then-GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts' veto. Voters approved a ballot measure to reinstate capital punishment the next year, but Chambers still argued, "Getting the death penalty abolished, even though it was temporary, meant a great deal to me."
Chambers had more long-term success with laws to require district-level elections for several offices in the Omaha area, something that has helped more people of color win local office. He even attracted international attention in 1980, when he passed a measure that made Nebraska the first state to place sanctions on South Africa's apartheid government.
Chambers left the chamber following the 2008 election because of term limits, but he returned four years later by decisively unseating his successor, Democratic state Sen. Brenda Council. When Chambers became the first legislator to face term limits for a second time in 2020, he characteristically remarked, "The fact that the whole state was willing to change their constitution to get rid of me … so they didn’t have to listen to what I said is the highest compliment that could be paid to any human being."
Chambers initially waged another comeback bid against Democratic state Sen. Terrell McKinney. The two each took 45% of the vote in the May nonpartisan primary (McKinney finished four votes ahead), but their general election showdown was averted when Chambers ended this final campaign on Monday.
Correction: This piece has been updated to clarify that the general election spending for Arizona’s Senate race includes money from campaigns and allied organizations, not just campaigns. This piece has also corrected the spelling of Kirsten Engel’s first name.
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Leading Off
● New York City, NY Mayor: New York City Comptroller Brad Lander announced Tuesday that he would take on Mayor Eric Adams in next June's instant-runoff Democratic primary, a declaration that makes Lander the first major challenger to announce a campaign.
Lander's 2021 win made him one of the most influential progressives in America's largest city, but he'll almost certainly need to get past several other Democrats also looking to oust the unpopular Adams, whose approval rating sank to record lows over the winter. Two local politicians, former city Comptroller Scott Stringer and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, each formed an exploratory committee earlier this year.
Several other Big Apple Democrats may get in as well, including disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Two unnamed sources tell Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel that Cuomo, who, like Adams, has a bad relationship with progressives, plans to announce his own campaign against Adams "likely later this year." However, other people aren't so sure, and they tell Kassel that Cuomo's ultimate decision "will hinge on the mayor’s legal situation." (There's also chatter about Cuomo running for his old job in 2026.)
Lander, for his part, did not allude to the ongoing federal corruption probe involving Adams in his Tuesday kickoff video, or even mention the incumbent by name. The comptroller instead bemoans that New Yorkers "travel too long to work too many hours to pay too much rent to worry so much and feel so unsafe." Lander continues, "[W]e can replace a leader when they fail the basic tests of the job: to be honest with us, to keep our families safe, to make sure our kids learn."
Adams and his allies, though, view his record in office―and the people criticizing it―very differently. They've argued that Adams, whose 2021 win made him New York City's second Black mayor, has been on the receiving end of the kind of unfair attacks that helped doom its first Black mayor three decades ago.
Civil rights leader Al Sharpton this month used his op-ed in the New York Daily News to declare that Adams, just like the late David Dinkins, is being portrayed as "incompetent" and a "failure" when he has plenty of accomplishments to point to. Sharpton argued that while Republican Rudy Guliani successfully utilized these labels to unseat Dinkins in 1993, "we cannot let Adams be treated with the same unfairness."
The mayor himself agreed with Sharpton and told reporters, "When I first took office, I went back and looked at some of the things they were saying about David Dinkins." Adams continued, "Coded words. ‘Incompetence.’ We know what that means."
The New York Times' Emma Fitzsimmons notes that Lander's bid against Adams makes this the first time since 1989 that a mayor faced another citywide elected official in a primary. Comptroller Harrison Goldin's campaign against three-term Mayor Ed Koch, though, gained little traction, and Koch instead lost renomination that year to then-Manhattan Borough President Dinkins.
Goldin's failure, though, is only one part of a decades-long pattern that Lander would need to overcome. The last person to successfully make the jump from comptroller to mayor was Democrat Abe Beame, in 1973, on his second try, and he lost renomination four years later to Koch.
Five other comptrollers have unsuccessfully campaigned for the city's top job since then, and while Stringer seemed like he had a good chance to break this curse in 2021, his first mayoral campaign failed after two women accused him of sexual misconduct. Stringer, who denies the allegations, is raising money for his widely anticipated second try next year.
Election Recaps
● AZ-Sen (R): Election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake scored a clear, but hardly dominant, victory over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in a Republican primary that seemed to be all but over months ago. The 2022 gubernatorial nominee, who has Donald Trump and the NRSC in her corner, leads the underfunded Lamb 55-39 as of Wednesday morning, with the Associated Press estimating that 80% of the vote has been tabulated.
Lake will now take on Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who had no primary opposition, in the general election to succeed retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat turned independent who still belongs to the Democratic caucus. Gallego is making full use of his huge financial advantage over Lake, whom some national Republicans are skeptical can win in this swing state: AdImpact reports that Gallego and his allies have reserved $42.6 million in ads for the general election, compared to $6.9 million for Lake’s side.
What follows is a look at where Arizona's other key primaries stand as of Wednesday morning at 8 a.m. ET. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race.
Note that, because election authorities still need to verify the signatures of voters who dropped off their ballots at voting centers on Election Day, a significant number of votes still need to be tabulated, so the margins in each of these races may shift. We'll be citing the Associated Press' estimate of what percentage of the vote has already been counted.
● AZ-01 (D): Former state Rep. Amish Shah holds a small 24-21 lead over businessman Andrei Cherny with an estimated 77% reporting, but the AP has not yet called the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert. A third Democrat, former local TV anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, is also at 21%, while finance executive Conor O'Callaghan is a close fourth with 18%.
Schweikert, for his part, leads a little-known GOP foe 63-27 with an estimated 78% in, which is not an impressive showing for a seven-term incumbent. Joe Biden carried the 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, 50-49 in 2020.
● AZ-02 (R): Freshman Rep. Eli Crane easily turned back former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith: Crane, who was one of the eight Republicans who ended Kevin McCarthy's speakership last year, leads 80-20 with an estimated 75% in. While there was talk that McCarthy's "revenge tour" could make a stop in this northeastern Arizona constituency, the former speaker's forces largely left Smith to fend for himself.
Crane will now take on former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, who won his Democratic primary with no opposition. Trump won the 2nd District 53-45 four years ago.
● AZ-03 (D): Former Phoenix City Councilmember Yassamin Ansari leads former state Sen. Raquel Terán 46-43 with an estimated 77% reporting, though the AP has not issued a call. The winner should have no trouble succeeding their fellow Democrat, Senate nominee Ruben Gallego, in a safely blue seat based in downtown and western Phoenix.
● AZ-06 (R): Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani pulled off an underwhelming victory in his GOP primary rematch against conservative talk radio host Kathleen Winn, who challenged the vulnerable congressman from the right. Ciscomani leads Winn 59-41 with an estimated 77% in; two years ago, Winn took third place in the primary for what was an open seat.
Ciscomani will now face an even more difficult rematch against former state Sen. Kirsten Engel, the Democrat he beat 51-49 in 2022. Biden carried the 6th District, which includes southeastern Arizona and the eastern Tucson area, by a tight 49.3-49.2 margin four years ago.
● AZ-08 (R): Attorney Abe Hamadeh leads venture capitalist Blake Masters 30-25 with an estimated 79% reporting, but the AP has not yet issued a call in the ugly GOP primary to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko. State House Speaker Ben Toma, who has Lesko's endorsement, is in third with 21%; former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned in 2017 following a shocking sex scandal, lags in fourth with 17%.
Trump four years ago scored a 56-43 win in the 8th District, which is based in the western suburbs of Phoenix.
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff (D & R): Former Phoenix police officer Tyler Kamp and Jerry Sheridan, a former deputy chief in the Sheriff's Office, will face off after respectively winning the Democratic and Republican primaries for sheriff of Arizona's largest county. This will be a closely watched general election in a county that Biden carried 50-48 in 2020.
Kamp dispatched incumbent Russ Skinner, whom the Republican majority on the county Board of Supervisors appointed in February after Skinner's boss, Democratic Sheriff Paul Penzone, resigned to take a job in the health insurance industry. Kamp's lead stands at 55-45 with an estimated 77% in.
The supervisors were required to pick someone from Penzone's party to replace him, and Skinner qualified after he switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democratic one day after Penzone announced his departure. But while Kamp also only registered as a Democrat last year, he successfully reminded voters that his rival had served under the infamous Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
On the GOP side, Sheridan scored a clear win over former state Department of Public Safety Director Frank Milstead; he leads 51-28 with an estimated 81% in.
Sheridan was once the right-hand man to Arpaio, who lost reelection to Penzone in 2016. The two former allies, though, came into conflict four years later when Sheridan narrowly defeated Arpaio in the primary to reclaim his old job. Sheridan went on to lose to Penzone in a 56-44 landslide as Biden was becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Maricopa County since Harry Truman in 1948.
Arpaio endorsed Milstead this time, but it was far from enough. The former six-term sheriff also got another reminder of his rapidly diminishing relevance on Tuesday when he took a distant third place in the contest for mayor of Fountain Hills, a 24,000-person community that's home to one of the largest water fountains in the world. This represents the fifth electoral defeat in a row for the 92-year-old Arpaio, who spent decades as one of the most powerful Republicans in the state.
● Maricopa County, AZ Attorney (R): Incumbent Rachel Mitchell won her Republican primary rematch against former local prosecutor Gina Godbehere, who portrayed Maricopa County's top prosecutor as weak on crime. Mitchell leads Godbehere 58-42 with an estimated 81% in, which is similar to her 57-43 victory in the 2022 special election primary. Mitchell will now face attorney Tamika Wooten, who had no Democratic primary opposition.
● Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors (R): Hardliner Mark Stewart decisively unseated Supervisor Jack Sellers in the GOP primary for a key constituency that Democrats need to flip to take their first majority on the five-member Board of Supervisors since 1968. Stewart, who is a member of the Chandler City Council, leads 65-35 with an estimated 81% reporting in the GOP primary for the 1st District.
Like each of his colleagues, Sellers has spent years on the receiving end of harassment, including death threats, from election conspiracy theorists who are furious that supervisors certified the results of the 2020 and 2022 elections. Stewart, for his part, has refused to say whether Biden or Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs were rightfully elected or if he'd have certified their respective victories.
The Democratic candidate is Tempe City Council member Joel Navarro, who last year correctly predicted that Sellers, whom he said was doing a "wonderful job," wouldn't win renomination. According to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, Biden carried this seat 51-48, and Stewart's win will make it a key pickup opportunity for Democrats.
Democrats have one other viable target in their quest to end the GOP's 4-1 majority, though Republicans in the 3rd District behaved a bit more pragmatically than their counterparts in Sellers' seat. Former state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, whom the Arizona Republic's Abe Kwok describes as relatively moderate, scored a landslide victory against attorney Tabatha LaVoie. Brophy McGee leads 73-27 with an estimated 81% in for the primary to replace retiring GOP Supervisor Bill Gates, who was diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder after being bombarded with death threats.
Brophy McGee will face former Phoenix City Council member Daniel Valenzuela, who had no Democratic primary opposition, in what will be a hotly contested race. Biden carried the 3rd District around Phoenix 54-45, so a win here and in the aforementioned 1st District would all but assure Democratic control of the Board of Supervisors. (The one Democrat who currently serves on the body, Supervisor Steve Gallardo, has nothing to worry about in his safely blue 5th District.)
There was also some drama in the remaining two conservative constituencies. Over in the 2nd District, GOP Supervisor Tom Galvin holds a 57-43 advantage over his far-right primary foe, former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, with an estimated 81% in, but the AP has not yet called the race. Trump prevailed 53-46 here four years ago.
The far-right, however, is all but assured to gain a foothold on the Board of Supervisors this cycle following GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko's primary win in the safely red 4th District, which is based in the region known as the West Valley. Lesko holds a wide 72-28 lead over Grand Canyon University professor Bob Branch with an estimated 81% reporting in the primary to succeed retiring GOP incumbent Clint Hickman.
Lesko, who has Trump's endorsement, belongs to the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, and voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Branch, however, was somehow even more outspoken about promoting election lies.
● Maricopa County, AZ Recorder (R): State Rep. Justin Heap denied renomination to incumbent Stephen Richer, who has used his position as election administrator for Arizona's largest county to push back on lies about the 2020 and 2022 elections. Heap leads 42-36 with an estimated 81% reporting.
While Heap, who belongs to the state's branch of the Freedom Caucus, has avoided statements expressing direct support for election denialism, he's promoted legislation supported by conspiracy theorists. Richer, by contrast, said in June he'd be casting his ballot for President Joe Biden, an admission that came shortly after news broke that a prominent GOP activist told a gathering, "f Stephen Richer walked in this room, I would lynch him."
The Democrats are fielding Tim Stringham, an Army and Navy veteran who said last year that he was already skeptical that Richer would even make it through the primary.
House
● UT-02: On Monday, Green Beret veteran Colby Jenkins officially asked Utah election officials to conduct a recount for the June 25 Republican primary, where certified results show him trailing Rep. Celeste Maloy by 214 votes. The Deseret News' Brigham Tomco writes that the process could conclude as late as Aug. 5.
● WI-08: State Sen. André Jacque has publicized an endorsement from Rep. Glenn Grothman, the 6th District congressman who has made a name for himself by railing against Kawanzaa, weekends, and "the angry feminist movement," ahead of the Aug. 13 Republican primary for the neighboring 8th District. Grothman's intervention comes at a time when Jacque is getting badly outraised by his two intraparty rivals, former state Sen. Roger Roth and businessman Tony Wied, and is facing unwelcome questions about the money he did bring in.
Wisconsin Politics first reported two weeks ago that Jacque used his state campaign account to donate about $24,000 to several associates, including fellow legislators, and that these people went on to give his congressional campaign almost $31,000. Jacque, who is prohibited from transferring money from his state-level account into his new effort, responded with a statement declaring, "Any suggestion that these contributions were meant to be reciprocated is entirely false and tarnishes the reputation of dedicated conservative lawmakers."
Jacque, however, already looked like the underdog in the primary contest to replace former Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Republican who resigned in April, in this conservative northeast Wisconsin seat. Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, has Donald Trump's endorsement, and he's used his personal wealth to outspend his two rivals.
Roth, though, has benefited from $500,000 in outside spending from Speak Free or Die PAC. That group is largely funded by Americans 4 Security, an outfit that helped House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole win renomination this year in Oklahoma.
This trio of Republicans will face off twice on Aug. 13: Once in the primary for the remainder of Gallagher's term, and once for the nomination for a seat in the new Congress. (Both general elections will be on Nov. 5.) Because the lineup for both races is the same, though, it's unlikely―though not impossible―that different candidates will win each primary. OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly has the Democratic side to herself as she tries to flip a Green Bay area constituency that Trump carried 57-41 four years ago.
Ballot Measures
● FL Ballot, FL-Sen: The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab finds a 69-23 majority in favor of the state's proposed abortion-rights amendment, which is above the 60% that Amendment 4 needs for passage. Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana, leads by a smaller 64-31 spread.
The poll meanwhile gives GOP Sen. Rick Scott a small 47-43 advantage over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the favorite to claim the Democratic nomination on Aug. 20. This is one of the smallest leads for Scott that any publicly released survey has shown, though we haven't seen any other polls here in about a month and a half. Respondents also favor Donald Trump 49-42 against Kamala Harris, with 4% opting for an unnamed third option.
Legislatures
● NE State Senate: Monday marked the end of an era in Nebraska politics when former state Sen. Ernie Chambers, a liberal independent whose 46 nonconsecutive years in office made him the longest-serving legislator in state history, dropped out of the race to reclaim his old seat. A local elections official relays that Chambers, who is 87, acknowledged that this likely meant the conclusion of his history-making career.
Chambers, whom the Omaha World-Herald dubbed "most famous Black man in Nebraska" in 2020, was first elected in 1970 to represent North Omaha, and he was often the sole lawmaker of color in the 49-member unicameral legislature.
Chambers made a name for himself over the decades by taking up unpopular causes in this conservative state, as well as for angering his colleagues with his rhetoric: To take just one example, he said of the American flag in 2019, "Every hateful thing that was done to Black people was done under the aegis of that rag."
However, his intricate knowledge of the chamber's rules helped make him a force during his long service. Notably, he repeatedly thwarted Republicans attempts to stop dividing Nebraska's electoral votes by congressional district; this preservation of the status quo allowed both Barack Obama and Joe Biden to win an electoral vote from the Omaha-based 2nd District in 2008 and 2020, respectively, even as they decisively lost the rest of the state.
Chambers made abolishing the death penalty one of his top priorities, and his decades-long quest temporarily succeeded in 2015, when he convinced enough Republicans in this officially nonpartisan body to override then-GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts' veto. Voters approved a ballot measure to reinstate capital punishment the next year, but Chambers still argued, "Getting the death penalty abolished, even though it was temporary, meant a great deal to me."
Chambers had more long-term success with laws to require district-level elections for several offices in the Omaha area, something that has helped more people of color win local office. He even attracted international attention in 1980, when he passed a measure that made Nebraska the first state to place sanctions on South Africa's apartheid government.
Chambers left the chamber following the 2008 election because of term limits, but he returned four years later by decisively unseating his successor, Democratic state Sen. Brenda Council. When Chambers became the first legislator to face term limits for a second time in 2020, he characteristically remarked, "The fact that the whole state was willing to change their constitution to get rid of me … so they didn’t have to listen to what I said is the highest compliment that could be paid to any human being."
Chambers initially waged another comeback bid against Democratic state Sen. Terrell McKinney. The two each took 45% of the vote in the May nonpartisan primary (McKinney finished four votes ahead), but their general election showdown was averted when Chambers ended this final campaign on Monday.
Poll Pile
- PA-Sen: Susquehanna Polling & Research (R): Bob Casey (D-inc): 47, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (47-43 Harris with third-party candidates)
Ad Roundup
- MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D)
- PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)
- NH-Gov: Put New Hampshire First (DGA affiliate) - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)
- WA-04: Jerrod Sessler (R) - anti-Dan Newhouse (R-inc)
Correction: This piece has been updated to clarify that the general election spending for Arizona’s Senate race includes money from campaigns and allied organizations, not just campaigns. This piece has also corrected the spelling of Kirsten Engel’s first name.
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