The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Embedded Content
● Primary Night: Arizona's new embrace of swing-state status means it's now home to loads of competitive elections up and down the ballot, and Jeff Singer previews the big primaries to watch on Tuesday. Many of these contests will help determine which party holds power in important offices across the state, though some are just good old-fashioned primaries for safe districts―including one internecine battle that has outdone all others in setting new records for Republican repulsiveness.
But one person who isn't repelled by the vicious―and ever more expensive―primary to replace outgoing Rep. Debbie Lesko is Donald Trump, who stunned everyone on Saturday by issuing an unusual duel endorsement to venture capitalist Blake Masters and attorney Abe Hamadeh. Hamadeh, though, had Trump's singular endorsement until this weekend, so he probably wasn't comforted by the Truth Social post praising him as someone who "has been with me all the way!"
But while the contest between Hamadeh and Masters already attracted national attention as they've fought over leaked texts, Islamophobic attacks, and claims about residency at a "nudist vegan commune," they're not the only candidates on the ballot. The field also includes an indicted fake elector, a former congressman who resigned following one of the grossest scandals ever, and a powerful GOP legislator who is hoping to benefit from all this chaos.
The contest to succeed Lesko is far from the only thing on tap for Tuesday. Democrats will be choosing their candidate to take on one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress, while election conspiracy theorists are hoping that success on Tuesday will set them up to take control of Arizona's largest county. Singer has far more on all of these contests and more, including a GOP primary where a party leader said she would "lynch" the incumbent, in our preview.
Polls close at 10 PM ET/7 PM local time in most of the state, though because the Navajo Nation observes daylight saving time, voting will conclude one hour earlier there. We'll have an open thread to discuss the results at Daily Kos Elections.
● AZ-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights finds election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake leading Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb 50-38 ahead of Tuesday's Republican Senate primary. Almost everyone has treated the nomination contest between Lake, who has the support of Donald Trump and the NRSC, and the underfunded Lamb as an afterthought, but we'll learn soon if a significant portion of the GOP electorate wishes they could move on from Lake.
● DE-Gov: Citizens for a New Delaware Way is spending $500,000 for TV ads and mailers attacking Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long over a campaign finance scandal ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary.
The TV commercial cites news reports about how her campaign paid her husband more than $200,000, refused to share an internal audit with state officials, and accepted $25,000 in donations above the legal limit. (Hall-Long subsequently said she would refund the excessive donations.)
Last week, Delaware officials released a report finding that Hall-Long had violated state laws by failing to disclose nearly $300,000 that her campaign paid to her husband, campaign treasurer Dana Long, over the past several years to repay what they claimed were personal loans to the campaign. The state's investigator strongly disputed her audit's methodology and findings, concluding that the payments exceeded the documented amount of the loans by $33,000.
Citizens for a New Delaware Way previously said it would spend "upwards of $1 million" in this contest, and Politico relays that TransPerfect CEO Phil Shawe, whose company provides language translation services, is funding the PAC.
● MO-Gov, MO-AG: The Republican pollster Remington Research Group's newest survey for the local tipsheet the Missouri Scout shows Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft deadlocked 29-29 against Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe ahead of next week's Republican primary for governor, with state Sen. Bill Eigel in third with 18%. RRG found Ashcroft leading Kehoe 31-29 about a month ago, with Eigel taking just 9%.
Show Me State Republicans who still haven't made up their minds won't be getting Donald Trump's help to decide, though, because the party's supreme master endorsed all three candidates on Saturday evening. Trump's declaration of neutrality, though, didn't stop each member of this trio from acting like they were the sole contender to receive his blessing. Eigel, for instance, already has a commercial touting him as the candidate "Endorsed By President Trump."
RRG's survey also finds appointed incumbent Andrew Bailey fending off Trump attorney Will Scharf 36-31, which is similar to his 27-23 advantage last month. Scharf is one of RRG's clients, though this poll was also done for the nonpartisan Scout.
● NC-Gov: North Carolina officials have ordered Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's family nonprofit, Balanced Nutrition, to repay $132,000 in federal funding after state investigators recently found it "seriously deficient" over an extensive lack of documentation and improper claims for payment. Robinson's wife, Yoldana Hill, led the group before shutting down after the state began its probe this spring, and it previously employed both Robinson and the couple's adult children.
The nonprofit assisted childcare facilities to obtain funding for food, but state officials found that childcare facilities that hadn't requested or received such funding had payment claims filed on their behalf. The state further indicated that the required repayment amount could rise because the probe only covered certain childcare centers over a particular timeframe.
Balanced Nutrition was also faulted for impermissibly high administrative costs. Notably, Hill's salary nearly doubled from $71,000 in 2019 to $140,000 in 2023, and the nonprofit hired the couple's daughter without required state approval by failing to note that Hill was her mother.
Through his campaign spokesperson, Robinson claimed an "independent auditor" had found no "material" misdeeds last year and signaled that the nonprofit would appeal.
● WA-Gov: The Northwest Progressive Institute's newest survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert each remain on track to advance out of next week's top-two primary. Ferguson leads with 39% as Reichert beats out his fellow Republican, former Richland school board member Semi Bird, 28-10 for second. Another 5% opt for Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who has struggled to gain traction despite some heavy outside spending on his behalf.
Respondents also favor Ferguson over Reichert 49-43 in a head-to-head, though there's one caveat. This survey sampled people who plan to take part in the primary, and they may have different preferences than the larger fall electorate.
● KS-02, MI-08, WA-03: Donald Trump has endorsed three House candidates ahead of their respective Aug. 6 Republican primaries: former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt in Kansas' 2nd District, former Trump administration official Paul Junge in Michigan's 8th, and Army veteran Joe Kent in Washington's 3rd.
These candidates already shared the unwelcome distinction of losing in 2022, though that's probably not the theme Trump was going for. Schmidt fell just short in his bid to unseat Gov. Laura Kelly, while Junge lost to Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee by a surprisingly wide 53-43 margin. Kent, for his part, beat GOP incumbent Jaime Herrera-Beutler in the last top-two primary only to narrowly lose this light red constituency to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez.
Junge, who is running again following Kildee's decision to retire from this swing seat, is arguably the candidate who has the most to gain from Trump's intervention. Junge faces an expensive and nasty intra-party battle next week against retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves, who argued to the Detroit News that her foe is "a two-time loser." Junge, though, has repeatedly publicized surveys showing him far ahead, while Draves has yet to release contradictory data.
Schmidt, for his part, already appeared set to advance in a field featuring two lesser-known opponents. Businessman Shawn Tiffany, however, hasn't given up trying to beat Schmidt for the right to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner, in this conservative eastern Kansas seat. A Tiffany's ad unsubtly features flies buzzing around a pile of manure as a narrator declares, "Derek's liberal voting record: A smelly pile of Schmidt." Former Turner staffer Jeff Kahrs is also running.
Kent, likewise, has long been favored to outpace his intra-party rival, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, in next week's top-two primary. But don't expect Kent, who spent his first bid spewing conspiracy theories, to be any different in his likely rematch against Gluesenkamp Perez. The candidate declared last week, "I don't think it's unreasonable to say it seems like there's some degree of a plot to kill President Trump that was noticed by people in the Secret Service, and they either let it happen or some of them were in on it."
Gluesenkamp Perez responded, "To him anything in the news is one big conspiracy theory, with the deep state pulling the strings."
● ME-02: State election officials confirmed last week that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Austin Theriault will be the only candidates on the fall ballot for Maine's 2nd District, so the Pine Tree State's instant-runoff voting system will not be used here this cycle.
● MO-01: Democratic Majority for Israel has publicized a Mellman Group internal poll that finds St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell leading Rep. Cori Bush by 48-42 in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary. (Pollster Mark Mellman leads both organizations.) That result is a modest improvement for Bell since Mellman's June poll for DMFI showed Bell winning by just 43-42. No other polls from reputable firms have been released here since winter.
DMFI has spent $475,000 to support Bell so far, while the pro-Israel group AIPAC and its United Democracy Project affiliate have spent $7 million to help him defeat Bush. Overall, outside groups favoring Bell have spent nearly $10 million, while those supporting Bush have spent a far smaller $2.2 million.
Bush, though, is hoping to break through with a new TV ad where the father and sister of Michael Brown, the teenager whose 2014 killing by Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson helped turn the Black Lives Matter movement against police brutality into a national force, argue that Bell "lied" to them.
Mike Brown Sr. argues that the candidate "used my family for power" in 2018 when Bell, who was waging a successful primary campaign against longtime Prosecuting Attorney Bob McCulloch, promised to bring Wilson to justice. Bell announced in 2020 he wouldn't charge Wilson, arguing that his office couldn't prove "beyond a reasonable doubt" that the officer had committed murder or manslaughter under state law.
The elder Brown though, tells the audience that Bell "failed to reform the office" and "doesn't care about us." The only mention of Bush comes at the end when Michael Brown's sister declares that the congresswoman does care about the family.
● House: The House Majority PAC announced a third round of TV ad reservations on Monday, several of which expand the playing field further into offensive territory for Democrats. You can stay on top of all of these bookings as well as those from peer organizations with our continually updated tracker.
HMP's most notable new forays include a $350,000 reservation in the Davenport-Rock Island-Moline media market, better known as the Quad Cities. The inclusion of turf, centered in eastern Iowa, indicates that the PAC is hoping to target the state's 1st Congressional District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan is hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks after falling short 53-47 last cycle.
HMP is also wading into two GOP-held districts in Wisconsin: the 3rd in the southwestern part of the state, where Democrats have a competitive Aug. 13 primary to take on freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden; and the 1st in Wisconsin's southeastern corner, where they've landed a sought-after challenger in former state cabinet official Peter Barca to take on Rep. Bryan Steil. All three districts narrowly went for Donald Trump in 2020.
● House: The NRCC on Monday announced the first 26 members of its Young Guns program, which is meant to spotlight candidates whom the committee thinks has the strongest chance of picking up Democratic-held districts or defending competitive open seats:
All of these candidates, with one exception, either already won their respective primaries or face no serious intra-party opposition. The one outlier is Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who is competing against businessman Nick Begich in the Aug. 20 top-four primary for the seat held by Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Dahlstrom already had endorsements from Donald Trump and the NRCC's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund.
While both Republicans should have no trouble earning a spot in the November general election, Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he takes fewer votes than Dahlstrom next month. The lieutenant governor, however, says she's staying in no matter what.
Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight highlights how this is the first cycle where the NRCC has directly designated candidates as Young Guns rather than first making them climb through lower tiers. The committee, though, is keeping the Young Guns branding even though all three of the rising star congressmen who popularized the term in 2010―Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy―are out of office.
Embedded Content
Leading Off
● Primary Night: Arizona's new embrace of swing-state status means it's now home to loads of competitive elections up and down the ballot, and Jeff Singer previews the big primaries to watch on Tuesday. Many of these contests will help determine which party holds power in important offices across the state, though some are just good old-fashioned primaries for safe districts―including one internecine battle that has outdone all others in setting new records for Republican repulsiveness.
But one person who isn't repelled by the vicious―and ever more expensive―primary to replace outgoing Rep. Debbie Lesko is Donald Trump, who stunned everyone on Saturday by issuing an unusual duel endorsement to venture capitalist Blake Masters and attorney Abe Hamadeh. Hamadeh, though, had Trump's singular endorsement until this weekend, so he probably wasn't comforted by the Truth Social post praising him as someone who "has been with me all the way!"
But while the contest between Hamadeh and Masters already attracted national attention as they've fought over leaked texts, Islamophobic attacks, and claims about residency at a "nudist vegan commune," they're not the only candidates on the ballot. The field also includes an indicted fake elector, a former congressman who resigned following one of the grossest scandals ever, and a powerful GOP legislator who is hoping to benefit from all this chaos.
The contest to succeed Lesko is far from the only thing on tap for Tuesday. Democrats will be choosing their candidate to take on one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress, while election conspiracy theorists are hoping that success on Tuesday will set them up to take control of Arizona's largest county. Singer has far more on all of these contests and more, including a GOP primary where a party leader said she would "lynch" the incumbent, in our preview.
Polls close at 10 PM ET/7 PM local time in most of the state, though because the Navajo Nation observes daylight saving time, voting will conclude one hour earlier there. We'll have an open thread to discuss the results at Daily Kos Elections.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights finds election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake leading Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb 50-38 ahead of Tuesday's Republican Senate primary. Almost everyone has treated the nomination contest between Lake, who has the support of Donald Trump and the NRSC, and the underfunded Lamb as an afterthought, but we'll learn soon if a significant portion of the GOP electorate wishes they could move on from Lake.
Governors
● DE-Gov: Citizens for a New Delaware Way is spending $500,000 for TV ads and mailers attacking Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long over a campaign finance scandal ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary.
The TV commercial cites news reports about how her campaign paid her husband more than $200,000, refused to share an internal audit with state officials, and accepted $25,000 in donations above the legal limit. (Hall-Long subsequently said she would refund the excessive donations.)
Last week, Delaware officials released a report finding that Hall-Long had violated state laws by failing to disclose nearly $300,000 that her campaign paid to her husband, campaign treasurer Dana Long, over the past several years to repay what they claimed were personal loans to the campaign. The state's investigator strongly disputed her audit's methodology and findings, concluding that the payments exceeded the documented amount of the loans by $33,000.
Citizens for a New Delaware Way previously said it would spend "upwards of $1 million" in this contest, and Politico relays that TransPerfect CEO Phil Shawe, whose company provides language translation services, is funding the PAC.
● MO-Gov, MO-AG: The Republican pollster Remington Research Group's newest survey for the local tipsheet the Missouri Scout shows Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft deadlocked 29-29 against Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe ahead of next week's Republican primary for governor, with state Sen. Bill Eigel in third with 18%. RRG found Ashcroft leading Kehoe 31-29 about a month ago, with Eigel taking just 9%.
Show Me State Republicans who still haven't made up their minds won't be getting Donald Trump's help to decide, though, because the party's supreme master endorsed all three candidates on Saturday evening. Trump's declaration of neutrality, though, didn't stop each member of this trio from acting like they were the sole contender to receive his blessing. Eigel, for instance, already has a commercial touting him as the candidate "Endorsed By President Trump."
RRG's survey also finds appointed incumbent Andrew Bailey fending off Trump attorney Will Scharf 36-31, which is similar to his 27-23 advantage last month. Scharf is one of RRG's clients, though this poll was also done for the nonpartisan Scout.
● NC-Gov: North Carolina officials have ordered Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's family nonprofit, Balanced Nutrition, to repay $132,000 in federal funding after state investigators recently found it "seriously deficient" over an extensive lack of documentation and improper claims for payment. Robinson's wife, Yoldana Hill, led the group before shutting down after the state began its probe this spring, and it previously employed both Robinson and the couple's adult children.
The nonprofit assisted childcare facilities to obtain funding for food, but state officials found that childcare facilities that hadn't requested or received such funding had payment claims filed on their behalf. The state further indicated that the required repayment amount could rise because the probe only covered certain childcare centers over a particular timeframe.
Balanced Nutrition was also faulted for impermissibly high administrative costs. Notably, Hill's salary nearly doubled from $71,000 in 2019 to $140,000 in 2023, and the nonprofit hired the couple's daughter without required state approval by failing to note that Hill was her mother.
Through his campaign spokesperson, Robinson claimed an "independent auditor" had found no "material" misdeeds last year and signaled that the nonprofit would appeal.
● WA-Gov: The Northwest Progressive Institute's newest survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert each remain on track to advance out of next week's top-two primary. Ferguson leads with 39% as Reichert beats out his fellow Republican, former Richland school board member Semi Bird, 28-10 for second. Another 5% opt for Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who has struggled to gain traction despite some heavy outside spending on his behalf.
Respondents also favor Ferguson over Reichert 49-43 in a head-to-head, though there's one caveat. This survey sampled people who plan to take part in the primary, and they may have different preferences than the larger fall electorate.
House
● KS-02, MI-08, WA-03: Donald Trump has endorsed three House candidates ahead of their respective Aug. 6 Republican primaries: former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt in Kansas' 2nd District, former Trump administration official Paul Junge in Michigan's 8th, and Army veteran Joe Kent in Washington's 3rd.
These candidates already shared the unwelcome distinction of losing in 2022, though that's probably not the theme Trump was going for. Schmidt fell just short in his bid to unseat Gov. Laura Kelly, while Junge lost to Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee by a surprisingly wide 53-43 margin. Kent, for his part, beat GOP incumbent Jaime Herrera-Beutler in the last top-two primary only to narrowly lose this light red constituency to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez.
Junge, who is running again following Kildee's decision to retire from this swing seat, is arguably the candidate who has the most to gain from Trump's intervention. Junge faces an expensive and nasty intra-party battle next week against retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves, who argued to the Detroit News that her foe is "a two-time loser." Junge, though, has repeatedly publicized surveys showing him far ahead, while Draves has yet to release contradictory data.
Schmidt, for his part, already appeared set to advance in a field featuring two lesser-known opponents. Businessman Shawn Tiffany, however, hasn't given up trying to beat Schmidt for the right to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner, in this conservative eastern Kansas seat. A Tiffany's ad unsubtly features flies buzzing around a pile of manure as a narrator declares, "Derek's liberal voting record: A smelly pile of Schmidt." Former Turner staffer Jeff Kahrs is also running.
Kent, likewise, has long been favored to outpace his intra-party rival, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, in next week's top-two primary. But don't expect Kent, who spent his first bid spewing conspiracy theories, to be any different in his likely rematch against Gluesenkamp Perez. The candidate declared last week, "I don't think it's unreasonable to say it seems like there's some degree of a plot to kill President Trump that was noticed by people in the Secret Service, and they either let it happen or some of them were in on it."
Gluesenkamp Perez responded, "To him anything in the news is one big conspiracy theory, with the deep state pulling the strings."
● ME-02: State election officials confirmed last week that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Austin Theriault will be the only candidates on the fall ballot for Maine's 2nd District, so the Pine Tree State's instant-runoff voting system will not be used here this cycle.
● MO-01: Democratic Majority for Israel has publicized a Mellman Group internal poll that finds St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell leading Rep. Cori Bush by 48-42 in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary. (Pollster Mark Mellman leads both organizations.) That result is a modest improvement for Bell since Mellman's June poll for DMFI showed Bell winning by just 43-42. No other polls from reputable firms have been released here since winter.
DMFI has spent $475,000 to support Bell so far, while the pro-Israel group AIPAC and its United Democracy Project affiliate have spent $7 million to help him defeat Bush. Overall, outside groups favoring Bell have spent nearly $10 million, while those supporting Bush have spent a far smaller $2.2 million.
Bush, though, is hoping to break through with a new TV ad where the father and sister of Michael Brown, the teenager whose 2014 killing by Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson helped turn the Black Lives Matter movement against police brutality into a national force, argue that Bell "lied" to them.
Mike Brown Sr. argues that the candidate "used my family for power" in 2018 when Bell, who was waging a successful primary campaign against longtime Prosecuting Attorney Bob McCulloch, promised to bring Wilson to justice. Bell announced in 2020 he wouldn't charge Wilson, arguing that his office couldn't prove "beyond a reasonable doubt" that the officer had committed murder or manslaughter under state law.
The elder Brown though, tells the audience that Bell "failed to reform the office" and "doesn't care about us." The only mention of Bush comes at the end when Michael Brown's sister declares that the congresswoman does care about the family.
● House: The House Majority PAC announced a third round of TV ad reservations on Monday, several of which expand the playing field further into offensive territory for Democrats. You can stay on top of all of these bookings as well as those from peer organizations with our continually updated tracker.
HMP's most notable new forays include a $350,000 reservation in the Davenport-Rock Island-Moline media market, better known as the Quad Cities. The inclusion of turf, centered in eastern Iowa, indicates that the PAC is hoping to target the state's 1st Congressional District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan is hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks after falling short 53-47 last cycle.
HMP is also wading into two GOP-held districts in Wisconsin: the 3rd in the southwestern part of the state, where Democrats have a competitive Aug. 13 primary to take on freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden; and the 1st in Wisconsin's southeastern corner, where they've landed a sought-after challenger in former state cabinet official Peter Barca to take on Rep. Bryan Steil. All three districts narrowly went for Donald Trump in 2020.
● House: The NRCC on Monday announced the first 26 members of its Young Guns program, which is meant to spotlight candidates whom the committee thinks has the strongest chance of picking up Democratic-held districts or defending competitive open seats:
- AK-AL: Nancy Dahlstrom
- AL-02: Caroleene Dobson
- CA-09: Kevin Lincoln
- CA-47: Scott Baugh
- CA-49: Matt Gunderson
- CO-03: Jeff Hurd
- CO-08: Gabe Evans
- CT-05: George Logan
- IL-17: Joe McGraw
- IN-01: Randy Niemeyer
- KS-03: Prasanth Reddy
- ME-02: Austin Theriault
- MI-07: Tom Barrett
- MN-02: Joe Teirab
- NC-01: Laurie Buckhout
- NM-02: Yvette Herrell
- NV-04: John Lee
- NY-18: Alison Esposito
- OH-09: Derek Merrin
- OH-13: Kevin Coughlin
- OR-04: Monique DeSpain
- PA-07: Ryan Mackenzie
- PA-08: Rob Bresnahan
- PA-17: Rob Mercuri
- TX-34: Mayra Flores
- VA-07: Derrick Anderson
All of these candidates, with one exception, either already won their respective primaries or face no serious intra-party opposition. The one outlier is Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who is competing against businessman Nick Begich in the Aug. 20 top-four primary for the seat held by Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Dahlstrom already had endorsements from Donald Trump and the NRCC's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund.
While both Republicans should have no trouble earning a spot in the November general election, Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he takes fewer votes than Dahlstrom next month. The lieutenant governor, however, says she's staying in no matter what.
Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight highlights how this is the first cycle where the NRCC has directly designated candidates as Young Guns rather than first making them climb through lower tiers. The committee, though, is keeping the Young Guns branding even though all three of the rising star congressmen who popularized the term in 2010―Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy―are out of office.
Poll Pile
- MI-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Elissa Slotkin (D): 51, Mike Rogers (R): 46 (49-49 presidential tie in two-way, 45-43 Trump with third-party candidates)
- MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV: Slotkin (D): 46, Rogers (R): 41 (42-41 Harris with third-party candidates) (April: 40-37 Slotkin)
- MN-Sen: Beacon & Shaw for Fox: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 57, Royce White (R): 40 (52-46 Harris in two-way, 47-41 Harris with third-party candidates)
- PA-Sen: Beacon & Shaw for Fox: Bob Casey (D-inc): 55, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (49-49 presidential tie in two-way, 45-43 Harris with third-party candidates)
- PA-Sen: Bullfinch Group for the Commonwealth Foundation: Casey (D-inc): 53, McCormick (R): 42 (48-47 Harris in two-way, 44-44 tie with third-party candidates)
- WI-Sen: Beacon & Shaw for Fox: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 54, Eric Hovde (R): 43 (50-49 Trump in two-way, 46-46 tie with third-party candidates)
- AL-02: Strategy Management LLC (R) for Alabama Families PAC: Shomari Figures (D): 37, Caroleene Dobson (R): 34
- AZ-06: Change Research (D) for ESPA: Kirsten Engel (D): 44, Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): 43
- NY-04: Change Research (D) for ESPA: Laura Gillen (D): 46, Anthony D'Esposito (R-inc): 39
- San Francisco, CA Mayor: FM3 Research for GrowSF: London Breed (inc): 24, Mark Farrell: 21, Daniel Lurie: 16, Aaron Peskin: 14, Ahsha Safaí: 7. In final round of simulated instant runoff: Breed (inc): 51, Farrell: 49. (All candidates are Democrats.)
Ad Roundup
- AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D) (in Spanish); Kari Lake (R)
- MT-Sen: Last Best Place PAC - anti-Tim Sheehy (R)
- NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R)
- OH-Sen: Duty and Honor - pro-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)
- TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc) (here and here); Cruz - anti-Allred
- WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R)
- NH-Gov: Cinde Warmington (D) (here, here, here, and here)
- AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)
- FL-16: Vern Buchanan (R-inc) (here and here)
- KS-02: Derek Schmidt (R)
- MO-01: Justice Democrats - pro-Cori Bush (D-inc) and anti-Wesley Bell (D); United Democracy Project - anti-Bush
- NY-01: Nick LaLota (R-inc)
- NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc) - anti-Alison Esposito (R)
- NY-19: Josh Riley (D)
- VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R-inc)
- Johnson County, KS Sheriff: Doug Bedford (R)