National Republicans launched an ad campaign this week in California's Central Valley to prevent Chris Mathys, a wealthy perennial candidate waging a far-right intraparty campaign against GOP Rep. David Valadao, from advancing out of the March 5 top-two primary. The offensive comes as Democratic groups are pouring more money into an expensive effort to make sure that Valadao and Mathys don't secure both spots in the general election.
All congressional candidates in the Golden State run on one ballot, and the two contenders with the most votes move on to the general—regardless of party. Because of those rules, the competitive 22nd Congressional District would fall off the Democratic target list immediately if this pair of Republicans passed the two Democratic contenders, 2022 nominee Rudy Salas and state Sen. Melissa Hurtado. Both the DCCC and House Majority PAC are convinced that Salas, who lost to Valadao 52-48 last cycle, is the stronger of their two options, and they're airing commercials to help him move forward.
But while we originally suspected that Republicans could take action to make the Democrats' nightmare scenario a reality, Punchbowl News' Max Cohen reports that the GOP has terrors of its own to avert. Cohen writes that there's "real fear among members of both parties that they may not get their favored candidate" past the first round, which is why major outside groups on each side are taking action now.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the biggest super PAC dedicated to electing House Republicans, is using its first spot to portray Mathys as "soft on crime" and "dangerously liberal." The National Journal's James Downs notes that CLF ran an almost identical commercial two years ago in an effort to prevent Mathys from overtaking Valadao. That earlier spot did indeed help the congressman edge out Mathys 26-23 in the top-two primary, while Salas, a state assemblyman who had the Democratic side to himself, took 45%; Valadao went on to fend off Salas in the general five months later.
But while the two anti-Mathys ads even share the same narrator, there's one small but important difference between them. In 2022, she pronounced Mathys name as "Mat-EESE," but she now says, "MATH-is." Mathys himself switched how he said his name in his ads this year, telling Politico in late January that while he was raised with both pronunciations, voters had trouble saying "Matisse." The challenger introduced himself as Chris "Mathis" last month as he savaged Valadao for voting to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 riot.
However, one prominent local Valadao backer argued that the challenger has nefarious motives for this linguistic shift. GOP Assemblymember Devon Mathis called Mathys a "shitbag" who wanted to take advantage of Mathis' popularity. "The man is worthless," the legislator told Politico. "He’s a liar. He’s a cheater. And he’s a carpetbagger." Mathys, who unsuccessfully ran for office in New Mexico in 2018 and 2020, denied that he was trying to link himself to Mathis.
AdImpact reports that CLF has booked at least $522,000 on its anti-Mathys commercials, though that's considerably less than the $1.1 million it says that the Democratic group House Majority PAC has spent or reserved; AdImpact also said last week that the DCCC had booked $690,000, though we don't have more recent numbers. HMP's newest commercial attacks Valadao as an anti-abortion "MAGA Republican" while praising Salas as a supporter of reproductive rights, and it does not mention either Mathys or Hurtado.
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All congressional candidates in the Golden State run on one ballot, and the two contenders with the most votes move on to the general—regardless of party. Because of those rules, the competitive 22nd Congressional District would fall off the Democratic target list immediately if this pair of Republicans passed the two Democratic contenders, 2022 nominee Rudy Salas and state Sen. Melissa Hurtado. Both the DCCC and House Majority PAC are convinced that Salas, who lost to Valadao 52-48 last cycle, is the stronger of their two options, and they're airing commercials to help him move forward.
But while we originally suspected that Republicans could take action to make the Democrats' nightmare scenario a reality, Punchbowl News' Max Cohen reports that the GOP has terrors of its own to avert. Cohen writes that there's "real fear among members of both parties that they may not get their favored candidate" past the first round, which is why major outside groups on each side are taking action now.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the biggest super PAC dedicated to electing House Republicans, is using its first spot to portray Mathys as "soft on crime" and "dangerously liberal." The National Journal's James Downs notes that CLF ran an almost identical commercial two years ago in an effort to prevent Mathys from overtaking Valadao. That earlier spot did indeed help the congressman edge out Mathys 26-23 in the top-two primary, while Salas, a state assemblyman who had the Democratic side to himself, took 45%; Valadao went on to fend off Salas in the general five months later.
But while the two anti-Mathys ads even share the same narrator, there's one small but important difference between them. In 2022, she pronounced Mathys name as "Mat-EESE," but she now says, "MATH-is." Mathys himself switched how he said his name in his ads this year, telling Politico in late January that while he was raised with both pronunciations, voters had trouble saying "Matisse." The challenger introduced himself as Chris "Mathis" last month as he savaged Valadao for voting to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 riot.
However, one prominent local Valadao backer argued that the challenger has nefarious motives for this linguistic shift. GOP Assemblymember Devon Mathis called Mathys a "shitbag" who wanted to take advantage of Mathis' popularity. "The man is worthless," the legislator told Politico. "He’s a liar. He’s a cheater. And he’s a carpetbagger." Mathys, who unsuccessfully ran for office in New Mexico in 2018 and 2020, denied that he was trying to link himself to Mathis.
AdImpact reports that CLF has booked at least $522,000 on its anti-Mathys commercials, though that's considerably less than the $1.1 million it says that the Democratic group House Majority PAC has spent or reserved; AdImpact also said last week that the DCCC had booked $690,000, though we don't have more recent numbers. HMP's newest commercial attacks Valadao as an anti-abortion "MAGA Republican" while praising Salas as a supporter of reproductive rights, and it does not mention either Mathys or Hurtado.
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