A new deep-dive survey on abortion reveals how resonant the issue will continue to be in the coming presidential election cycle, how badly political operatives and analysts underestimated Americans' belief in reproductive freedom, and what an unbelievable disaster a right-wing Texas judge’s ruling has proved for Republicans nationwide.
The polling, conducted by Civiqs for Daily Kos, found that 85% of registered voters are closely following abortion news (44% very, 41% fairly closely)—the very issue Republicans repeatedly promised would fade into the rearview mirror by Election Day 2022. Now, just 13% of respondents say they aren't closely following abortion news and only 2% (!) say they're not following it all.
The survey also revealed that pundits fundamentally underestimated voters’ ability to distinguish between their personal views and the policies they support. Roughly equal numbers of people who were personally against abortion said it should be legal vs. illegal (27% legal, 26% illegal). That finding completely upends the assumption that everyone who personally considers themselves "pro-life" also supports banning the procedure.
Combined with the 42% of voters supporting the baseline right to an abortion, 69% total believe abortion should be legal—a net 43-point advantage for team legal.
That means Republican efforts to either entirely ban abortion or effectively ban it at six weeks (before almost anyone knows they are pregnant) have the support of roughly one-quarter of the electorate.
Perhaps the only thing worse for Republicans would be a right-wing judge banning abortion nationwide via judicial fiat. Does that ring a bell?
You guessed it: The ruling by a federal judge in Texas that could potentially ban the early medication abortion pill mifepristone nationwide is a political disaster for Republicans—and not just because 73% of voters believe the abortion pill should be legal.
The biggest problem the case poses for Republicans is the fact that it has awakened voters in states with abortion access to the threat of having a nationwide ban imposed on them. That includes voters in blue states such as New York, who previously felt they would be spared from GOP zealotry, as well as battleground states like Michigan, where voters passed a ballot measure last fall protecting abortion rights.
Asked if they were concerned that a federal law or court decision would change abortion policy in their state, a 44% plurality of respondents said yes, they were concerned abortion access could be restricted. Just 22% said they were concerned abortion access would be expanded.
In other words, no one can press snooze on this issue—even if they're in a state that has taken steps to protect access to abortion. In all likelihood, a swath of voters in blue states who felt insulated from abortion restrictions during the midterms will be more engaged on the issue during the presidential election next year, not less.
That's very good news for Democrats, who outperformed expectations last November. And it's extremely bad news for Republicans, who now find themselves in a position where the very issue that upended their expectations last cycle will likely prove even more impactful in the next cycle.
RELATED STORY: Democrats seize on GOP anti-abortion crusade to reclaim key New York congressional seats
The polling, conducted by Civiqs for Daily Kos, found that 85% of registered voters are closely following abortion news (44% very, 41% fairly closely)—the very issue Republicans repeatedly promised would fade into the rearview mirror by Election Day 2022. Now, just 13% of respondents say they aren't closely following abortion news and only 2% (!) say they're not following it all.
Very closely: 44%
Fairly closely: 41%
Not too closely: 13%
Not following at all: 2%
The survey also revealed that pundits fundamentally underestimated voters’ ability to distinguish between their personal views and the policies they support. Roughly equal numbers of people who were personally against abortion said it should be legal vs. illegal (27% legal, 26% illegal). That finding completely upends the assumption that everyone who personally considers themselves "pro-life" also supports banning the procedure.
Combined with the 42% of voters supporting the baseline right to an abortion, 69% total believe abortion should be legal—a net 43-point advantage for team legal.
I support the right to abortion: 42%
I am personally against abortion, but it should be legal: 27%
I personally believe having an abortion is wrong and should be illegal: 26%
Unsure: 5%
That means Republican efforts to either entirely ban abortion or effectively ban it at six weeks (before almost anyone knows they are pregnant) have the support of roughly one-quarter of the electorate.
Perhaps the only thing worse for Republicans would be a right-wing judge banning abortion nationwide via judicial fiat. Does that ring a bell?
You guessed it: The ruling by a federal judge in Texas that could potentially ban the early medication abortion pill mifepristone nationwide is a political disaster for Republicans—and not just because 73% of voters believe the abortion pill should be legal.
Legal: 54%
Legal, but only under certain circumstances: 19%
Illegal: 19%
Unsure or don't know enough to say: 8%
The biggest problem the case poses for Republicans is the fact that it has awakened voters in states with abortion access to the threat of having a nationwide ban imposed on them. That includes voters in blue states such as New York, who previously felt they would be spared from GOP zealotry, as well as battleground states like Michigan, where voters passed a ballot measure last fall protecting abortion rights.
Asked if they were concerned that a federal law or court decision would change abortion policy in their state, a 44% plurality of respondents said yes, they were concerned abortion access could be restricted. Just 22% said they were concerned abortion access would be expanded.
In other words, no one can press snooze on this issue—even if they're in a state that has taken steps to protect access to abortion. In all likelihood, a swath of voters in blue states who felt insulated from abortion restrictions during the midterms will be more engaged on the issue during the presidential election next year, not less.
Yes, I'm concerned abortion access will be restricted: 44%
Yes, I'm concerned abortion access will be expanded: 22%
No, I am not concerned: 27%
Unsure: 7%
That's very good news for Democrats, who outperformed expectations last November. And it's extremely bad news for Republicans, who now find themselves in a position where the very issue that upended their expectations last cycle will likely prove even more impactful in the next cycle.
RELATED STORY: Democrats seize on GOP anti-abortion crusade to reclaim key New York congressional seats