With just over three weeks left until Election Day, an encouraging poll of Texas Latinos shows crucial preference for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. Polling conducted by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (THPF) and a number of stations in the state show the Democratic nominee with a double-digit lead over the Republican incumbent.
“Most notably, the survey found that 51% of likely Texas Hispanic voters intend to vote for Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the race for Governor. Meanwhile, 39% said they will vote for Republican Governor Greg Abbott,” WFAA reports. Support for O’Rourke widens when looking at Latina and immigrant voters.
RELATED STORY: O'Rourke slams Abbott's anti-immigrant stunts as 'incredibly dangerous' during gubernatorial debate
“O’Rourke’s lead swells even more among Hispanic women, where his lead over Abbott expands into a 54% to 33% lead,” WFAA said. However, Abbott narrows O’Rourke’s lead to just three points when looking at Latino men. O’Rourke has a nearly 30-point lead when looking at immigrant voters, leading Abbott 60-31%.
On the issue of immigration itself, polling finds that Latino evangelicals are “significantly more likely” than Latino Catholics to support Abbott’s anti-immigrant policies. Slightly more than half of Latino voters overall support Abbott’s deployment of the Texas National Guard to the border. 48% support the state building a border wall, while 45% oppose. 44% support his busing policy, while 38% oppose. The polling said Latino men “are across the board more likely to support” certain immigration policies compared to Latinas.
Overall, “46% of Hispanic likely voters approve and 54% disapprove of Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s handling of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border,” the polling said.
The polling also explored other essential issues at play in this election. While just 23% of Latino evangelicals said they would “modify current Texas abortion law to make it easier to obtain an abortion,” 59% of Latino Catholics said they would. Latino Catholics also heavily favored O’Rourke over Abbott. Latino evangelicals overwhelmingly favored Abbott.
“Just as is the case within the Anglo population, Hispanics who are Evangelical Protestant overwhelmingly favor Abbott over O’Rourke,” said Mark Jones, TXHPF Chief Analytics and Information Officer. Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF, said “[t]here is not a monolithic Hispanic voting bloc in Texas. Just like we see with other groups of voters, Hispanics’ religious preferences can go a long way in predicting how they will vote in elections.”
While left-leaning Latino organizations have been working to engage voters in the state, reporter Texas Monthly reporter Jack Herrera previously noted “the dominant ideologies in South Texas have been the same as in other rural areas and small towns across the state—that is, conservative.”
“Many Hispanic South Texans shared something else with non-Hispanic white rural Texans: their racial identity,” he wrote in October 2021. “Hispanic residents of our state are much more likely to identify as white than Hispanic residents of cities elsewhere in the country. With roots many generations deep in lands that were annexed from Mexican control to that of the U.S., many also actively reject being cast as immigrants.”
“Both campaigns are trying to win over Texas Hispanic voters,” KHOU reported last month. ”For the first time, Census estimates the Latino population has outgrown the white non-Latino population in Texas. More than 1 million new voters have registered in Texas. A growing number of them are young and Hispanic, but there's no guarantee they'll vote democratic.”
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“Most notably, the survey found that 51% of likely Texas Hispanic voters intend to vote for Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the race for Governor. Meanwhile, 39% said they will vote for Republican Governor Greg Abbott,” WFAA reports. Support for O’Rourke widens when looking at Latina and immigrant voters.
RELATED STORY: O'Rourke slams Abbott's anti-immigrant stunts as 'incredibly dangerous' during gubernatorial debate
“O’Rourke’s lead swells even more among Hispanic women, where his lead over Abbott expands into a 54% to 33% lead,” WFAA said. However, Abbott narrows O’Rourke’s lead to just three points when looking at Latino men. O’Rourke has a nearly 30-point lead when looking at immigrant voters, leading Abbott 60-31%.
On the issue of immigration itself, polling finds that Latino evangelicals are “significantly more likely” than Latino Catholics to support Abbott’s anti-immigrant policies. Slightly more than half of Latino voters overall support Abbott’s deployment of the Texas National Guard to the border. 48% support the state building a border wall, while 45% oppose. 44% support his busing policy, while 38% oppose. The polling said Latino men “are across the board more likely to support” certain immigration policies compared to Latinas.
Overall, “46% of Hispanic likely voters approve and 54% disapprove of Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s handling of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border,” the polling said.
The polling also explored other essential issues at play in this election. While just 23% of Latino evangelicals said they would “modify current Texas abortion law to make it easier to obtain an abortion,” 59% of Latino Catholics said they would. Latino Catholics also heavily favored O’Rourke over Abbott. Latino evangelicals overwhelmingly favored Abbott.
“Just as is the case within the Anglo population, Hispanics who are Evangelical Protestant overwhelmingly favor Abbott over O’Rourke,” said Mark Jones, TXHPF Chief Analytics and Information Officer. Jason Villalba, CEO of the TXHPF, said “[t]here is not a monolithic Hispanic voting bloc in Texas. Just like we see with other groups of voters, Hispanics’ religious preferences can go a long way in predicting how they will vote in elections.”
While left-leaning Latino organizations have been working to engage voters in the state, reporter Texas Monthly reporter Jack Herrera previously noted “the dominant ideologies in South Texas have been the same as in other rural areas and small towns across the state—that is, conservative.”
“Many Hispanic South Texans shared something else with non-Hispanic white rural Texans: their racial identity,” he wrote in October 2021. “Hispanic residents of our state are much more likely to identify as white than Hispanic residents of cities elsewhere in the country. With roots many generations deep in lands that were annexed from Mexican control to that of the U.S., many also actively reject being cast as immigrants.”
“Both campaigns are trying to win over Texas Hispanic voters,” KHOU reported last month. ”For the first time, Census estimates the Latino population has outgrown the white non-Latino population in Texas. More than 1 million new voters have registered in Texas. A growing number of them are young and Hispanic, but there's no guarantee they'll vote democratic.”
RELATED STORIES:
'Abbott says that he is with us, but where was he when we needed him?' Latino group's new ad asks
Most Latino voters want to see gun violence reform, abortion rights protection
Texas is prioritizing anti-immigrant stunts over the well-being of Uvalde residents
After an eruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.
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