If it’s a big election night with a close race at Daily Kos Elections, that means it’s time for county-by-county benchmarks! On Tuesday, we’re going to be watching the Virginia gubernatorial race intently. The race features a matchup between former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe—who’s running to replace term-limited Democratic incumbent Ralph Northam, in the one remaining state that doesn’t allow governors to serve consecutive terms—and Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin. Although McAuliffe had enjoyed polling leads of low- to mid-single digits for most of the race, in the last few weeks, Youngkin has taken the narrowest of advantages.
While Virginia saw fairly comfortable wins for Joe Biden in 2020 (54-44) and Northam in 2017 (54-45), the state is not blue enough such that a Democratic candidate can coast to victory. That’s especially true in an off-year election where there’s a Democrat in the White House. It’s worth noting, though, that in his previous bid in 2013, McAuliffe managed to beat the curse of “thermostatic public opinion,” winning narrowly against the backdrop of Barack Obama’s second term.
Virginia is also a particularly important state for using benchmarks to interpret early results as they first come in, since its smaller and more rural counties typically report earlier. This tends to make the first returns look much more Republican-leaning than where they finally end up. Our benchmarks accomplish two things: They focus your attention on the state’s most populous counties—the ones home to at least 2% of the state’s total votes, as opposed to the tiny ones that report the earliest—and they also tell you what minimum percentages the Democratic candidate should be hitting in those counties to be on track to win narrowly.
COUNTY
% OF 2020 STATEWIDE VOTE
WHAT Dems NEED TO WIN
2020 PRES. RESULTS
STATEWIDE
FAIRFAX
PRINCE WILLIAM
VIRGINIA BEACH
LOUDOUN
CHESTERFIELD
HENRICO
ARLINGTON
CHESAPEAKE
RICHMOND
NORFOLK
ALEXANDRIA
Just as an example, Biden won Fairfax County in the northern Virginia suburbs by a 70-28 margin, while winning statewide 54-44. So we aren’t sitting around wondering whether McAuliffe can win Fairfax; if he somehow lost the county, he would be en route to a catastrophic wipeout. Instead, the key question is whether he can win Fairfax by, say, 32 points or more, which is what would help him stay on pace to win statewide.
One brief warning: Virginia also has a small Fairfax city, which reports separately, so make sure you’re looking at the correct row on the election results. In addition, it also has a very small—and very red—Richmond County, so if you’re looking at the “Richmond” results, make sure you’re looking at the city. (One of Virginia’s other unique quirks is that its major cities operate independently from their surrounding counties, and its election results reflect that.)
Now, you might be thinking, “Why are we looking at presidential results? The gubernatorial race is an off-year election with totally different dynamics.” That’s a good question, and we’ve got you covered; here is an alternative model based on the 2017 gubernatorial election. You’ll notice, however, that the differences aren’t meaningful. The target benchmarks are close are very similar to those using 2020 as a model because the 2017 results were almost exactly the same as the 2020 results. Northam won by 9 points statewide compared to Biden’s 10-point win three years later, with similar-sized margins in the state’s largest counties.
COUNTY
% OF 2017 STATEWIDE VOTE
WHAT DEMS NEED TO WIN
2017 GOV. RESULTS
STATEWIDE
FAIRFAX
PRINCE WILLIAM
VIRGINIA BEACH
LOUDOUN
CHESTERFIELD
HENRICO
ARLINGTON
CHESAPEAKE
RICHMOND
NORFOLK
ALEXANDRIA
One interesting consequence of the increasing nationalization and polarization of our politics—one that becomes more evident when you compare various election results using a similar lens as we’re using—is that the criteria that pundits used to give a lot of weight to, like “favorite son” status in a particular part of a state, or the penalty that a more progressive candidate might suffer relative to a candidate closer to the theoretical “median voter,” just don’t usually have the same disproportionate impact that they used to. More and more, the main difference-maker is simply who has the “D” and who has the “R” after their names.
To that end, these benchmarks will also help track Virginia’s two other statewide contests, the open-seat race for lieutenant governor between Democrat Hala Ayala and Republican Winsome Sears, and Democrat Mark Herring’s bid for a third term as state attorney general against Republican Jason Miyares. Polling has shown all three races as similarly close, so they’ll likely rise and fall together, though it’s possible Herring might enjoy the tiniest of boosts as the only incumbent on the ballot.
Please join us at 7 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections for our liveblog. We’ll be covering not just Virginia’s statewide races but also the Old Dominion’s elections for all 100 seats in the state House—which Democrats control 55-45—and a wide variety of important contests across the country.
While Virginia saw fairly comfortable wins for Joe Biden in 2020 (54-44) and Northam in 2017 (54-45), the state is not blue enough such that a Democratic candidate can coast to victory. That’s especially true in an off-year election where there’s a Democrat in the White House. It’s worth noting, though, that in his previous bid in 2013, McAuliffe managed to beat the curse of “thermostatic public opinion,” winning narrowly against the backdrop of Barack Obama’s second term.
Virginia is also a particularly important state for using benchmarks to interpret early results as they first come in, since its smaller and more rural counties typically report earlier. This tends to make the first returns look much more Republican-leaning than where they finally end up. Our benchmarks accomplish two things: They focus your attention on the state’s most populous counties—the ones home to at least 2% of the state’s total votes, as opposed to the tiny ones that report the earliest—and they also tell you what minimum percentages the Democratic candidate should be hitting in those counties to be on track to win narrowly.
| --- | 49/49 | 54/44 |
| 13.5 | 65/33 | 70/28 |
| 5.1 | 58/41 | 63/36 |
| 5.1 | 47/51 | 52/46 |
| 5.0 | 57/42 | 62/37 |
| 4.6 | 47/51 | 52/46 |
| 4.1 | 59/40 | 64/35 |
| 2.9 | 76/22 | 81/17 |
| 2.8 | 47/51 | 52/46 |
| 2.5 | 78/20 | 83/15 |
| 2.0 | 67/31 | 72/26 |
| 1.8 | 75/23 | 80/18 |
COUNTY
% OF 2020 STATEWIDE VOTE
WHAT Dems NEED TO WIN
2020 PRES. RESULTS
STATEWIDE
FAIRFAX
PRINCE WILLIAM
VIRGINIA BEACH
LOUDOUN
CHESTERFIELD
HENRICO
ARLINGTON
CHESAPEAKE
RICHMOND
NORFOLK
ALEXANDRIA
Just as an example, Biden won Fairfax County in the northern Virginia suburbs by a 70-28 margin, while winning statewide 54-44. So we aren’t sitting around wondering whether McAuliffe can win Fairfax; if he somehow lost the county, he would be en route to a catastrophic wipeout. Instead, the key question is whether he can win Fairfax by, say, 32 points or more, which is what would help him stay on pace to win statewide.
One brief warning: Virginia also has a small Fairfax city, which reports separately, so make sure you’re looking at the correct row on the election results. In addition, it also has a very small—and very red—Richmond County, so if you’re looking at the “Richmond” results, make sure you’re looking at the city. (One of Virginia’s other unique quirks is that its major cities operate independently from their surrounding counties, and its election results reflect that.)
Now, you might be thinking, “Why are we looking at presidential results? The gubernatorial race is an off-year election with totally different dynamics.” That’s a good question, and we’ve got you covered; here is an alternative model based on the 2017 gubernatorial election. You’ll notice, however, that the differences aren’t meaningful. The target benchmarks are close are very similar to those using 2020 as a model because the 2017 results were almost exactly the same as the 2020 results. Northam won by 9 points statewide compared to Biden’s 10-point win three years later, with similar-sized margins in the state’s largest counties.
| --- | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| 14.4 | 64/35 | 68/31 |
| 4.7 | 57/42 | 61/38 |
| 4.9 | 48/51 | 52/47 |
| 4.5 | 55/43 | 59/39 |
| 4.5 | 46/53 | 50/49 |
| 4.4 | 57/42 | 61/38 |
| 3.3 | 76/23 | 80/19 |
| 2.8 | 49/50 | 53/46 |
| 2.7 | 77/21 | 81/17 |
| 2.0 | 70/29 | 74/25 |
| 1.8 | 74/25 | 78/21 |
COUNTY
% OF 2017 STATEWIDE VOTE
WHAT DEMS NEED TO WIN
2017 GOV. RESULTS
STATEWIDE
FAIRFAX
PRINCE WILLIAM
VIRGINIA BEACH
LOUDOUN
CHESTERFIELD
HENRICO
ARLINGTON
CHESAPEAKE
RICHMOND
NORFOLK
ALEXANDRIA
One interesting consequence of the increasing nationalization and polarization of our politics—one that becomes more evident when you compare various election results using a similar lens as we’re using—is that the criteria that pundits used to give a lot of weight to, like “favorite son” status in a particular part of a state, or the penalty that a more progressive candidate might suffer relative to a candidate closer to the theoretical “median voter,” just don’t usually have the same disproportionate impact that they used to. More and more, the main difference-maker is simply who has the “D” and who has the “R” after their names.
To that end, these benchmarks will also help track Virginia’s two other statewide contests, the open-seat race for lieutenant governor between Democrat Hala Ayala and Republican Winsome Sears, and Democrat Mark Herring’s bid for a third term as state attorney general against Republican Jason Miyares. Polling has shown all three races as similarly close, so they’ll likely rise and fall together, though it’s possible Herring might enjoy the tiniest of boosts as the only incumbent on the ballot.
Please join us at 7 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections for our liveblog. We’ll be covering not just Virginia’s statewide races but also the Old Dominion’s elections for all 100 seats in the state House—which Democrats control 55-45—and a wide variety of important contests across the country.