Overall participation in the 2020 election among U.S. adults rose 7 points from 2016 to reach 66% last year. A new analysis of validated voters from Pew Research Center (which provides a bigger, more reliable sample than exit polls) built on several of the 2020 trends that have already been reported. Here’re some of the key takeaways:
One in 4 voters in 2020, or 25%, had not voted in 2016. About 6% of those new 2020 voters turned out in 2018, spiking participation in that midterm election. And voters who turned out in 2018 after skipping the 2016 presidential election were about twice as likely to back Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020.
But the 19% of new voters who came out in 2020 after skipping both 2016 and the midterms divided up almost evenly among Biden and Trump, 49%-47%. However, what was most notable about that group of new 2020 voters was the age disparity, writes Pew:
Between 2016 and 2020, the electorate apparently got the memo that rolling the dice on a third-party candidate against Trump was effectively rolling the dice on democracy.
While 6% of 2016 voters cast a ballot for one of several third-party candidates, just 2% of the electorate voted third party in 2020.
Biden made a solid nine-point gain with suburban voters, winning 54% of their vote compared to Hillary Clinton's 45% share.
While Biden still won a 59% majority of Latino voters, Trump made double-digit gains among the demographic, winning 38% of them. In 2016, Clinton carried Latino voters 66%-28%.
That's likely one reason that Democrats did so well with Latino voters in 2018, winning them 72%-25%, according to Pew. The higher one's education level, the more likely one is to vote in a midterm election.
In 2016, Trump won men by 11 points, but in 2020 they split almost even between Trump and Biden, 50%-48%, respectively. Women stayed roughly as loyal to Democrats in both presidential elections, with Biden garnering 55% to Clinton's 54%, but Trump increased his share of the female vote by five points in 2020 compared to 2016, 44%-39%.
As has been previously reported, Biden made gains among white men while Trump increased his showing among white women.
So in 2016, Trump won a plurality of white women, but in 2020 he won a narrow majority. Trump won a majority of white men in both cycles, but Biden trimmed Trump’s margins in 2020 by nearly half. Overall, Trump's losses among white men and gains among white women decreased the gender gap among white voters.
Biden gained five points among white voters with only some college or less, winning 33% to Clinton's 28%, while Trump's numbers stayed about the same at 65% in 2020 versus 64% in 2015.
New 2020 voters
One in 4 voters in 2020, or 25%, had not voted in 2016. About 6% of those new 2020 voters turned out in 2018, spiking participation in that midterm election. And voters who turned out in 2018 after skipping the 2016 presidential election were about twice as likely to back Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020.
But the 19% of new voters who came out in 2020 after skipping both 2016 and the midterms divided up almost evenly among Biden and Trump, 49%-47%. However, what was most notable about that group of new 2020 voters was the age disparity, writes Pew:
Third party
Between 2016 and 2020, the electorate apparently got the memo that rolling the dice on a third-party candidate against Trump was effectively rolling the dice on democracy.
While 6% of 2016 voters cast a ballot for one of several third-party candidates, just 2% of the electorate voted third party in 2020.
Suburban voters
Biden made a solid nine-point gain with suburban voters, winning 54% of their vote compared to Hillary Clinton's 45% share.
Latino voters
While Biden still won a 59% majority of Latino voters, Trump made double-digit gains among the demographic, winning 38% of them. In 2016, Clinton carried Latino voters 66%-28%.
That's likely one reason that Democrats did so well with Latino voters in 2018, winning them 72%-25%, according to Pew. The higher one's education level, the more likely one is to vote in a midterm election.
Men vs. women
In 2016, Trump won men by 11 points, but in 2020 they split almost even between Trump and Biden, 50%-48%, respectively. Women stayed roughly as loyal to Democrats in both presidential elections, with Biden garnering 55% to Clinton's 54%, but Trump increased his share of the female vote by five points in 2020 compared to 2016, 44%-39%.
As has been previously reported, Biden made gains among white men while Trump increased his showing among white women.
So in 2016, Trump won a plurality of white women, but in 2020 he won a narrow majority. Trump won a majority of white men in both cycles, but Biden trimmed Trump’s margins in 2020 by nearly half. Overall, Trump's losses among white men and gains among white women decreased the gender gap among white voters.
White noncollege voters
Biden gained five points among white voters with only some college or less, winning 33% to Clinton's 28%, while Trump's numbers stayed about the same at 65% in 2020 versus 64% in 2015.