Voters across four states pick their candidates Tuesday for downballot offices, including in multiple House races where incumbents are in danger of losing, in one of the biggest primary nights of the year. Donald Trump is doing his part to make this night eventful by endorsing 12 candidates in eight competitive races—yes, you read that right.
Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top primaries to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for four states: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting at 8 PM ET, when polls close in Missouri as well as in most of Kansas and Michigan. Join us for our complete coverage!
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central time zone, where virtually all Kansans live, and an hour later in four sparsely populated counties along the state's western border with Colorado. Individual counties have the option to keep their polls open an extra hour.
• KS-02 (R) (57-41 Trump): Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner surprised just about everyone in April when he announced his retirement from Congress at the ripe age of 36, but a familiar name quickly emerged as the favorite to replace him. Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, despite his narrow loss to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2022, retains plenty of name recognition and establishment support, and he picked up Trump's endorsement late in the contest.
A few other Republicans, however, are hoping Schmidt isn't as strong as he looks in this constituency, which includes the state capital of Topeka, Kansas City, and parts of eastern Kansas. Businessman Shawn Tiffany is airing ads unsubtly attacking the former attorney general's record as a "smelly pile of Schmidt," while former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs also hopes to succeed his old boss.
• Johnson County Sheriff (R) (53-45 Biden): Sheriff Calvin Hayden, who has spent the last few years spreading election conspiracy theories, faces a Republican primary challenge from former undersheriff Doug Bedford in Kansas' largest county.
Bedford, who has expressed faith that votes are being counted fairly, is arguing that the incumbent is wasting taxpayer money on his quest. The challenger has the support of former Sheriff Frank Denning, who has declared that Bedford's win is essential to restoring faith in the office.
The winner will take on Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson, a Democrat who was the first Black person to lead a police department in the county. Johnson County, which is based in the Kansas City suburbs, is a longtime GOP bastion that backed only Republican presidential candidates for the 100 years before Joe Biden's historic 2020 win there. Roberson has cited this, as well as his party's continuing success in the county, to make his case that he can defeat either Republican.
Polls close at 8 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where almost all Michiganders live, and an hour later in four small counties in the Upper Peninsula along the state's western border with Wisconsin.
• MI-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are preparing to face off in a competitive race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but they each have to dispatch a notable intraparty opponent first.
Slotkin's foe is Hill Harper, an actor who is best known for his role on "The Good Doctor." Harper, though, has not been a good fundraiser, and he hasn't benefited from any major outside spending.
Rogers' opponent is former Rep. Justin Amash, who over the past few years has switched his party affiliation from Republican to independent to Libertarian before ultimately rejoining the GOP. Trump and Senate Republicans are supporting Rogers over Amash, who voted to impeach Trump in 2019 and hasn't brought in much money for his new campaign.
• MI-08 (D & R) (50-48 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in this swing seat, which is based in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas, but this is another race where there's a front-runner for each side.
The Democratic favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC. Her main rival appears to be businessman Matt Collier, an Army veteran who was elected mayor of Flint in 1987 but lost reelection four years later. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is also in, but she's struggled to bring in money to run a serious effort. A late June poll for a pro-Collier group showed McDonald Rivet leading him 32-19, and we haven't seen any data since then.
The Republican's main candidate is Paul Junge, a former Trump administration official who picked up his old boss' endorsement in late July. Junge, though, has run for the House twice already without success: In 2020 he lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51-47 in the old 8th District, while he fell to Kildee 53-43 two years later, following redistricting. (Despite sharing a number, the two incarnations of the 8th District don't include any of the same territory.)
Republicans looking for an alternative to Junge, whom Kildee successfully attacked as an outsider, got some welcome news in April when retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves launched her own campaign. Junge, though, has used his personal wealth to finance ads attacking Draves for serving on Whitmer's Council on Climate Solutions and for donating to McDonald Rivet's own political action committee. Junge has released several surveys showing him easily beating Draves, and his opponent has not publicized any polls showing her in better shape.
• MI-10 (D) (50-49 Trump): Four Democrats are on the ballot to take on freshman Republican Rep. John James in this competitive seat based in Macomb County, though none of them have raised much money to flip this suburban Detroit seat.
The most familiar name on the ballot is former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, a longtime local politician who held James to an unexpectedly tight 49-48 victory in 2022 despite receiving little outside help. But while Marlinga is arguing that close shave proves he can win, gun safety activist Emily Busch is arguing he's failed on abortion rights. The field also includes financial adviser Diane Young and state Board of Education member Tiffany Tilley.
• MI-13 (D) (74-25 Biden): Freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar faces Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters in a volatile primary where the challenger is hoping her long service in local politics will help her overcome a truly staggering financial disadvantage.
Thanedar two years ago narrowly beat former state Sen. Adam Hollier for the Democratic primary, and his subsequent election meant that, for the first time since the 1950s, heavily Black Detroit did not have an African American member of Congress. (Thanedar is Indian American, while Detroit's other representative, Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)
Hollier launched a rematch campaign last year against the new congressman, whom Tlaib accused of being "absent from doing his job," but the race took a shocking turn this spring when Hollier failed to submit enough signatures to make the ballot. Waters, who had been running an underfunded campaign, immediately became Thanedar's main opponent, and she picked up the support of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.
But while Waters, who is Black, is arguing that the Motor City once again needs a Black member of Congress, she still has little money to get that message out against the wealthy Thanedar. A pair of super PACs, including the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, have also spent over $3 million to sink Waters. Some of this spending has gone to promote a third candidate, Shakira Hawkins, in what appears to be an effort to split the anti-Thanedar vote.
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.
• MO-Gov (R & D) (57-41 Trump): Gov. Mike Parson is termed out of office, and three prominent fellows Republicans are competing in an expensive and nasty race to replace him: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel. A pair of polls conducted in late July for the nonpartisan political tipsheet Missouri Scout showed Ashcroft and Kehoe tied, with Eigel 9 to 11 percentage points behind them.
Trump, who since late July has made it a habit to endorse multiple candidates for the same office, has thrown his support behind all three of them. This has allowed each member of this trio to run ads proclaiming that they're "endorsed by Trump," though they haven't been in a hurry to share that their rivals also have that distinction.
Ashcroft spent months as the favorite for the job that his father and namesake, John Ashcroft, held before becoming a U.S. senator and later George W. Bush's first attorney general. But while the younger Ashcroft attracted attention last year for, among other things, unsuccessfully using the power of his office to sabotage a series of proposed abortion-rights amendments, he's struggled to bring in money throughout the campaign. He got some welcome news late in the campaign, however, when a little-known super PAC deployed millions to aid him.
Fundraising has not been a problem for Kehoe, who has decisively outspent his rivals. The lieutenant governor has spent months attacking Ashcroft, though he's also focused on making sure Eigel doesn't emerge unscathed. But while the lieutenant governor is an ardent conservative who has Parson's endorsement, he's acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades."
That's a not-so-subtle knock on Eigel, who generated national attention last year when he deployed a flamethrower at an event and later said he'd use it to immolate books "on the front lawn of the governor's mansion." Eigel, who belongs to his state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, has a horrible relationship with his chamber's leaders, whom he's compared to Darth Vader. ("[W]e're not Darth Vader," protested Senate Majority Leader Cindy O'Laughlin.)
Things are considerably quieter on the Democratic side, though two contenders are hoping GOP infighting will give them an opening in what used to be a swing state. Those two candidates are state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessman Mike Hamra, whose company operates almost 200 restaurants nationwide.
• MO-01 (D) (78-20 Biden): Two-term Rep. Cori Bush is trying to turn back a well-funded challenge from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell in what AdImpact says is the second-most expensive House primary in American history. Outside groups have spent over $12 million to defeat Bush in the St. Louis area, while her supporters have directed $3 million to help her.
Most of this anti-Bush spending comes from AIPAC's United Democracy Project, which wants to defeat one of the most ardent critics of Israel's government, though other organizations like the crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake are also running ads against her. The incumbent's main ally, by contrast, is the progressive group Justice Democrats.
Bush's detractors are utilizing a similar strategy to the one they successfully deployed against New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman this year in what remains the priciest House primary ever. Her opponents have taken her to task for voting against Biden administration priorities from the left, and they've accused her of taking credit for securing billions in federal aid from bills she didn't vote for.
Those ads, however, have largely avoided attacking Bush over the ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into allegations that she misused campaign funds to pay her husband for security services. The story may be hurting the congresswoman in another way, however, as she's used her campaign account to pay for legal fees rather than to support her reelection effort.
Bush's side is fighting back by trying to argue that Bell's support from AIPAC, which receives much of its funding from Republican donors, is too close to the GOP. The congresswoman is also airing a commercial where the father and sister of Michael Brown accuse Bell of lying to them by going back on a pledge to charge Darren Wilson, the Ferguson police officer who killed their loved one in 2014.
The only recent poll we've seen was a late July survey for Bell's allies at Democratic Majority for Israel that showed him outpacing Bush 48-42. That survey showed little support for the other two candidates, former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and 2022 hopeful Ron Harshaw, though their presence could end up mattering in a tight contest.
• MO-03 (R) (62-36 Trump): While seven Republicans are on the ballot here, the primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in this central Missouri seat is essentially an expensive duel between two former state senators, Bob Onder and Kurt Schaefer.
Trump has endorsed Onder, who was a member of the predecessor to the state legislature's Freedom Caucus. Luetkemeyer, though, is supporting his old ally Schaefer over Onder, whom the now-congressman defeated in a bitter 2008 race for the now-defunct 9th District. A mid-July poll released by Onder’s campaign gave him a 34-14 advantage over his intraparty rival, but Schaefer's hoping a well-financed offensive will help him change that.
Schaefer has benefited from around $5 million in outside support, including from a group that has devoted itself to stopping hard-line candidates who could cause headaches for the House GOP leadership and from a super PAC partially funded by Luetkemeyer. (The outgoing congressman also is no fan of the national Freedom Caucus.) Pro-Onder outfits, including the far-right Club for Growth, have spent a smaller but still substantive $3 million to aid him.
• MO-AG (R) (57-41 Trump): The Republican primary for attorney general of Missouri is an expensive proxy battle between state party leaders and some of the party's most influential national donors. In one corner is incumbent Andrew Bailey, whom Gov. Mike Parson appointed after their fellow Republican, Eric Schmitt, was elected to the Senate in 2022. His opponent is Trump attorney Will Scharf, who is a protégé of powerful conservative Leonard Leo.
There's little policy difference between the two Republicans, who have both spread lies about the 2020 election and each has Trump's endorsement. Scharf, though, is arguing that the party needs an attorney general who isn't connected to what he's portrayed as a corrupt state government. Bailey, meanwhile, is highlighting how Scharf grew up in New York City and Florida and his 2007 arrest for serving alcohol to underage college students.
AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies have outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on advertising. Every poll that's been released, however, has shown the attorney general ahead, including a late July survey for the Missouri Scout that gave him a 41-30 advantage.
• MO Ballot (57-41 Trump): The Missouri Supreme Court this spring declared that a new vote was required for a 2022 state constitutional amendment that empowered the state legislature to require Kansas City to spend at least 25% of its general revenue on its police because the original version included a flawed fiscal summary. But while this marked a legal victory for Kansas City, which is the only major city in America that doesn't have control over its own police force, it would still be a surprise if Amendment 4 failed two years after statewide voters approved it by a 63-37 margin.
Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.
Washington’s top-two primary requires all candidates to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 5 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in August by taking a majority of the vote.
• WA-Gov (58-38 Biden): While a grand total of 28 people are on the ballot to succeed Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who is retiring after three terms in office, there's little question that the general election will be between Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert.
Each man, though, still faces one notable intra-party foe. The State Republican Party is backing Semi Bird, a far-right Army veteran who was one of three Richland School Board members recalled last year for defying the state's COVID protocols and make it optional to wear masks in local public schools. Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who is one of the most prominent moderates in the legislature meanwhile, has benefited from some heavy outside spending on his behalf. Polls, though, show neither Bird not Mullet posing a threat to their respective parties' frontrunners.
• WA-03 (51-47 Trump): Both parties have long anticipated a general election rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and election conspiracy theorist Joe Kent two years after Gluesenkamp Perez's 50-49 upset helped Democrats win every House seat that touches the Pacific Ocean. Kent, though, first needs to get past another Republican, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, who is arguing, "He had his chance, he lost."
Lewallen's pitch, however, doesn't seem to be resonating with conservatives in southwestern Washington or nationally. A late June internal poll released by Kent’s campaign showed him beating her 34-6 for the second general election spot, with Gluesenkamp Perez at 38%. Trump went on to endorse Kent the following month.
• WA-04 (57-40 Trump): Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, faces two intraparty rivals in a chaotic race for this conservative seat in central Washington. Those opponents are former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, who unsuccessfully ran here in 2022, and Tiffany Smiley, who was the GOP’s nominee against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray that same year.
Sessler, until Saturday, was Trump's only endorsed candidate in this race. But while Sessler has accused Smiley of running only to help Newhouse, Trump announced over the weekend that he was also supporting her. Smiley, for her part, has run ads attacking both Newhouse's impeachment vote and calling Sessler a vegan who "wants to tax our beef," allegations Sessler has ardently denied.
It's possible that two of these three Republicans will advance because, unlike in 2022, there's no one candidate for the district's Democrats to consolidate behind. Instead, three other candidates are campaigning as Democrats, while a fourth will be listed on the ballot as a "MAGA Democrat."
• WA-05 (54-44 Trump): Six Republicans and five Democrats are facing off in a packed race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the Spokane area.
The top fundraiser is Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, a former Republican state senator who came nowhere close to unseating Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell in 2012. His main rival appears to be state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber, who is the rare Republican who has the support of the Washington State Labor Council. (The AFL-CIO affiliate is also backing one of the Democrats, former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy.)
The GOP field also includes former Trump administration official Brian Dansel, Spokane City Councilman Jonathan Bingle, and Rene' Holaday, a radio host who has called for turning the eastern part of the state into a separate theocracy—even if "bloodshed" is necessary.
In addition to Conroy, the Democratic side includes physician Bernadine Bank and businesswoman Ann Marie Danimus. While it would be difficult for any of these candidates to prevail in a seat this conservative, though it's possible one of them could secure one of the general election spots that might have otherwise gone to a Republican.
• WA-06 (57-40 Biden): Two prominent Democrats, Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz and state Sen. Emily Randall, are campaigning to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in a seat based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma. Republican state Sen. Drew MacEwen is also in, and while he's raised little money, he may be able to grab one of the general election slots.
Franz has Kilner's endorsement, and she's brought in more money than Randall. Randall, though, has the backing of Sen. Patty Murray and several labor groups, including ones that represent Franz's employees in state government.
The state senator has also benefited from over $2 million in outside spending, while there's been no serious overlay for Franz. Much of the pro-Randall ads have come from the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, which has informed viewers that she "would make history as the first LGBTQ Latina in Congress."
• WA Commissioner of Public Lands (58-38 Biden): While Evergreen State Republicans don't hold a single statewide office, the state's top two primary rules give them a chance to flip the commissioner of public lands office well before the November general election.
Two Republicans and five Democrats are campaigning to replace Democrat Hilary Franz as the head of a post that, among other things, runs the state's Department of Natural Resources and handles Washington's wildfire-fighting efforts. The most prominent candidate in the race is former GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who lost renomination in 2022 after voting to impeach Donald Trump. The other Republican is Sue Kuehl Pederson, who lost to Franz 57-43 in 2020.
A late July poll for the Northwest Progressive Institute showed Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson respectively at 18% and 12% in a race where no Democrat has emerged as the party's front-runner. King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove was a distant third, with 6%, compared with 5% each for state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege and Redmond City Councilmember Jeralee Anderson. Two DNR officials, Patrick DePoe and Allen Lebovitz, clocked in with 4% and 3%.
Democrats are hoping that one candidate can surge ahead and stop Republicans from winning this post by default. If they fail, though, there is talk of progressives waging a write-in campaign to stop the general election from being only a choice between Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson, though state law would bar any of the five current candidates from filling that role.
Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top primaries to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for four states: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting at 8 PM ET, when polls close in Missouri as well as in most of Kansas and Michigan. Join us for our complete coverage!
Kansas
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central time zone, where virtually all Kansans live, and an hour later in four sparsely populated counties along the state's western border with Colorado. Individual counties have the option to keep their polls open an extra hour.
• KS-02 (R) (57-41 Trump): Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner surprised just about everyone in April when he announced his retirement from Congress at the ripe age of 36, but a familiar name quickly emerged as the favorite to replace him. Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, despite his narrow loss to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2022, retains plenty of name recognition and establishment support, and he picked up Trump's endorsement late in the contest.
A few other Republicans, however, are hoping Schmidt isn't as strong as he looks in this constituency, which includes the state capital of Topeka, Kansas City, and parts of eastern Kansas. Businessman Shawn Tiffany is airing ads unsubtly attacking the former attorney general's record as a "smelly pile of Schmidt," while former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs also hopes to succeed his old boss.
• Johnson County Sheriff (R) (53-45 Biden): Sheriff Calvin Hayden, who has spent the last few years spreading election conspiracy theories, faces a Republican primary challenge from former undersheriff Doug Bedford in Kansas' largest county.
Bedford, who has expressed faith that votes are being counted fairly, is arguing that the incumbent is wasting taxpayer money on his quest. The challenger has the support of former Sheriff Frank Denning, who has declared that Bedford's win is essential to restoring faith in the office.
The winner will take on Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson, a Democrat who was the first Black person to lead a police department in the county. Johnson County, which is based in the Kansas City suburbs, is a longtime GOP bastion that backed only Republican presidential candidates for the 100 years before Joe Biden's historic 2020 win there. Roberson has cited this, as well as his party's continuing success in the county, to make his case that he can defeat either Republican.
Michigan
Polls close at 8 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where almost all Michiganders live, and an hour later in four small counties in the Upper Peninsula along the state's western border with Wisconsin.
• MI-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are preparing to face off in a competitive race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but they each have to dispatch a notable intraparty opponent first.
Slotkin's foe is Hill Harper, an actor who is best known for his role on "The Good Doctor." Harper, though, has not been a good fundraiser, and he hasn't benefited from any major outside spending.
Rogers' opponent is former Rep. Justin Amash, who over the past few years has switched his party affiliation from Republican to independent to Libertarian before ultimately rejoining the GOP. Trump and Senate Republicans are supporting Rogers over Amash, who voted to impeach Trump in 2019 and hasn't brought in much money for his new campaign.
• MI-08 (D & R) (50-48 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in this swing seat, which is based in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas, but this is another race where there's a front-runner for each side.
The Democratic favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC. Her main rival appears to be businessman Matt Collier, an Army veteran who was elected mayor of Flint in 1987 but lost reelection four years later. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is also in, but she's struggled to bring in money to run a serious effort. A late June poll for a pro-Collier group showed McDonald Rivet leading him 32-19, and we haven't seen any data since then.
The Republican's main candidate is Paul Junge, a former Trump administration official who picked up his old boss' endorsement in late July. Junge, though, has run for the House twice already without success: In 2020 he lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51-47 in the old 8th District, while he fell to Kildee 53-43 two years later, following redistricting. (Despite sharing a number, the two incarnations of the 8th District don't include any of the same territory.)
Republicans looking for an alternative to Junge, whom Kildee successfully attacked as an outsider, got some welcome news in April when retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves launched her own campaign. Junge, though, has used his personal wealth to finance ads attacking Draves for serving on Whitmer's Council on Climate Solutions and for donating to McDonald Rivet's own political action committee. Junge has released several surveys showing him easily beating Draves, and his opponent has not publicized any polls showing her in better shape.
• MI-10 (D) (50-49 Trump): Four Democrats are on the ballot to take on freshman Republican Rep. John James in this competitive seat based in Macomb County, though none of them have raised much money to flip this suburban Detroit seat.
The most familiar name on the ballot is former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, a longtime local politician who held James to an unexpectedly tight 49-48 victory in 2022 despite receiving little outside help. But while Marlinga is arguing that close shave proves he can win, gun safety activist Emily Busch is arguing he's failed on abortion rights. The field also includes financial adviser Diane Young and state Board of Education member Tiffany Tilley.
• MI-13 (D) (74-25 Biden): Freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar faces Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters in a volatile primary where the challenger is hoping her long service in local politics will help her overcome a truly staggering financial disadvantage.
Thanedar two years ago narrowly beat former state Sen. Adam Hollier for the Democratic primary, and his subsequent election meant that, for the first time since the 1950s, heavily Black Detroit did not have an African American member of Congress. (Thanedar is Indian American, while Detroit's other representative, Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)
Hollier launched a rematch campaign last year against the new congressman, whom Tlaib accused of being "absent from doing his job," but the race took a shocking turn this spring when Hollier failed to submit enough signatures to make the ballot. Waters, who had been running an underfunded campaign, immediately became Thanedar's main opponent, and she picked up the support of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.
But while Waters, who is Black, is arguing that the Motor City once again needs a Black member of Congress, she still has little money to get that message out against the wealthy Thanedar. A pair of super PACs, including the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, have also spent over $3 million to sink Waters. Some of this spending has gone to promote a third candidate, Shakira Hawkins, in what appears to be an effort to split the anti-Thanedar vote.
Missouri
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.
• MO-Gov (R & D) (57-41 Trump): Gov. Mike Parson is termed out of office, and three prominent fellows Republicans are competing in an expensive and nasty race to replace him: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel. A pair of polls conducted in late July for the nonpartisan political tipsheet Missouri Scout showed Ashcroft and Kehoe tied, with Eigel 9 to 11 percentage points behind them.
Trump, who since late July has made it a habit to endorse multiple candidates for the same office, has thrown his support behind all three of them. This has allowed each member of this trio to run ads proclaiming that they're "endorsed by Trump," though they haven't been in a hurry to share that their rivals also have that distinction.
Ashcroft spent months as the favorite for the job that his father and namesake, John Ashcroft, held before becoming a U.S. senator and later George W. Bush's first attorney general. But while the younger Ashcroft attracted attention last year for, among other things, unsuccessfully using the power of his office to sabotage a series of proposed abortion-rights amendments, he's struggled to bring in money throughout the campaign. He got some welcome news late in the campaign, however, when a little-known super PAC deployed millions to aid him.
Fundraising has not been a problem for Kehoe, who has decisively outspent his rivals. The lieutenant governor has spent months attacking Ashcroft, though he's also focused on making sure Eigel doesn't emerge unscathed. But while the lieutenant governor is an ardent conservative who has Parson's endorsement, he's acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades."
That's a not-so-subtle knock on Eigel, who generated national attention last year when he deployed a flamethrower at an event and later said he'd use it to immolate books "on the front lawn of the governor's mansion." Eigel, who belongs to his state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, has a horrible relationship with his chamber's leaders, whom he's compared to Darth Vader. ("[W]e're not Darth Vader," protested Senate Majority Leader Cindy O'Laughlin.)
Things are considerably quieter on the Democratic side, though two contenders are hoping GOP infighting will give them an opening in what used to be a swing state. Those two candidates are state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessman Mike Hamra, whose company operates almost 200 restaurants nationwide.
• MO-01 (D) (78-20 Biden): Two-term Rep. Cori Bush is trying to turn back a well-funded challenge from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell in what AdImpact says is the second-most expensive House primary in American history. Outside groups have spent over $12 million to defeat Bush in the St. Louis area, while her supporters have directed $3 million to help her.
Most of this anti-Bush spending comes from AIPAC's United Democracy Project, which wants to defeat one of the most ardent critics of Israel's government, though other organizations like the crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake are also running ads against her. The incumbent's main ally, by contrast, is the progressive group Justice Democrats.
Bush's detractors are utilizing a similar strategy to the one they successfully deployed against New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman this year in what remains the priciest House primary ever. Her opponents have taken her to task for voting against Biden administration priorities from the left, and they've accused her of taking credit for securing billions in federal aid from bills she didn't vote for.
Those ads, however, have largely avoided attacking Bush over the ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into allegations that she misused campaign funds to pay her husband for security services. The story may be hurting the congresswoman in another way, however, as she's used her campaign account to pay for legal fees rather than to support her reelection effort.
Bush's side is fighting back by trying to argue that Bell's support from AIPAC, which receives much of its funding from Republican donors, is too close to the GOP. The congresswoman is also airing a commercial where the father and sister of Michael Brown accuse Bell of lying to them by going back on a pledge to charge Darren Wilson, the Ferguson police officer who killed their loved one in 2014.
The only recent poll we've seen was a late July survey for Bell's allies at Democratic Majority for Israel that showed him outpacing Bush 48-42. That survey showed little support for the other two candidates, former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and 2022 hopeful Ron Harshaw, though their presence could end up mattering in a tight contest.
• MO-03 (R) (62-36 Trump): While seven Republicans are on the ballot here, the primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in this central Missouri seat is essentially an expensive duel between two former state senators, Bob Onder and Kurt Schaefer.
Trump has endorsed Onder, who was a member of the predecessor to the state legislature's Freedom Caucus. Luetkemeyer, though, is supporting his old ally Schaefer over Onder, whom the now-congressman defeated in a bitter 2008 race for the now-defunct 9th District. A mid-July poll released by Onder’s campaign gave him a 34-14 advantage over his intraparty rival, but Schaefer's hoping a well-financed offensive will help him change that.
Schaefer has benefited from around $5 million in outside support, including from a group that has devoted itself to stopping hard-line candidates who could cause headaches for the House GOP leadership and from a super PAC partially funded by Luetkemeyer. (The outgoing congressman also is no fan of the national Freedom Caucus.) Pro-Onder outfits, including the far-right Club for Growth, have spent a smaller but still substantive $3 million to aid him.
• MO-AG (R) (57-41 Trump): The Republican primary for attorney general of Missouri is an expensive proxy battle between state party leaders and some of the party's most influential national donors. In one corner is incumbent Andrew Bailey, whom Gov. Mike Parson appointed after their fellow Republican, Eric Schmitt, was elected to the Senate in 2022. His opponent is Trump attorney Will Scharf, who is a protégé of powerful conservative Leonard Leo.
There's little policy difference between the two Republicans, who have both spread lies about the 2020 election and each has Trump's endorsement. Scharf, though, is arguing that the party needs an attorney general who isn't connected to what he's portrayed as a corrupt state government. Bailey, meanwhile, is highlighting how Scharf grew up in New York City and Florida and his 2007 arrest for serving alcohol to underage college students.
AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies have outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on advertising. Every poll that's been released, however, has shown the attorney general ahead, including a late July survey for the Missouri Scout that gave him a 41-30 advantage.
• MO Ballot (57-41 Trump): The Missouri Supreme Court this spring declared that a new vote was required for a 2022 state constitutional amendment that empowered the state legislature to require Kansas City to spend at least 25% of its general revenue on its police because the original version included a flawed fiscal summary. But while this marked a legal victory for Kansas City, which is the only major city in America that doesn't have control over its own police force, it would still be a surprise if Amendment 4 failed two years after statewide voters approved it by a 63-37 margin.
Washington
Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.
Washington’s top-two primary requires all candidates to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 5 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in August by taking a majority of the vote.
• WA-Gov (58-38 Biden): While a grand total of 28 people are on the ballot to succeed Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who is retiring after three terms in office, there's little question that the general election will be between Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert.
Each man, though, still faces one notable intra-party foe. The State Republican Party is backing Semi Bird, a far-right Army veteran who was one of three Richland School Board members recalled last year for defying the state's COVID protocols and make it optional to wear masks in local public schools. Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who is one of the most prominent moderates in the legislature meanwhile, has benefited from some heavy outside spending on his behalf. Polls, though, show neither Bird not Mullet posing a threat to their respective parties' frontrunners.
• WA-03 (51-47 Trump): Both parties have long anticipated a general election rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and election conspiracy theorist Joe Kent two years after Gluesenkamp Perez's 50-49 upset helped Democrats win every House seat that touches the Pacific Ocean. Kent, though, first needs to get past another Republican, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, who is arguing, "He had his chance, he lost."
Lewallen's pitch, however, doesn't seem to be resonating with conservatives in southwestern Washington or nationally. A late June internal poll released by Kent’s campaign showed him beating her 34-6 for the second general election spot, with Gluesenkamp Perez at 38%. Trump went on to endorse Kent the following month.
• WA-04 (57-40 Trump): Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, faces two intraparty rivals in a chaotic race for this conservative seat in central Washington. Those opponents are former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, who unsuccessfully ran here in 2022, and Tiffany Smiley, who was the GOP’s nominee against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray that same year.
Sessler, until Saturday, was Trump's only endorsed candidate in this race. But while Sessler has accused Smiley of running only to help Newhouse, Trump announced over the weekend that he was also supporting her. Smiley, for her part, has run ads attacking both Newhouse's impeachment vote and calling Sessler a vegan who "wants to tax our beef," allegations Sessler has ardently denied.
It's possible that two of these three Republicans will advance because, unlike in 2022, there's no one candidate for the district's Democrats to consolidate behind. Instead, three other candidates are campaigning as Democrats, while a fourth will be listed on the ballot as a "MAGA Democrat."
• WA-05 (54-44 Trump): Six Republicans and five Democrats are facing off in a packed race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the Spokane area.
The top fundraiser is Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, a former Republican state senator who came nowhere close to unseating Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell in 2012. His main rival appears to be state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber, who is the rare Republican who has the support of the Washington State Labor Council. (The AFL-CIO affiliate is also backing one of the Democrats, former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy.)
The GOP field also includes former Trump administration official Brian Dansel, Spokane City Councilman Jonathan Bingle, and Rene' Holaday, a radio host who has called for turning the eastern part of the state into a separate theocracy—even if "bloodshed" is necessary.
In addition to Conroy, the Democratic side includes physician Bernadine Bank and businesswoman Ann Marie Danimus. While it would be difficult for any of these candidates to prevail in a seat this conservative, though it's possible one of them could secure one of the general election spots that might have otherwise gone to a Republican.
• WA-06 (57-40 Biden): Two prominent Democrats, Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz and state Sen. Emily Randall, are campaigning to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in a seat based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma. Republican state Sen. Drew MacEwen is also in, and while he's raised little money, he may be able to grab one of the general election slots.
Franz has Kilner's endorsement, and she's brought in more money than Randall. Randall, though, has the backing of Sen. Patty Murray and several labor groups, including ones that represent Franz's employees in state government.
The state senator has also benefited from over $2 million in outside spending, while there's been no serious overlay for Franz. Much of the pro-Randall ads have come from the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, which has informed viewers that she "would make history as the first LGBTQ Latina in Congress."
• WA Commissioner of Public Lands (58-38 Biden): While Evergreen State Republicans don't hold a single statewide office, the state's top two primary rules give them a chance to flip the commissioner of public lands office well before the November general election.
Two Republicans and five Democrats are campaigning to replace Democrat Hilary Franz as the head of a post that, among other things, runs the state's Department of Natural Resources and handles Washington's wildfire-fighting efforts. The most prominent candidate in the race is former GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who lost renomination in 2022 after voting to impeach Donald Trump. The other Republican is Sue Kuehl Pederson, who lost to Franz 57-43 in 2020.
A late July poll for the Northwest Progressive Institute showed Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson respectively at 18% and 12% in a race where no Democrat has emerged as the party's front-runner. King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove was a distant third, with 6%, compared with 5% each for state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege and Redmond City Councilmember Jeralee Anderson. Two DNR officials, Patrick DePoe and Allen Lebovitz, clocked in with 4% and 3%.
Democrats are hoping that one candidate can surge ahead and stop Republicans from winning this post by default. If they fail, though, there is talk of progressives waging a write-in campaign to stop the general election from being only a choice between Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson, though state law would bar any of the five current candidates from filling that role.