Politico Playbook is a little late to the game on something we've been discussing for months here at Daily Kos: Donald Trump's political handiwork in the midterms could help sink GOP chances of regaining control of Congress.
As Playbook notes, the Republican Party outperformed in House races in 2020 due to Trump's heavy draw among the MAGA faithful in rural areas. "But he’s deadly for the GOP in the decisive suburbs at the heart of 2022 politics," Playbook writes.
Yep. A 2020 post-election analysis by the Brookings Institute found that "large suburban areas in 2020 registered a net Democratic advantage for the first time since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008." That shift is particularly significant because more voters exist in the suburbs than in urban, small metro, and rural areas combined, according to Brookings. The trend also played an outsized role in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—two of which have critical U.S. Senate races where Democrats could potentially notch pick-ups.
The problem Trump poses for the GOP is twofold. First, candidates battling for his endorsement could potentially move so far to the right that they alienate suburban voters in a general election. That is particularly true for several Senate races in battleground states. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump's first endorsement already flamed out and now the seven remaining GOP candidates are all jockeying for position with the guy who ultimately cost Republicans the House, the Senate, and the White House. The same is true for the nine Republicans seeking the party's gubernatorial nomination in the Keystone State.
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But Trump's other downside is the extent to which all his baggage keeps making headlines, reminding swing voters of the Trump-drama factor that contributed to tanking his 2020 reelection bid.
This week alone, Trump nearly edged out the Ukraine crisis as a top story through a gusher of headlines about Ginni Thomas' efforts to urge him to steal the election; a vote to hold two of Trump’s former White House aides in criminal contempt for failing to cooperate with the Jan. 6 investigation; the seven hours of Trump's phone calls on Jan. 6 that went missing from White House records; and a federal judge's conclusion that Trump "likely" committed crimes while trying to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump poses some potential upsides for the GOP in November in terms of potentially driving turnout among the MAGA base. But, yes, his outsized presence in key races also holds big potential downsides in an election cycle that should favor Republicans based on historical trends alone.
As Playbook notes, the Republican Party outperformed in House races in 2020 due to Trump's heavy draw among the MAGA faithful in rural areas. "But he’s deadly for the GOP in the decisive suburbs at the heart of 2022 politics," Playbook writes.
Yep. A 2020 post-election analysis by the Brookings Institute found that "large suburban areas in 2020 registered a net Democratic advantage for the first time since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008." That shift is particularly significant because more voters exist in the suburbs than in urban, small metro, and rural areas combined, according to Brookings. The trend also played an outsized role in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—two of which have critical U.S. Senate races where Democrats could potentially notch pick-ups.
The problem Trump poses for the GOP is twofold. First, candidates battling for his endorsement could potentially move so far to the right that they alienate suburban voters in a general election. That is particularly true for several Senate races in battleground states. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump's first endorsement already flamed out and now the seven remaining GOP candidates are all jockeying for position with the guy who ultimately cost Republicans the House, the Senate, and the White House. The same is true for the nine Republicans seeking the party's gubernatorial nomination in the Keystone State.
Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos' The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld
Embedded Content
But Trump's other downside is the extent to which all his baggage keeps making headlines, reminding swing voters of the Trump-drama factor that contributed to tanking his 2020 reelection bid.
This week alone, Trump nearly edged out the Ukraine crisis as a top story through a gusher of headlines about Ginni Thomas' efforts to urge him to steal the election; a vote to hold two of Trump’s former White House aides in criminal contempt for failing to cooperate with the Jan. 6 investigation; the seven hours of Trump's phone calls on Jan. 6 that went missing from White House records; and a federal judge's conclusion that Trump "likely" committed crimes while trying to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump poses some potential upsides for the GOP in November in terms of potentially driving turnout among the MAGA base. But, yes, his outsized presence in key races also holds big potential downsides in an election cycle that should favor Republicans based on historical trends alone.