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Senate Democrats release top-line elements of $3.5 trillion budget deal

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A few details emerged from the Senate Budget Committee's proposed $3.5 trillion budget resolution, following a Senate Democrats caucus lunch Wednesday with President Joe Biden. This $3.5 trillion is in addition to the nearly $600 billion being discussed in the bipartisan infrastructure agreement, which has not yet been released in detail. The good and very big news coming out of it: immigration reform with a path to citizenship for Dreamers and workers with temporary protected status is likely to be included.

According to a senior Senate aide, there will be "three main buckets" that will help offset the costs: healthcare savings, tax code reforms, and long term economic growth. Until there's legislative language and Congressional Budget Office scores and all that stuff, exact number are unknown. The package will include an extension of the Child Tax Credit expansion enacted in the American Rescue Plan (ARP)—$3,600/year for kids under 6 and $3,000/year for kids over 6. The first monthly payments from the ARP program are going out this week. In addition to the tax credit expansion, the proposed budget resolution will also extend the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Child and Dependent Care Tax Credits included in ARP. How long those extensions will last is to be determined, depending on the CBO score and what the committee can get passed.

According to the staff source, the proposed resolution "meets the President's climate change goals of 80% clean electricity and 50% economy-wide carbon emissions by 2030, while advancing environmental justice and American manufacturing." It would fund: a clean energy standard; clean energy and vehicle tax incentives; Civilian Climate Corps; climate smart agriculture; wildfire prevention and forestry; federal procurement of clean technologies; weatherization and electrification of buildings; and a clean energy accelerator. In addition, the resolution will propose new methane reduction and polluter import fees to increase emissions reductions.

On the human infrastructure side, it "would support each major program in the American Families Plan. The framework includes funding for: universal pre-K for 3 and 4-year old children; high quality and affordable child care; community college, HBCUs and MSIs, and Pell Grants; paid Family and Medical Leave; nutrition assistance; and affordable housing.” Again, these are all included in the agreed upon proposal from the budget committee, but there just aren't more details and, again, the "duration of each program’s enactment will be determined based on scoring and Committee input."

In addition to the "human infrastructure" elements above, it would also "deliver on five major new health and home care programs": add a new dental, vision, and hearing benefit to Medicare; expand home and community-based services; extend the Affordable Care Act expansion from the ARP to enhance premium subsidies; close the Medicaid gap in the states that refused to expand; and lower patient costs for prescription drugs. There are a number of proposals floating around for some of these elements, so which is going to be adopted is up in the air right now, and yes, the "duration of each program’s enactment will be determined based on scoring and Committee input." There's more on small business assistance and supply chain funding and funding for innovation and research and development that as of yet is undefined, but intended to "help workers and communities across the country recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and reverse trends of economic inequality." As far as new taxes go, corporate, international, and high-income individual taxes are all on the table, as is expanded tax enforcement by a strengthened IRS. It would prohibit increases on households earning less than $400,000 annually, family farms, and small business.

Sen. Joe Manchin, somewhat shockingly, says "I'm fine" about the immigration stuff being included. Where he's being more of a problem is on the climate change provisions, which he finds "very, very disturbing," according to CNN's Manu Raju. "I'm finding out there's a lot of language in places they're eliminating fossils, which is very, very disturbing, because if you're sticking your head in the sand, and saying that fossil has to be eliminated in America, and they want to get rid of it, and thinking that’s gonna clean up the global climate, it won't clean it up all." Manchin needs a serious education on climate change from his colleagues, and fast. "If anything, it would be worse," Manchin told Raju, who didn't press him on how it could possibly make the global climate worse.

The parameters of all this are up for alteration, since it does have to get 50 Democratic senators behind it and at least one of them apparently doesn't believe in climate change. Something along the lines of a "coal miner kickback" might be needed in order to get Manchin on board.
 
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