The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released its latest findings this month as part of its multi-year Storage Futures Study. The 45-page report, NREL’s sixth in this series, is filled with surprisingly good news. According to the agency’s modeling of high storage scenarios, solar could meet the country’s energy needs by 2050. The NREL modeled five different scenarios, ranging from a reference scenario that “follows all reference assumptions for cost and technology evolution through 2050” to a Zero Carbon scenario that heavily relies on storage but also shows the U.S. energy grid emitting no carbon whatsoever by 2050, with emissions slashed 95% by 2035. The Zero Carbon scenario proved surprisingly robust compared with other scenarios, such as a future in which natural gas costs are high but battery costs are low.
The Zero Carbon scenario proposes a world in which gas-fired generation is eliminated and daily storage instead does the job of providing ‘round-the-clock power generation, factoring in storage options that exceed the four-hour capacity of the most commonly used storage technologies from today, such as eight-hour and 10-hour batteries. A prior report put forth the estimate that storage could increase fivefold by 2050 to 125 GW or more. The latest study from NREL puts that number even higher at between 213 GW to 932 GW, depending on the scenario. The U.S. certainly appears to be heading in the right direction when it comes to storage. According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. could have 10 times its 2019 amount of 1,650 MW of battery storage installed by 2024, putting the capacity at 16.5 GW.
"Essentially, the storage technology plays a key role during peak demand when the power system needs energy and capacity the most," Jennie Jorgenson, NREL researcher and lead author of the study, told Utility Dive. "We find this consistently across all scenarios and years through 2050."
In terms of regeneration, solar storage would be replenished during peak times such as the middle of the day when there is over-generation. Wind storage is a little bit more tricky, given the fact that over-generation can sometimes occur for days at a time, but once storage hits capacity, there’s essentially nowhere else to put the excess energy, plus the energy that is in storage cannot be discharged until over-generation concludes. This negatively impacts daily capacity used, and thus makes a greater case for innovations in wind battery storage.
Researchers at Stanford found that curtailing wind power results in fewer energy losses but relying on batteries that must wait until over-generation is over to discharge proves even more wasteful.
Instead, the Stanford scientists point to using pumped hydroelectric stations for storage—the most commonly used system in the present day that accounts for nearly all of the 23 GW of energy storage the U.S. boasted in 2021. Pumped hydro stations act as giant batteries by allowing reservoirs at different elevations to discharge power by moving downward and through a turbine or recharge by being pumped back up to the higher reservoir. It could play a key role in powering the country alongside long-duration batteries, which the NREL believes will become more cost-competitive going forward and prove to be a solid long-term investment given their high capacity.
From an environmental standpoint, the NREL is also interested in how a net-zero future could impact the health of communities no longer suffering from the many negative effects of major polluters in the energy sector.
Build Back Better provides myriad incentives for the U.S. to reach a Zero Carbon future, including supporting domestic efforts to manufacture the solar and wind infrastructure to reach that goal. Call on Congress to pass the Build Back Better Act for the sake of our planet and the country’s future.
And do tell me about your solar experiences. Do y’all have solar at home? If you do, how do you like it? If you don’t, is it something you’re considering?
The Zero Carbon scenario proposes a world in which gas-fired generation is eliminated and daily storage instead does the job of providing ‘round-the-clock power generation, factoring in storage options that exceed the four-hour capacity of the most commonly used storage technologies from today, such as eight-hour and 10-hour batteries. A prior report put forth the estimate that storage could increase fivefold by 2050 to 125 GW or more. The latest study from NREL puts that number even higher at between 213 GW to 932 GW, depending on the scenario. The U.S. certainly appears to be heading in the right direction when it comes to storage. According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. could have 10 times its 2019 amount of 1,650 MW of battery storage installed by 2024, putting the capacity at 16.5 GW.
"Essentially, the storage technology plays a key role during peak demand when the power system needs energy and capacity the most," Jennie Jorgenson, NREL researcher and lead author of the study, told Utility Dive. "We find this consistently across all scenarios and years through 2050."
In terms of regeneration, solar storage would be replenished during peak times such as the middle of the day when there is over-generation. Wind storage is a little bit more tricky, given the fact that over-generation can sometimes occur for days at a time, but once storage hits capacity, there’s essentially nowhere else to put the excess energy, plus the energy that is in storage cannot be discharged until over-generation concludes. This negatively impacts daily capacity used, and thus makes a greater case for innovations in wind battery storage.
Researchers at Stanford found that curtailing wind power results in fewer energy losses but relying on batteries that must wait until over-generation is over to discharge proves even more wasteful.
Instead, the Stanford scientists point to using pumped hydroelectric stations for storage—the most commonly used system in the present day that accounts for nearly all of the 23 GW of energy storage the U.S. boasted in 2021. Pumped hydro stations act as giant batteries by allowing reservoirs at different elevations to discharge power by moving downward and through a turbine or recharge by being pumped back up to the higher reservoir. It could play a key role in powering the country alongside long-duration batteries, which the NREL believes will become more cost-competitive going forward and prove to be a solid long-term investment given their high capacity.
From an environmental standpoint, the NREL is also interested in how a net-zero future could impact the health of communities no longer suffering from the many negative effects of major polluters in the energy sector.
Build Back Better provides myriad incentives for the U.S. to reach a Zero Carbon future, including supporting domestic efforts to manufacture the solar and wind infrastructure to reach that goal. Call on Congress to pass the Build Back Better Act for the sake of our planet and the country’s future.
And do tell me about your solar experiences. Do y’all have solar at home? If you do, how do you like it? If you don’t, is it something you’re considering?