The first publicly released polling out of Kansas suggests that the campaign to protect abortion rights in that state’s constitution could prevail in next month’s election. The polling, conducted by co/efficient and reported first by FiveThirtyEight, finds that 47% of likely voters would vote for the amendment and end abortion protections, while 43% would vote against it.
The election is Aug. 2, with the state’s regular statewide primary. The referendum needs a simple majority to pass. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight are calling this vote “an early bellwether for how Americans are thinking about abortion in the lead-up to the midterms,” and they are not wrong. The fact that the referendum is on the same ballot as the traditionally low-turnout primary is setting up a direct test for just how motivating the U.S. Supreme Court decision ending federal abortion protections is for pro-choice voters.
The Kansas polling they report shows that the amendment is highly motivating, with 84% saying it has made them more likely to vote. But way more Democrats—94%—say the amendment has “increased the importance of voting in this upcoming election,” compared with 78% of Republicans. That’s the kind of enthusiasm Democrats need from now until November, and if we can pull this off in Kansas—an island of reproductive rights in a sea of forced birth states—it will be good news for November.
Please donate $3 now to activists in Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan who are fighting to protect abortion rights at the ballot box.
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Ashley All, a spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, told FiveThirtyEight that the Supreme Court decision didn’t just motivate voters. Her group is one of the leading organizations opposing the amendment. “The decision was a wakeup call for a lot of moderate Kansans who weren’t engaged on this issue because they thought there was federal protection for abortion care,” All said, adding that since the Supreme Court decision came down, they’ve been signing up more than 500 volunteers every week and have made more than 140,000 phone calls.
It’s also motivated donors. In the first campaign finance reporting this week, the “no” campaign outraised the forced birther group by nearly $2 million. They’ve used the funding advantage well, with two markedly different ad strategies in the states’ two media markets.
In the heavily red Wichita market, the “no” campaign has run ads framing the ballot measure as “a strict government mandate designed to interfere with private medical decisions,” and shows images to remind voters of pandemic face mask requirements and the cancellation of in-person religious services. In the Kansas City market, where Biden won 53-45 in 2020, their ads feature a woman talking about the abortion she had to have to save her life so her 3-year-old son wouldn’t have to grow up without her and her husband wouldn’t be widowed. She tells voters that the ballot measure “could ban any abortion with no exceptions, even in cases like mine.”
Winning in Kansas would also be a boost to campaigns in Kentucky and Michigan. Abortion rights are on the line in Kentucky in a similar amendment to what Kansans will be voting on next month. In Michigan, activists are putting up a measure to amend the state constitution to include an affirmative right to an abortion. A 1931 state law banning abortion has been blocked for the moment by the courts, but it could come back into effect and activists want to stop that from happening.
So Kansas could have a major positive ripple effect throughout the country. A win there would show Democrats everywhere that fighting for abortion rights is a winning battle, that they’ve got to take that message through the November campaign and fulfill the promises they’ve made to an electorate that massively supports abortion rights.
Abortion rights, gun safety, and the our planet are all at stake in this election. We must persuade Democratic voters to turn out in November. Click here to volunteer with Vote Forward and write personalized letters to targeted voters on your own schedule from the comfort of your own home, without ever having to talk to anyone.
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The election is Aug. 2, with the state’s regular statewide primary. The referendum needs a simple majority to pass. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight are calling this vote “an early bellwether for how Americans are thinking about abortion in the lead-up to the midterms,” and they are not wrong. The fact that the referendum is on the same ballot as the traditionally low-turnout primary is setting up a direct test for just how motivating the U.S. Supreme Court decision ending federal abortion protections is for pro-choice voters.
The Kansas polling they report shows that the amendment is highly motivating, with 84% saying it has made them more likely to vote. But way more Democrats—94%—say the amendment has “increased the importance of voting in this upcoming election,” compared with 78% of Republicans. That’s the kind of enthusiasm Democrats need from now until November, and if we can pull this off in Kansas—an island of reproductive rights in a sea of forced birth states—it will be good news for November.
Please donate $3 now to activists in Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan who are fighting to protect abortion rights at the ballot box.
Campaign Action
Ashley All, a spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, told FiveThirtyEight that the Supreme Court decision didn’t just motivate voters. Her group is one of the leading organizations opposing the amendment. “The decision was a wakeup call for a lot of moderate Kansans who weren’t engaged on this issue because they thought there was federal protection for abortion care,” All said, adding that since the Supreme Court decision came down, they’ve been signing up more than 500 volunteers every week and have made more than 140,000 phone calls.
It’s also motivated donors. In the first campaign finance reporting this week, the “no” campaign outraised the forced birther group by nearly $2 million. They’ve used the funding advantage well, with two markedly different ad strategies in the states’ two media markets.
In the heavily red Wichita market, the “no” campaign has run ads framing the ballot measure as “a strict government mandate designed to interfere with private medical decisions,” and shows images to remind voters of pandemic face mask requirements and the cancellation of in-person religious services. In the Kansas City market, where Biden won 53-45 in 2020, their ads feature a woman talking about the abortion she had to have to save her life so her 3-year-old son wouldn’t have to grow up without her and her husband wouldn’t be widowed. She tells voters that the ballot measure “could ban any abortion with no exceptions, even in cases like mine.”
Winning in Kansas would also be a boost to campaigns in Kentucky and Michigan. Abortion rights are on the line in Kentucky in a similar amendment to what Kansans will be voting on next month. In Michigan, activists are putting up a measure to amend the state constitution to include an affirmative right to an abortion. A 1931 state law banning abortion has been blocked for the moment by the courts, but it could come back into effect and activists want to stop that from happening.
So Kansas could have a major positive ripple effect throughout the country. A win there would show Democrats everywhere that fighting for abortion rights is a winning battle, that they’ve got to take that message through the November campaign and fulfill the promises they’ve made to an electorate that massively supports abortion rights.
Abortion rights, gun safety, and the our planet are all at stake in this election. We must persuade Democratic voters to turn out in November. Click here to volunteer with Vote Forward and write personalized letters to targeted voters on your own schedule from the comfort of your own home, without ever having to talk to anyone.
RELATED STORIES:
Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan are all fighting to protect abortion rights at the ballot box
Polling on abortion ban enforcement should terrify Republicans
NBC poll finds double-digit uptick in Democratic enthusiasm following Supreme Court leak on Roe