As an erudite consumer of this missive, you’ve likely heard about the Big Sexy state legislative news for the week, which is that Texas state House Democrats decided to derail that bogus special session I wrote about in this space last week.
Texas House Dems were able to bring that session—during which GOP Gov. Greg Abbott wants to pass a sweeping voter suppression bill, fight alleged social media “censorship” of Texans, combat the newly hatched right-wing bogeyman of teaching of critical race theory in schools, and prohibit transgender kids from competing on school sports teams that correspond with their gender identity—to an abrupt halt by leaving because, without at least 16 of those Democrats (the chamber is 84 R/66 D), the House doesn’t have a quorum.
By the by, for those of you living normal lives and not obsessed with legislative machinations, a quorum is the minimum number of members required for a governing body to conduct official business.
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So! On Monday, instead of convening in the state capitol, 57 of those Democrats just … left.
Which … well, symbolism is important, actually!
Take those Texas House Democrats.
Stepping away from your job as an elected official is a big deal, no matter what the circumstance.
Sometimes it results in real concessions from the other side!
Just ask the Oregon Senate GOP, which staged walkouts in 2019 and 2020.
So, ultimately, Oregon Republicans’ stunt was merely symbolic.
But really, what did they have to lose?
… this isn’t rhetorical. The answer is: Nothing.
But!
My point is that hand-wringing about Texas Dems’ “endgame” is a waste of time and energy.
Maybe they wait out the rest of the 30-day special session and go home.
Maybe then Abbott calls another special session, and they do it all over again.
But … it doesn’t matter.
Texas Democrats should pull as many of these stunts as they have time, energy, and resources to.
Because next year—as bad as stuff is now, things are going to get worse.
Why?
Redistricting.
No Democrat is safe.
No Democrat was safe before the Texas walkouts, and even if they walk out a dozen more times between now and the 2022 elections, it won’t matter.
Texas Republicans were always going to draw themselves as many safe legislative districts as possible, and they were always going to cram Democrats into as few legislative districts as possible.
In fact, the real question here is:
Why aren’t more Democrats in GOP-controlled legislatures taking more drastic measures to thwart Republicans?
If you’ve been reading me for, say, at least eight months or so, you’re likely aware that the 2020 elections were shit for down-ballot Democrats.
Speaking of redistricting, this seems like a great time to update you on some amazing data my Daily Kos Elections colleagues have crunched and spit out in a user-friendly (if wonky) format.
These are all fun and sexy, but Michigan is super on my mind right now.
But wait! you may be thinking. Can’t current Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer just veto a measure specifically and obviously intended to usurp her authority?
In this case, no.
And if that seems undemocratic to you, wait until you hear about the partisan makeup of the chambers approving this repeal (it’s only passed the Senate so far, but it’s definitely going to pass the House next week).
Anyway, can’t close out the week without an Arizona shitshow update, so here we go:
super cool and super normal
Even as this Arizona situation drags on and gets more absurd and distressing, it’s important to remember that this whole endeavor is
Welp! That’s a wrap. Thanks for tuning in!
Be well, and take care of yourself.
Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
We need you.
Texas House Dems were able to bring that session—during which GOP Gov. Greg Abbott wants to pass a sweeping voter suppression bill, fight alleged social media “censorship” of Texans, combat the newly hatched right-wing bogeyman of teaching of critical race theory in schools, and prohibit transgender kids from competing on school sports teams that correspond with their gender identity—to an abrupt halt by leaving because, without at least 16 of those Democrats (the chamber is 84 R/66 D), the House doesn’t have a quorum.
By the by, for those of you living normal lives and not obsessed with legislative machinations, a quorum is the minimum number of members required for a governing body to conduct official business.
Campaign Action
- In the Texas legislature, two-thirds of the elected members constitute a quorum in each chamber.
- So, for Texas lawmakers to do lawmaking, 100 members of the 150-seat House must be present, and 21 members of the 31-seat Senate must be present.
So! On Monday, instead of convening in the state capitol, 57 of those Democrats just … left.
- Most of them came to D.C., which is both politically smart and prevented them from being arrested and/or forcibly returned to the House floor by a very surly Gov. Abbott.
- Texas Democrats are using their resistance to new voter suppression legislation in their state to
- Raise their profiles via media and event appearances
- Raise money
- Raise awareness of federal Democrats’ push to pass anti-voter suppression legislation at the national level.
- Texas Democrats are using their resistance to new voter suppression legislation in their state to
- Meanwhile, Texas Senate (18 R/13 D) met on Tuesday to pass Republicans’ elections-undermining bill, but just barely!
- The measure passed on a party-line vote of 18 to four, since nine Democratic senators had left Austin to join the House Democrats in D.C.
- If two more had beat feet, the Senate wouldn’t have a quorum, either.
- But as long as enough House Democrats stay away, it doesn’t matter; with the state House totally unable to take up bills from the Senate, anything passed in the upper chamber is symbolic.
- The measure passed on a party-line vote of 18 to four, since nine Democratic senators had left Austin to join the House Democrats in D.C.
Which … well, symbolism is important, actually!
Take those Texas House Democrats.
Stepping away from your job as an elected official is a big deal, no matter what the circumstance.
Sometimes it results in real concessions from the other side!
Just ask the Oregon Senate GOP, which staged walkouts in 2019 and 2020.
- Both of those quorum-denying stunts resulted in Republicans getting what they wanted: two separate environmental bills designed to slow climate change died, one in each session.
- The GOP didn’t quite get its way in the end, though.
- After the 2020 session concluded with no meaningful action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown signed an executive order that accomplished most of what the failed legislation would have.
- The GOP didn’t quite get its way in the end, though.
So, ultimately, Oregon Republicans’ stunt was merely symbolic.
But really, what did they have to lose?
… this isn’t rhetorical. The answer is: Nothing.
- Because not only did not a single one of the Oregon Senate Republicans who walked out lose reelection, but the GOP actually picked up a seat in the chamber the subsequent November.
- They still can’t really block anything without a full-scale walkout, though—the Oregon Senate is 18 D/12 R.
But!
My point is that hand-wringing about Texas Dems’ “endgame” is a waste of time and energy.
Maybe they wait out the rest of the 30-day special session and go home.
Maybe then Abbott calls another special session, and they do it all over again.
- Prediction: Abbott calls a special session in December so Democrats have to be away from their families during the holidays if they bounce again + normal Americans aren’t paying as much attention to politics because of those holidays, so the House ends up with the quorum needed to do stuff, and an awful voter suppression bill ultimately passes in plenty of time for midterms.
But … it doesn’t matter.
Texas Democrats should pull as many of these stunts as they have time, energy, and resources to.
Because next year—as bad as stuff is now, things are going to get worse.
Why?
Redistricting.
- Before the next round of congressional and (most) state legislative elections, new district maps are going to be drawn and implemented across the country.
- And in the majority of states where lawmakers hold those map-drawing pens, Republicans are in control of the process (including Texas).
- Which means, no matter what Texas Democrats do, their GOP colleagues are going to gerrymander the shit out of them.
- And in the majority of states where lawmakers hold those map-drawing pens, Republicans are in control of the process (including Texas).
No Democrat is safe.
No Democrat was safe before the Texas walkouts, and even if they walk out a dozen more times between now and the 2022 elections, it won’t matter.
Texas Republicans were always going to draw themselves as many safe legislative districts as possible, and they were always going to cram Democrats into as few legislative districts as possible.
In fact, the real question here is:
Why aren’t more Democrats in GOP-controlled legislatures taking more drastic measures to thwart Republicans?
If you’ve been reading me for, say, at least eight months or so, you’re likely aware that the 2020 elections were shit for down-ballot Democrats.
- Instead of flipping a handful of legislatures—as many elections observers (including myself) expected—Democrats actually LOST two chambers (New Hampshire’s House and Senate, giving Republicans trifecta control of state government there).
- … which sucked plenty on its own but spelled DOOM for legislative and congressional Democrats for the coming decade.
- Right now, Democrats have majorities in just 38 legislative chambers (yes, I’m including the Alaska House there), while Republicans control 60 (Nebraska is unicameral and ostensibly nonpartisan—thus ostensibly nonexistent to me).
- And after Republicans get to re-gerrymander their own states, those numbers are likely to become even more lopsided.
- Because even if GOP gerrymandering doesn’t alter which party controls a given legislative chamber, it’s damn sure going to put that chamber even further out of reach for Democrats to flip through 2030.
Speaking of redistricting, this seems like a great time to update you on some amazing data my Daily Kos Elections colleagues have crunched and spit out in a user-friendly (if wonky) format.
- After each presidential election, we calculate states’ statewide presidential results by congressional (yeah that’s cool but plenty of other folks’ jam) and state legislative district (extremely my jam).
- Since we won’t have new districts of either sort for a while yet, these results are calculated using existing districts, which is super helpful for showing how thoroughly gerrymandered many of these districts already are, even after a full decade of population and partisan shifts in localities across the country.
- So far, we have this data from
These are all fun and sexy, but Michigan is super on my mind right now.
- You see, this week the GOP-controlled state Senate voted to repeal a state law that gives the governor the authority to, say, issue public health orders to save lives in the event of a deadly pandemic (or other emergency).
- Michigan’s emergency powers law was actually already invalidated last year by the state Supreme Court.
- But Republicans evidently understand that, when Democrats run statewide and aren’t forced to compete in gerrymandered districts specifically designed to elect GOP majorities, they’re relatively successful in this swing state.
- So, fearful of future Democratic governors and courts that may rule another way, Michigan Republicans have opted to just ditch the law altogether.
But wait! you may be thinking. Can’t current Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer just veto a measure specifically and obviously intended to usurp her authority?
In this case, no.
- Michigan has a fun little constitutional quirk that allows residents to present measures to the legislature via petition drives.
- The drive behind this proposal allegedly engaged in some shady practices as it collected over 460,000 signatures in support of repealing the law.
- Also, the petition drive’s largest source of funding was a nonprofit tied to GOP Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey—a nonprofit that doesn’t have to disclose its donors, to boot (dark money, shady tactics … this situation really has it all).
- The 460,000 voters who signed the petition are about 11% of the 4.2 million voters who participated in the 2018 gubernatorial election (which Whitmer won by almost 2.3 million votes).
And if that seems undemocratic to you, wait until you hear about the partisan makeup of the chambers approving this repeal (it’s only passed the Senate so far, but it’s definitely going to pass the House next week).
- Despite the fact that Joe Biden beat out Donald Trump 51-48 statewide last year, Trump still carried 60 of the 100 seats in the Michigan House and 21 of 38 in the state Senate.
- Democrats had hoped to net the four seats they needed to take control for the first time since 2010, but despite once again winning more votes than GOP candidates—as they have in almost every election over the last decade—they were unable to so much as dent the GOP’s 58-52 majority.
- But the news in Michigan isn’t all bad—Democrats may have an opening to flip the legislature next year.
- That’s because while they were electing a Democrat as their governor in 2018, voters statewide approved the creation of an independent redistricting commission to draw new maps this decade (and cut the GOP-controlled legislature out of the process).
- Republicans are by no means guaranteed to lose control in this competitive state, but for the first time in a long time, Democrats may not have to compete on a super gerrymandered playing field.
- That’s because while they were electing a Democrat as their governor in 2018, voters statewide approved the creation of an independent redistricting commission to draw new maps this decade (and cut the GOP-controlled legislature out of the process).
Anyway, can’t close out the week without an Arizona shitshow update, so here we go:
- Last week in this space, I wrote about an open records lawsuit seeking to obtain documents from Cyber Ninja and the Senate created by the audit.
- The statute at issue in this lawsuit is the Arizona Public Records Law, a lovely bit of state code that requires government officials to maintain records "necessary or appropriate to maintain an accurate knowledge of their official activities, and of any of their activities which are supported by monies from this state."
- The state Senate pushed back on these disclosures at a hearing last week, claiming that “private corporations that serve as vendors to the state government are not 'public bodies' within the meaning of (Arizona law)," which would mean any documents under the “control” of Cyber Ninjas are exempt.
- Of course, this would essentially create a loophole in the state’s public records statute big enough to drive several trucks through.
- Allowing the Arizona Senate to withhold these documents because Cyber Ninjas possesses them would establish a method by which public access to such records could be easily circumvented by anyone in government seeking to conceal public business from public scrutiny.
- Of course, this would essentially create a loophole in the state’s public records statute big enough to drive several trucks through.
- Apparently the court agrees.
- On Thursday, the state court judge hearing the case rejected the Senate’s self-interested interpretation of the public records statute and ordered documents involved in this “audit” be made public, including who’s financing it (the $150,000 the chamber agreed to pay Cyber Ninjas “appears to be far short of paying the full cost,” the judge wrote).
- The Arizona Senate is likely to appeal, so this isn’t done yet.
- On Thursday, the state court judge hearing the case rejected the Senate’s self-interested interpretation of the public records statute and ordered documents involved in this “audit” be made public, including who’s financing it (the $150,000 the chamber agreed to pay Cyber Ninjas “appears to be far short of paying the full cost,” the judge wrote).
- The state Senate pushed back on these disclosures at a hearing last week, claiming that “private corporations that serve as vendors to the state government are not 'public bodies' within the meaning of (Arizona law)," which would mean any documents under the “control” of Cyber Ninjas are exempt.
- Meanwhile! The U.S. House Oversight Committee is launching its own investigation into this debacle.
- The statute at issue in this lawsuit is the Arizona Public Records Law, a lovely bit of state code that requires government officials to maintain records "necessary or appropriate to maintain an accurate knowledge of their official activities, and of any of their activities which are supported by monies from this state."
- … and not a moment too soon, as the GOP-controlled state Senate’s top contractor on the “audit” is pushing lawmakers to move forward with a previously discarded plan to send canvassers to some voters’ doors to “inquire” about their participation in the 2020 election.
- Just because it's after the fact doesn’t mean this isn’t voter intimidation.
- … which it is! If some state official were to suddenly show up at your home to demand details about how you voted in the last election, wouldn’t you think twice about taking the trouble to vote in the next one?
- Also, Cyber Ninjas CEO has so far “declined to say” how households would be selected for this “canvassing,” leaving wide open the possibility of Republicans targeting voters of color in this farce.
- Just because it's after the fact doesn’t mean this isn’t voter intimidation.
- Oh, and because things aren’t bizarre enough at this point, GOP state Sen. Wendy Rogers took to Twitter this week to demand that Arizona “decertify the election” and assert that a redo of the state’s Biden-Trump contest should be held.
super cool and super normal
Even as this Arizona situation drags on and gets more absurd and distressing, it’s important to remember that this whole endeavor is
- An attempt to undermine public faith in a safe, secure, well-run election and
- An ongoing threat to the democratic process—not just in Arizona, but all across the country.
Welp! That’s a wrap. Thanks for tuning in!
Be well, and take care of yourself.
Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
We need you.