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Brexit may have begun but it is not over, indeed it may never be finished.

Trump quitting the GOP would have annihilated the party and Republicans knew it

Brexiter

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A new book by ABC News' Jonathan Karl includes an anecdote in which, hours before Donald Trump left office in January, he threatened to quit the Republican Party.

"I'm done," Trump told RNC chair Ronna McDaniel. "I'm starting my own party."

"You cannot do that," McDaniel pleaded with Trump. "If you do, we will lose forever."

“Exactly. You lose forever without me,” Trump responded. “I don’t care.”

This isn't the first time we've seen reporting that Trump threatened to leave the party and start a so-called "Patriot Party."

Earlier this year, The Washington Post reported that Trump had been telling associates he was holding the prospect of a third party over the heads of GOP lawmakers so they wouldn't vote to convict him in the February impeachment trial.

Trump later dismissed the third-party threat as "fake news."

Where the truth lies with anything involving Trump is always murky, but whether or not Trump actually articulated such a threat is kind of beside the point. In fact, ever since the closing of a very brief window following Jan. 6, GOP leaders have been acting like hostages in a hostage situation, as the Post's Aaron Blake points out.

That's not to say that plenty of congressional Republicans and leaders at the state and local levels have been forced into anything. Many of them have been absolutely relishing living the MAGA dream.

But for GOP congressional leaders like Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, the third-party threat is among the most plausible reasons for their quick evolution from tepid criticism of Trump to absolute fealty.

For McCarthy, that transformation included a blip on Jan. 13 in which he admitted Trump "bears responsibility" for the Capitol attack to suddenly jetting down to Mar-a-Lago on Jan. 28 for a makeup photo.

McConnell’s evolution included declaring on Jan. 13 "there’s no question" that Trump was "practically and morally responsible" for provoking the Capitol attack, and then failing to corral the votes in his caucus to convict Trump and permanently kill his ongoing presidential aspirations. Ultimately, McConnell even found his own way to a "no" vote on conviction through the intellectual loophole of claiming it was improper to convict a president who wasn't still in office. Of course, McConnell also refused to take up the proceeding while he was still majority leader, thereby stalling the trial until after Trump left office.

For congressional Republicans, the specter of Trump quitting the GOP and taking a healthy slice of the base with him would have sent shivers down their spine. Sure, they could rebuild, but it would take at least several election cycles along with some inspired thinking. The notion of inspired thinking alone might have kept McCarthy up at night, likely even moreso than gifting the party to Trump. McCarthy doesn't care how he becomes speaker of the House or even whether he's just an ornamental mouthpiece for Trump—he wants the speakership at any price.

McConnell, on the other hand, wants real power and likes to be the master of his own design—he simply miscalculated and misplayed his hand. As McConnell said himself, he thought Trump was a "fading brand" and the energy of the party was moving back toward the establishment. McConnell seemed to believe he was finally in a position to enjoy the upside of Trump without the equal and opposite downward pull toward the gutter.

He was horribly mistaken. The GOP lawmaker who got it right was Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, one of 10 House Republicans who joined Democrats in voting to impeach Trump. Cheney made the opposite calculation of McConnell—Trump's election lies were a “continuing danger to our system” and risking her leadership post was worth making the point. Because as long as Trump remained a viable political force, he stood capable of bringing everyone down, including the republic.

On Jan. 6, Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois was holed up for hours in a secure location with McConnell and other Democratic leaders as they watched scenes of the siege play out on TV. McConnell "reacted with anger and revulsion" at what was transpiring, and Durbin wondered if it might be a "transformative moment," according to the Post.

Not so much. Now Durbin believes McConnell knows he missed his chance.

“Now he’s looking at Trump, not in the rearview mirror, but looking through the windshield and realizing he’s going to have to live with this man in the Republican Party for the foreseeable future,” Durbin told the Post's Michael Kranish.

Indeed, Trump so dominates the GOP now that he no longer has to threaten a third-party defection. Now Trump can simply threaten to tell his believers to stay home—as he did several weeks ago—and congressional Republicans shudder.

As the Kranish points out: "Mitch McConnell spent decades chasing power. Now he heeds Trump, who mocks him and wants him gone.”

Perhaps some Washington reporters are finally starting to catch on: Masterful McConnell isn't as masterful as they once imagined.
 
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