After months of meticulously avoiding any contact, photo ops, or visits with Donald Trump, Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin got yet another unwelcome intrusion into the final 24 hours of the race.
"The Fake News media," Trump said in a Monday morning statement, "are trying to create an impression that Glenn Youngkin and I are at odds and don't like each other.”
"Importantly, this is not true," Trump continued. "We get along very well together and strongly believe in many of the same policies. Especially when it comes to the important subject of education."
Trump said the media was trying to create a division among the two men in order to suppress his voters so that "my great and unprecedented Make America Great Again base will not show up to vote."
Then, in literally the next line of the statement, Trump suppressed his voters.
"Also, I am not a believer in the integrity of Virginia's elections," he said, "lots of bad things went on, and are going on."
But in an effort to undo a year's worth of damage he's done to the GOP's faith in elections, Trump added, "The way you beat it is to flood the system and get out and vote."
That's Trump trying to have his cake and eat it too. He gets to tell his base that the system is rigged against them and then get credited for urging them to turn out anyway in order to beat the rigged system.
That way, if Youngkin loses, the system was rigged. If he wins, Trump will say it's because MAGA voters turned out in huge numbers at his command.
It's worth noting that Trump's jumble of messages is an unmitigated PR blunder. "Send mixed signals!" said no communications professional ever.
The polling is incredibly tight in Virginia, with FiveThirtyEight's aggregate currently giving Youngkin a slight one-point edge. Based on the polling alone, this appears to be a very competitive race, with Youngkin getting a boost in the closing weeks. That said, in 2017, GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie also appeared to be gaining ground on Democratic candidate Ralph Northam in a close race that Northam ultimately won by a cushy 9-point margin.
That is to say, we can't trust the polls—particularly the horse-race polls. Ever since Trump's entrance on the national scene, polling has been wonky, sometimes fairly accurate, and other times a complete miss. National polling has typically been most off-kilter when Trump actually appeared on the ballot (2016, 2020) and most accurate when he wasn't on the ballot (2018).
However, polling in California's September recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom totally whiffed—this time in Democrats' favor. While the RealClearPolitics average predicted Newsom surviving the recall by a roughly 15-point margin, Newsom actually turned back the recall effort by a whopping 24 points, 62% - 38%—the exact same margin by which he won the 2018 gubernatorial race. But the recall polling average missing the mark by roughly 9 points is significant.
So pollsters still don't seem to have exactly cracked the code in the Trump era. They could just as easily be close in Virginia or wildly off.
Finally, the media has entirely bought into GOP talking points on the idea that this election will turn on voter anger over how race issues are being taught in schools and, more specifically, what Republicans have coined as "critical race theory."
As a counterpoint to that narrative, last week Pod Save America talked to a Democratic activist with an organization that is actually knocking doors in Virginia—Tram Nguyen, co-executive director of New Virginia Majority (who we also had on The Brief a month ago). The organization has knocked on over half a million doors and made roughly 780,000 phone calls, and Nguyen's message to the Pod was very similar to what she told us on The Brief in late September—critical race theory is nowhere to be found when they're knocking doors.
"It probably won't surprise you that the Number 1 issue that folks have been talking about is health care," Nguyen told Pod Save America, noting that the pandemic is still top of mind for voters.
"Parents care about the fact that their kids are back in school," she also said. "They're worried, right—what happens if they get that phone call from the teacher or the principal, saying, ‘There's been exposure, your child has to quarantine for 14 days’? How will they care for their child, will they be able to take time off work?”
Nguyen said that question, for instance, gives organizers a chance to talk about Virginia Democrats' plan to pass paid family and medical leave in the state next year.
Asked if she thought the race was as close as the polls show, Nguyen said, "There's a lot of noise—the other side is certainly louder. So it makes it feel like they have more urgency."
"But," she added, "when we're on the doors and we're actually talking to people—our folks are pretty excited."
We are about to find out whether Youngkin and Republicans really have more enthusiasm and a stronger message, or whether they just yell a heck of a lot louder.
Sign up to make get-out-the-vote calls in Virginia, from the privacy of your home. We will win if we get out the Democratic vote.
"The Fake News media," Trump said in a Monday morning statement, "are trying to create an impression that Glenn Youngkin and I are at odds and don't like each other.”
"Importantly, this is not true," Trump continued. "We get along very well together and strongly believe in many of the same policies. Especially when it comes to the important subject of education."
Trump said the media was trying to create a division among the two men in order to suppress his voters so that "my great and unprecedented Make America Great Again base will not show up to vote."
Then, in literally the next line of the statement, Trump suppressed his voters.
"Also, I am not a believer in the integrity of Virginia's elections," he said, "lots of bad things went on, and are going on."
But in an effort to undo a year's worth of damage he's done to the GOP's faith in elections, Trump added, "The way you beat it is to flood the system and get out and vote."
That's Trump trying to have his cake and eat it too. He gets to tell his base that the system is rigged against them and then get credited for urging them to turn out anyway in order to beat the rigged system.
That way, if Youngkin loses, the system was rigged. If he wins, Trump will say it's because MAGA voters turned out in huge numbers at his command.
It's worth noting that Trump's jumble of messages is an unmitigated PR blunder. "Send mixed signals!" said no communications professional ever.
The polling is incredibly tight in Virginia, with FiveThirtyEight's aggregate currently giving Youngkin a slight one-point edge. Based on the polling alone, this appears to be a very competitive race, with Youngkin getting a boost in the closing weeks. That said, in 2017, GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie also appeared to be gaining ground on Democratic candidate Ralph Northam in a close race that Northam ultimately won by a cushy 9-point margin.
That is to say, we can't trust the polls—particularly the horse-race polls. Ever since Trump's entrance on the national scene, polling has been wonky, sometimes fairly accurate, and other times a complete miss. National polling has typically been most off-kilter when Trump actually appeared on the ballot (2016, 2020) and most accurate when he wasn't on the ballot (2018).
However, polling in California's September recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom totally whiffed—this time in Democrats' favor. While the RealClearPolitics average predicted Newsom surviving the recall by a roughly 15-point margin, Newsom actually turned back the recall effort by a whopping 24 points, 62% - 38%—the exact same margin by which he won the 2018 gubernatorial race. But the recall polling average missing the mark by roughly 9 points is significant.
So pollsters still don't seem to have exactly cracked the code in the Trump era. They could just as easily be close in Virginia or wildly off.
Finally, the media has entirely bought into GOP talking points on the idea that this election will turn on voter anger over how race issues are being taught in schools and, more specifically, what Republicans have coined as "critical race theory."
As a counterpoint to that narrative, last week Pod Save America talked to a Democratic activist with an organization that is actually knocking doors in Virginia—Tram Nguyen, co-executive director of New Virginia Majority (who we also had on The Brief a month ago). The organization has knocked on over half a million doors and made roughly 780,000 phone calls, and Nguyen's message to the Pod was very similar to what she told us on The Brief in late September—critical race theory is nowhere to be found when they're knocking doors.
"It probably won't surprise you that the Number 1 issue that folks have been talking about is health care," Nguyen told Pod Save America, noting that the pandemic is still top of mind for voters.
"Parents care about the fact that their kids are back in school," she also said. "They're worried, right—what happens if they get that phone call from the teacher or the principal, saying, ‘There's been exposure, your child has to quarantine for 14 days’? How will they care for their child, will they be able to take time off work?”
Nguyen said that question, for instance, gives organizers a chance to talk about Virginia Democrats' plan to pass paid family and medical leave in the state next year.
Asked if she thought the race was as close as the polls show, Nguyen said, "There's a lot of noise—the other side is certainly louder. So it makes it feel like they have more urgency."
"But," she added, "when we're on the doors and we're actually talking to people—our folks are pretty excited."
We are about to find out whether Youngkin and Republicans really have more enthusiasm and a stronger message, or whether they just yell a heck of a lot louder.
Sign up to make get-out-the-vote calls in Virginia, from the privacy of your home. We will win if we get out the Democratic vote.