UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 8:58:43 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Here’s one very big sign that Russia has rapidly depleted its supply of tanks, including those that had been rusting in what passes for storage.
India has actually built about 1,000 copies of the T-90S under license from Russia. Maybe Russia could go to India and check on importing some of their own tanks.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 5:02:08 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
One thing I missed when reviewing the list of sites shelled by Russia this morning: Ukraine has apparently taken two locations in that remaining sliver of Kharkiv oblast that was under Russian occupation.
Kupyansk Area. Open in another tab for a larger look.
These are the towns of Tavilzhanka and Bohdanivske northeast of the river crossing at Dvorichna. It’s unclear if Ukraine is still pushing north at this time. This area is only about a dozen kilometers from the Russian border, and I don’t see any reports of fighting up there … but then, I didn’t see any reports before these flipped into the morning report. Russia may be moving forces out of this little remaining sliver of Kharkiv to other locations, or Ukraine may be giving it more of a push, or both.
There are reports that fighting continues in the area between Yahidne and Nova Tarasivka. This appears to be a dead end position in terms of pressing on to the east, however there is Russian artillery there which has been used to exert fire control over the P07 highway. So clearing that out is a good thing. And with Russia at the apparent end of the road, it’s not clear that they have any access to supplies.
One other thing that could be freed up by pushing Russia out of Nova Tarasivka: the railway between Kupyansk and the heavily disputed location of Kuzemivka (partrs of that town have traded hands twice in the last three days). That railway lies east of the highway at this location, so moving Russia from Nova Tarasivka could provide another route southeast in challenging weather.
Svatove and Kreminna are yet to be liberated, but just as in the case of Lyman, Ukraine is working the area, not just freeing locations, but obtaining control over different transportation routes.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 4:18:22 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
These are the areas where Russia is claiming to have made advances on Wednesday. At Yakolivka, Russian sources are claiming to have taken the town and moved on to the north. This is all completely unconfirmed and based on Russian sources. However, fresh fighting on the Bakhmut outskirts is certainly real.
Bakhmut Area. Open in another tab for a closer look.
Russia has made such claims in the Bakhmut area repeatedly, so it’s impossible to know the real situation until there are some reports from Ukrainian troops on the ground.
You know that today’s update has to start with this:
Everyone who has been following Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine from the beginning has had innumerable opportunities to see both the personal bravery of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the indomitable spirit of the Ukrainian people. In fact, there have been so many examples that it’s hard to select just a few for this morning.
Perhaps the best example of who Zelenskyy is and what he means to his nation didn’t come this week in his visit to the eastern front, or his visit to the liberated Kherson or Izyum. It happened right back in the opening days with a flat statement that absolutely defined who this man is and where he would stand over the course of the war. There’s a reason former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis said of Zelenskyy, “He is example in Leadership 101.”
YouTube Video
But Zelenskyy wasn’t given this recognition alone. His bravery and determination has been matched, and many times exceeded, by Ukrainian citizens at the front line, and sometimes in homes that have become the front line—but this one has to be in there. Reaching back to the very first day of the invasion, the Sunflower woman of Kherson still speaks for everyone.
Woman: “You’re occupants. You’re fascists. What the f**k are you doing on our land with all those guns? Take these seeds and put them in your pockets, so at least sunflowers will grow when you all lie down here.”
On the very first day Russian forces crossed into her hometown, this woman told them who they were and what would happen. There may be no finer question asked in this entire war than “What the f**k are you doing on our land with all those guns?”
Which is a good reminder of another statement from that same day.
YouTube Video
How did that go for you, Russian warship?
For over nine months, the spirit of the Ukrainian people and the soldiers on the front line has not faltered, in spite of artillery, missiles, and drones. In spite of massacres and torture chambers. In spite of an enemy that doesn’t just want them defeated, but destroyed as a people.
And to get everyone else into that spirit today...
YouTube Video
Last week, there were multiple reports that Russian forces were advancing south of Bakhmut, including numerous claims to have captured all of Optyne as well as a trio of villages further south. However, after a few days, many of those claims seem to have evaporated, with it becoming obvious that Russia had, at best, reached the outskirts of these locations, which remain in dispute.
On Wednesday, Russia is claiming to have made a sudden advance north of Bakhmut in the area of the smaller town of Bakhmutse, about 7km northeast of the city. They are also issuing claims of completely taking the town of Yakolivka even further to the north. None of this has so far been confirmed by other sources.
At the same time, Russian forces do seem to have reached the outskirts of Bakhmut once again, putting them almost exactly back where they were three months ago. Right now, both Ukraine and Russia have very large numbers of new troops in the area. Most of the Russian troops are freshly mobilized. Most of the Ukrainian troops have freshly arrived from the liberation of Kherson. Ukraine also has been seen moving a significant force of additional armor into the area.
There have been many statements on Telegram that the end of the year is another one of those “deadlines from Putin” where Wagner has been told to take Bakhmut or … that part isn’t clear. This would be just another in a string of such reported deadlines, none of which has apparently made any difference in the past. However, there is so much firepower crowded into the area around Bakhmut right now that it’s hard to believe the situation will remain the same kind of predictable meat grinder it has been for months.
The predictions range from Russia making a big breakthrough while Ukraine falls back to a new line, to Ukraine launching a counteroffensive that spears through the Russian line and heads deep into occupied areas of Donetsk—so you know none of these predictions is likely all that well informed.
In any case … stay tuned. Something may well break in the area within the next few days. (Or, you know, not.)
Yesterday, we covered the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airforce bases—and kos did a special shout-out to The New York Times for how “the paper of record” chastised Ukraine on being so “brazen” that it refused to roll over and die.
Expectations at the time were that Ukraine used modified Soviet-era Tu-141 “Strizh” drones to carry out these attacks, and evidence on the ground appears to go a long way toward confirming this. However, in the last 24 hours, there have been reports that Ukraine may have used the much smaller Tu-143 in striking back at Russian bases, and in particular, the attack that blew up a fuel facility at a base in Kursk (that fire is finally out, after burning for a full day).
The problem with the Tu-143 is that it’s not just smaller; it has a much shorter range of only about 200km. So how could a drone with a 200km range hit a target at least 500km inside Russia?
Well, when the Tu-143 was built in the 1970s, surveillance tech was so much more limited that it operated in a wholly different way than current drones. It was actually designed to carry cameras to the front lines and bring back film of the situation on the ground—like some of the early spy satellites that actually dropped film canisters back to Earth.
So to start with, that 200km range is round-trip, not one-way. Second, the drone not only carried a pod full of camera gear, but a parachute recovery system for its return (it wasn’t capable of actually landing in a conventional sense; it just got back to the home base and popped the chute). Strip all that out, and it’s not hard to believe another 100km or so of fuel couldn’t be squeezed in, along with explosives to make the trip worthwhile.
In any case, assuming the reports of the Tu-143 are correct, there are a lot more of these around than the far larger Tu-141s, and Ukraine is clearly getting good at modifying these old drones for new purposes.
Meanwhile, Russia responded again overnight with a wave of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones launched at targets across Ukraine. First, reports indicated that Ukraine managed to shoot down many of these drones, but Russia appears to have changed tactics and used some of the drones to hit smaller towns and villages that don’t have the dedicated air defense systems that are becoming more common in Ukrainian cities.
Sending out a missile, or even a $20,000 drone, to take down a house or barn in a country village doesn’t make a lot of sense in military terms. But don’t be surprised to see this become a bigger part of Russia’s strategy. After all, from their point of view, hitting a residence in a small village is still better than just having a drone shot down. Because at least someone is getting hurt.
And because you know I can never resist the dancing soldiers of Ukraine ...
Here’s one very big sign that Russia has rapidly depleted its supply of tanks, including those that had been rusting in what passes for storage.
India has actually built about 1,000 copies of the T-90S under license from Russia. Maybe Russia could go to India and check on importing some of their own tanks.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 5:02:08 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
One thing I missed when reviewing the list of sites shelled by Russia this morning: Ukraine has apparently taken two locations in that remaining sliver of Kharkiv oblast that was under Russian occupation.
Kupyansk Area. Open in another tab for a larger look.
These are the towns of Tavilzhanka and Bohdanivske northeast of the river crossing at Dvorichna. It’s unclear if Ukraine is still pushing north at this time. This area is only about a dozen kilometers from the Russian border, and I don’t see any reports of fighting up there … but then, I didn’t see any reports before these flipped into the morning report. Russia may be moving forces out of this little remaining sliver of Kharkiv to other locations, or Ukraine may be giving it more of a push, or both.
There are reports that fighting continues in the area between Yahidne and Nova Tarasivka. This appears to be a dead end position in terms of pressing on to the east, however there is Russian artillery there which has been used to exert fire control over the P07 highway. So clearing that out is a good thing. And with Russia at the apparent end of the road, it’s not clear that they have any access to supplies.
One other thing that could be freed up by pushing Russia out of Nova Tarasivka: the railway between Kupyansk and the heavily disputed location of Kuzemivka (partrs of that town have traded hands twice in the last three days). That railway lies east of the highway at this location, so moving Russia from Nova Tarasivka could provide another route southeast in challenging weather.
Svatove and Kreminna are yet to be liberated, but just as in the case of Lyman, Ukraine is working the area, not just freeing locations, but obtaining control over different transportation routes.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 4:18:22 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
These are the areas where Russia is claiming to have made advances on Wednesday. At Yakolivka, Russian sources are claiming to have taken the town and moved on to the north. This is all completely unconfirmed and based on Russian sources. However, fresh fighting on the Bakhmut outskirts is certainly real.
Bakhmut Area. Open in another tab for a closer look.
Russia has made such claims in the Bakhmut area repeatedly, so it’s impossible to know the real situation until there are some reports from Ukrainian troops on the ground.
You know that today’s update has to start with this:
Everyone who has been following Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine from the beginning has had innumerable opportunities to see both the personal bravery of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the indomitable spirit of the Ukrainian people. In fact, there have been so many examples that it’s hard to select just a few for this morning.
Perhaps the best example of who Zelenskyy is and what he means to his nation didn’t come this week in his visit to the eastern front, or his visit to the liberated Kherson or Izyum. It happened right back in the opening days with a flat statement that absolutely defined who this man is and where he would stand over the course of the war. There’s a reason former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis said of Zelenskyy, “He is example in Leadership 101.”
YouTube Video
But Zelenskyy wasn’t given this recognition alone. His bravery and determination has been matched, and many times exceeded, by Ukrainian citizens at the front line, and sometimes in homes that have become the front line—but this one has to be in there. Reaching back to the very first day of the invasion, the Sunflower woman of Kherson still speaks for everyone.
Woman: “You’re occupants. You’re fascists. What the f**k are you doing on our land with all those guns? Take these seeds and put them in your pockets, so at least sunflowers will grow when you all lie down here.”
On the very first day Russian forces crossed into her hometown, this woman told them who they were and what would happen. There may be no finer question asked in this entire war than “What the f**k are you doing on our land with all those guns?”
Which is a good reminder of another statement from that same day.
YouTube Video
How did that go for you, Russian warship?
For over nine months, the spirit of the Ukrainian people and the soldiers on the front line has not faltered, in spite of artillery, missiles, and drones. In spite of massacres and torture chambers. In spite of an enemy that doesn’t just want them defeated, but destroyed as a people.
And to get everyone else into that spirit today...
YouTube Video
Last week, there were multiple reports that Russian forces were advancing south of Bakhmut, including numerous claims to have captured all of Optyne as well as a trio of villages further south. However, after a few days, many of those claims seem to have evaporated, with it becoming obvious that Russia had, at best, reached the outskirts of these locations, which remain in dispute.
On Wednesday, Russia is claiming to have made a sudden advance north of Bakhmut in the area of the smaller town of Bakhmutse, about 7km northeast of the city. They are also issuing claims of completely taking the town of Yakolivka even further to the north. None of this has so far been confirmed by other sources.
At the same time, Russian forces do seem to have reached the outskirts of Bakhmut once again, putting them almost exactly back where they were three months ago. Right now, both Ukraine and Russia have very large numbers of new troops in the area. Most of the Russian troops are freshly mobilized. Most of the Ukrainian troops have freshly arrived from the liberation of Kherson. Ukraine also has been seen moving a significant force of additional armor into the area.
There have been many statements on Telegram that the end of the year is another one of those “deadlines from Putin” where Wagner has been told to take Bakhmut or … that part isn’t clear. This would be just another in a string of such reported deadlines, none of which has apparently made any difference in the past. However, there is so much firepower crowded into the area around Bakhmut right now that it’s hard to believe the situation will remain the same kind of predictable meat grinder it has been for months.
The predictions range from Russia making a big breakthrough while Ukraine falls back to a new line, to Ukraine launching a counteroffensive that spears through the Russian line and heads deep into occupied areas of Donetsk—so you know none of these predictions is likely all that well informed.
In any case … stay tuned. Something may well break in the area within the next few days. (Or, you know, not.)
Yesterday, we covered the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airforce bases—and kos did a special shout-out to The New York Times for how “the paper of record” chastised Ukraine on being so “brazen” that it refused to roll over and die.
Expectations at the time were that Ukraine used modified Soviet-era Tu-141 “Strizh” drones to carry out these attacks, and evidence on the ground appears to go a long way toward confirming this. However, in the last 24 hours, there have been reports that Ukraine may have used the much smaller Tu-143 in striking back at Russian bases, and in particular, the attack that blew up a fuel facility at a base in Kursk (that fire is finally out, after burning for a full day).
The problem with the Tu-143 is that it’s not just smaller; it has a much shorter range of only about 200km. So how could a drone with a 200km range hit a target at least 500km inside Russia?
Well, when the Tu-143 was built in the 1970s, surveillance tech was so much more limited that it operated in a wholly different way than current drones. It was actually designed to carry cameras to the front lines and bring back film of the situation on the ground—like some of the early spy satellites that actually dropped film canisters back to Earth.
So to start with, that 200km range is round-trip, not one-way. Second, the drone not only carried a pod full of camera gear, but a parachute recovery system for its return (it wasn’t capable of actually landing in a conventional sense; it just got back to the home base and popped the chute). Strip all that out, and it’s not hard to believe another 100km or so of fuel couldn’t be squeezed in, along with explosives to make the trip worthwhile.
In any case, assuming the reports of the Tu-143 are correct, there are a lot more of these around than the far larger Tu-141s, and Ukraine is clearly getting good at modifying these old drones for new purposes.
Meanwhile, Russia responded again overnight with a wave of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones launched at targets across Ukraine. First, reports indicated that Ukraine managed to shoot down many of these drones, but Russia appears to have changed tactics and used some of the drones to hit smaller towns and villages that don’t have the dedicated air defense systems that are becoming more common in Ukrainian cities.
Sending out a missile, or even a $20,000 drone, to take down a house or barn in a country village doesn’t make a lot of sense in military terms. But don’t be surprised to see this become a bigger part of Russia’s strategy. After all, from their point of view, hitting a residence in a small village is still better than just having a drone shot down. Because at least someone is getting hurt.
And because you know I can never resist the dancing soldiers of Ukraine ...