UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 · 6:55:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In addition to the explosions at the airport outside Berdyansk, there are now reported explosions underway at the airport in occupied Melitopol. Again, it’s unclear if this is preparatory to other actions, or intended to reduce Russian drone / missile attacks on civilian locations.
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 · 5:00:01 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia is claiming that it has counterattacked Ukrainian forces in the Serebryanskyy forest south of Kreminna with propagandists insisting that Ukraine has been dislodged from positions that were only 2km outside of Kreminna.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces are reporting that they are still advancing on all sides of Kreminna, following an earlier report that “good news” is expected in the area today.
We should know who is right very soon.
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 · 4:52:19 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Details are just now appearing of an assault Ukraine appears to have made in the Donetsk area several days ago. Ukraine forces, moving out of the town of Pervomaiske and toward the town of Pisky reportedly included about 15 vehicles and 50 soldiers.
Donetsk Area. Open in another tab for a larger view.
Unfortunately, though the assault did reportedly overrun some Russian positions and trenches, it seems to have become stuck west of Pisky after encountering a minefield and suffered significant losses. There doesn’t appear to have been any attempt to strike the minefield in advance of the movement, which could be either an intelligence or planning failure. While not a major assault, the number of vehicles and men involved certainly puts this above the kind of “feeling out” that both sides are undertaking regularly.
Like every event in this war, there’s likely more to this than a simple blunder, but it will be some time before we understand what happened.
This week, more of Russia’s most advanced tanks (or at least, the most advanced tanks that have ever done more than participate in parades), showed up in Ukraine. So far, Russia has lost 34 T-90A and T-90M tanks in their illegal invasion. Compared to the 352 documented T-80 variants that have been lost or destroyed, and the 1545 Russian tanks that Oryx has documented overall, that’s a pretty small fraction. But then, T-90s have been a small fraction of the tanks making it to Ukraine. Russia has supposedly built somewhere close to 1,000 tanks in the T-90 series, but it wasn’t until the summer that the first one turned up in Kharkiv—and was almost immediately destroyed.
So a batch of T-90 tanks showing up in Ukraine might seem significant for those pro-Russian advocates of the “finally, Russia is sending their good stuff, now Ukraine is going to get it!” school of wishful thinking. Only these particular tanks are not T-90A models or the more updated T-90M. These are T-90S tanks, a tank that Russia produces strictly for export.
Russia has previously shipped between 200 and 300 T-90S tanks to countries like Egypt and Vietnam, and those it has on hand were supposed to go to other military customers. Keeping up that flow of exports is important for two reasons: 1. Russia needs the cash, and 2. After the display that’s been going on in Ukraine, it’s not like new customers are lining up to get those fine Russian military products. So Russia really needs to ship these T-90S tanks to their new homes.
Instead, some of them are going into Ukraine. This speaks to nothing so much as the crunch Russia is under to put operational armor on the front line.
There’s also this little factor: the T-90S is significantly different than other tanks in the series. It has different electronics, different firing controls, and even a different engine. So using these tanks in the field requires having mechanics who are capable of servicing these systems, as well as a set of spare parts to deal with the inevitable breakdowns.
And if there’s anything that has really defined this war for Russia, it’s their skill with logistics.
Historian Kamil Galeev has produced some of the most incisive and thoughtful examinations of Russia’s motivations and behaviors during this invasion. Just three days into the conflict, he produced a genuinely deep and insightful review of “Why Russia will lose this war,” and his writing about the criminal culture within Russia and the level of corruption in the Russian military has been revelatory.
Galeev is back this week with more analysis of what happens when Russia loses the Ukraine invasion. What he expects going forward is that Russia is about to see a fracturing of its remaining empire. And have no doubt about it, Russia remains an empire.
For Galeev, the glue that holds that Russian empire together is a “mythos,” one that says that the Russian military is so superior to that of any potential breakaway component that there is no point in fighting, and one that warns any resistance to Moscow will result in horrific punishment—see Grozny for a reference example.
Moscow doesn’t see Ukraine as an independent nation they have invaded. They see it as another “rebel province” that has to be taught a lesson in standing up to the Czar. The problem for Moscow is that, in framing it that way, they are turning Ukraine into exactly the object lesson they don’t want the rest of a long-repressed empire to learn.
If Russia is unable to “crush” Ukraine, or at least keep its populace convinced that it can do so in the near future, the mythos that binds the empire together unravels. So does the empire.
As with all of Galeev’s threads, this one is worth reading in full. Even if you’ve been taking a break from visiting Twitter, break that fast long enough to go through the details here. At least enough to learn about why Siberia could be the key to world events that could echo over decades.
Berdyansk is down on the Azov coast, 70km west of Mariupol. It was also the location where Ukraine first hit Russian ships in harbor, taking out a landing ship and making Russia rethink the safety of its naval fleet. This time it’s the airport that’s been hit—and apparently hit hard.
While this attack on military planes at the Berdyansk airport is certainly reminiscent of how Ukraine repeatedly pounded the airport west of Kherson, this isn’t necessarily a sign of where Ukrainian forces mean to go next. That’s particularly true because Berdyansk has reportedly been one of the sites from which drones and Russian planes carrying missiles have been directing attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns. So this may speak a lot more to saving lives far from the front than to securing control over the air in advance of a ground attack.
This last week has seen a lot of examples of human portable anti-tank weapons at work again, very like the videos seen in the early days of the war. What do those two times have in common? Well, there’s a lot of mud, and there are very few leaves. So armored vehicles are largely confined to moving down well-established paved roads while remaining highly visible.
What do you get in those conditions?
St. Javelin at work.
This morning, the head of the Luhansk Oblast military administration made a statement on Telegram reporting Ukraine was advancing along the line between Svatove and Kreminna and that “good news from Luhansk Oblast is expected soon.”
Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, Russian forces have managed to capture the window factory and the city garbage dump. Seriously. That’s still how things are being measured at Bakhmut.
There continue to be reports of people expecting a more significant advance at Bakhmut. If it comes, it’s likely to be Ukraine making the motion, because there’s still no sign that Russia can put together an action larger than a couple of units. At the moment, the fire continues to be intense, with the usual exchange of artillery and the Russians sending waves of men forward, but nothing really seems to have changed in either tactics or scale.
In addition to the explosions at the airport outside Berdyansk, there are now reported explosions underway at the airport in occupied Melitopol. Again, it’s unclear if this is preparatory to other actions, or intended to reduce Russian drone / missile attacks on civilian locations.
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 · 5:00:01 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia is claiming that it has counterattacked Ukrainian forces in the Serebryanskyy forest south of Kreminna with propagandists insisting that Ukraine has been dislodged from positions that were only 2km outside of Kreminna.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces are reporting that they are still advancing on all sides of Kreminna, following an earlier report that “good news” is expected in the area today.
We should know who is right very soon.
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 · 4:52:19 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Details are just now appearing of an assault Ukraine appears to have made in the Donetsk area several days ago. Ukraine forces, moving out of the town of Pervomaiske and toward the town of Pisky reportedly included about 15 vehicles and 50 soldiers.
Donetsk Area. Open in another tab for a larger view.
Unfortunately, though the assault did reportedly overrun some Russian positions and trenches, it seems to have become stuck west of Pisky after encountering a minefield and suffered significant losses. There doesn’t appear to have been any attempt to strike the minefield in advance of the movement, which could be either an intelligence or planning failure. While not a major assault, the number of vehicles and men involved certainly puts this above the kind of “feeling out” that both sides are undertaking regularly.
Like every event in this war, there’s likely more to this than a simple blunder, but it will be some time before we understand what happened.
This week, more of Russia’s most advanced tanks (or at least, the most advanced tanks that have ever done more than participate in parades), showed up in Ukraine. So far, Russia has lost 34 T-90A and T-90M tanks in their illegal invasion. Compared to the 352 documented T-80 variants that have been lost or destroyed, and the 1545 Russian tanks that Oryx has documented overall, that’s a pretty small fraction. But then, T-90s have been a small fraction of the tanks making it to Ukraine. Russia has supposedly built somewhere close to 1,000 tanks in the T-90 series, but it wasn’t until the summer that the first one turned up in Kharkiv—and was almost immediately destroyed.
So a batch of T-90 tanks showing up in Ukraine might seem significant for those pro-Russian advocates of the “finally, Russia is sending their good stuff, now Ukraine is going to get it!” school of wishful thinking. Only these particular tanks are not T-90A models or the more updated T-90M. These are T-90S tanks, a tank that Russia produces strictly for export.
Russia has previously shipped between 200 and 300 T-90S tanks to countries like Egypt and Vietnam, and those it has on hand were supposed to go to other military customers. Keeping up that flow of exports is important for two reasons: 1. Russia needs the cash, and 2. After the display that’s been going on in Ukraine, it’s not like new customers are lining up to get those fine Russian military products. So Russia really needs to ship these T-90S tanks to their new homes.
Instead, some of them are going into Ukraine. This speaks to nothing so much as the crunch Russia is under to put operational armor on the front line.
There’s also this little factor: the T-90S is significantly different than other tanks in the series. It has different electronics, different firing controls, and even a different engine. So using these tanks in the field requires having mechanics who are capable of servicing these systems, as well as a set of spare parts to deal with the inevitable breakdowns.
And if there’s anything that has really defined this war for Russia, it’s their skill with logistics.
Historian Kamil Galeev has produced some of the most incisive and thoughtful examinations of Russia’s motivations and behaviors during this invasion. Just three days into the conflict, he produced a genuinely deep and insightful review of “Why Russia will lose this war,” and his writing about the criminal culture within Russia and the level of corruption in the Russian military has been revelatory.
Galeev is back this week with more analysis of what happens when Russia loses the Ukraine invasion. What he expects going forward is that Russia is about to see a fracturing of its remaining empire. And have no doubt about it, Russia remains an empire.
For Galeev, the glue that holds that Russian empire together is a “mythos,” one that says that the Russian military is so superior to that of any potential breakaway component that there is no point in fighting, and one that warns any resistance to Moscow will result in horrific punishment—see Grozny for a reference example.
Moscow doesn’t see Ukraine as an independent nation they have invaded. They see it as another “rebel province” that has to be taught a lesson in standing up to the Czar. The problem for Moscow is that, in framing it that way, they are turning Ukraine into exactly the object lesson they don’t want the rest of a long-repressed empire to learn.
If Russia is unable to “crush” Ukraine, or at least keep its populace convinced that it can do so in the near future, the mythos that binds the empire together unravels. So does the empire.
As with all of Galeev’s threads, this one is worth reading in full. Even if you’ve been taking a break from visiting Twitter, break that fast long enough to go through the details here. At least enough to learn about why Siberia could be the key to world events that could echo over decades.
Berdyansk is down on the Azov coast, 70km west of Mariupol. It was also the location where Ukraine first hit Russian ships in harbor, taking out a landing ship and making Russia rethink the safety of its naval fleet. This time it’s the airport that’s been hit—and apparently hit hard.
While this attack on military planes at the Berdyansk airport is certainly reminiscent of how Ukraine repeatedly pounded the airport west of Kherson, this isn’t necessarily a sign of where Ukrainian forces mean to go next. That’s particularly true because Berdyansk has reportedly been one of the sites from which drones and Russian planes carrying missiles have been directing attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns. So this may speak a lot more to saving lives far from the front than to securing control over the air in advance of a ground attack.
This last week has seen a lot of examples of human portable anti-tank weapons at work again, very like the videos seen in the early days of the war. What do those two times have in common? Well, there’s a lot of mud, and there are very few leaves. So armored vehicles are largely confined to moving down well-established paved roads while remaining highly visible.
What do you get in those conditions?
A Georgian Legion fighter with an FGM-148 Javelin fires at Russian tank pic.twitter.com/DEIbXEKWTK
— ТРУХА️English (@TpyxaNews) December 8, 2022
St. Javelin at work.
This morning, the head of the Luhansk Oblast military administration made a statement on Telegram reporting Ukraine was advancing along the line between Svatove and Kreminna and that “good news from Luhansk Oblast is expected soon.”
Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, Russian forces have managed to capture the window factory and the city garbage dump. Seriously. That’s still how things are being measured at Bakhmut.
There continue to be reports of people expecting a more significant advance at Bakhmut. If it comes, it’s likely to be Ukraine making the motion, because there’s still no sign that Russia can put together an action larger than a couple of units. At the moment, the fire continues to be intense, with the usual exchange of artillery and the Russians sending waves of men forward, but nothing really seems to have changed in either tactics or scale.