The first time that representatives from Ukraine and Russia met at the Belarus border was only four days after Vladimir Putin had sent roughly 70% of the Russian military charging into Ukraine. At that meeting, Ukraine made it clear what it wanted: for Russian forces to cease fire and withdraw. Russia also made it clear what they wanted: for Ukraine to stop fighting and surrender. Clearly, positions that amounted to “You surrender” and “No, you surrender” left a lot of room for negotiations.
Even so, there were some indications of progress. Soon after that, the idea of a sort of three-part settlement began to form. Ukraine would meet Russian demands for demilitarization by agreeing not to join NATO. It would agree not to host military bases for other countries. And Ukraine would agree to some form of “referendum” on Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk—though the details of that were vague. In exchange, Russia would do the things that Ukraine cared about, which was to stop murdering their people, blowing up their buildings, and occupying their land.
By the next time negotiators gathered at the border, there had been several back and forth messages carried through proxies like France’s President Emmanuel Macron. Reports indicated a 15-point plan with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating that things were “close to be agreed,” with it all coming down to “absolutely specific wordings.” By then, Russia seemed to have given up on the idea that they would remove Zelenskyy’s government, and some of the details in this plan seemed almost ludicrous, such as Russia’s demand for de-Nazification coming down to changing the names of some streets (some of which were changed just a couple of years ago as Ukraine ditched names they’d been saddled with by the USSR).
But as negotiators headed to a third round, this time in Istanbul, any real hope for a settlement seems as remote as it did when Russians in suits and Ukrainians in T-shirts first sat down to talk at the war’s beginning. That’s because Russia isn’t just making unreasonable demands over the status of land in southeast Ukraine, they’re not even agreeing on Step One of the plan.
The assumption from Ukraine was always that Russia’s demilitarization demand still left it open to joining some other plan for protection. That might not mean joining NATO, but it could mean joining some other organization, or at least having other nations volunteer that they would offer their forces in case Ukraine was attacked. However, on the opening day of negotiations at Istanbul, it became clear that’s not Russia’s position. They don’t just want Ukraine to stay out of NATO, they want Ukraine helpless, unarmed, and unprotected by any agreement with other nations.
In other words, a month later, with 15,000 Russian troops dead and 2,000 Russian vehicles destroyed, with Ukrainian forces recapturing areas around Kyiv and driving to the gates of Kherson, Russian demands are really where they were back on Feb. 28: They want Ukraine to surrender.
And Zelenskyy is not going to do that.
“The signals that we hear from the negotiation platform can be called positive. But these signals do not drown out the explosions of Russian shells,” said Zelenskyy in his Tuesday evening video message to the Ukrainian people. “We see all the risks. Of course, we see no reason to trust the words of certain representatives of a state that continues to fight for our destruction. Ukrainians are not naïve people. Ukrainians have already learned both during these 34 days of the invasion, and over the past eight years of the war in Donbas, that you can only trust a concrete result."
No matter what kind of claims Russia was making, the difference between their words and what was happening on the ground were stark.
"The enemy is still on our territory,” said Zelenskyy. “Shelling of our cities continues. Mariupol is blocked. Missile and air strikes do not stop. This is reality. These are facts.”
And when it comes to what kind of arrangement will protect Ukraine, Zelenskyy offered only one: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine, our intelligence, everyone who joined the defense of the state, is today the only guarantee of our survival ... A guarantee that works."
Russia may yet come back to the table with a proposal that at least allows talks to go forward. But that’s definitely not a guarantee.
Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos' The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld
Embedded Content
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:35:36 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is what Russia is talking about when they talk about a referendum; a vote, under the control of Russia, giving Russia permission to swallow part of another sovereign nation.
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:42:02 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
And Russia doesn’t mean to settle for just those areas that were under its control when the invasion was launched. For Ukraine, this is an all or nothing struggle.
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:46:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:58:07 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
One point on that bridge at Kherson. Blowing it up may prevent Ukrainian forces from immediately following up should they retake Kherson west of the river. However, moving troops across the river at a point further north isn’t nearly the increased difficulty for Ukraine that it represented for Russia. That’s because Ukraine would be moving their forces through friendly territory inside their supply lines.
Thursday, Mar 31, 2022 · 12:53:16 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
For the sake of the over 100,000 civilians still trapped in the city, let’s hope this is real. But don’t expect the military and territorial support forces to leave.
Even so, there were some indications of progress. Soon after that, the idea of a sort of three-part settlement began to form. Ukraine would meet Russian demands for demilitarization by agreeing not to join NATO. It would agree not to host military bases for other countries. And Ukraine would agree to some form of “referendum” on Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk—though the details of that were vague. In exchange, Russia would do the things that Ukraine cared about, which was to stop murdering their people, blowing up their buildings, and occupying their land.
By the next time negotiators gathered at the border, there had been several back and forth messages carried through proxies like France’s President Emmanuel Macron. Reports indicated a 15-point plan with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating that things were “close to be agreed,” with it all coming down to “absolutely specific wordings.” By then, Russia seemed to have given up on the idea that they would remove Zelenskyy’s government, and some of the details in this plan seemed almost ludicrous, such as Russia’s demand for de-Nazification coming down to changing the names of some streets (some of which were changed just a couple of years ago as Ukraine ditched names they’d been saddled with by the USSR).
But as negotiators headed to a third round, this time in Istanbul, any real hope for a settlement seems as remote as it did when Russians in suits and Ukrainians in T-shirts first sat down to talk at the war’s beginning. That’s because Russia isn’t just making unreasonable demands over the status of land in southeast Ukraine, they’re not even agreeing on Step One of the plan.
The assumption from Ukraine was always that Russia’s demilitarization demand still left it open to joining some other plan for protection. That might not mean joining NATO, but it could mean joining some other organization, or at least having other nations volunteer that they would offer their forces in case Ukraine was attacked. However, on the opening day of negotiations at Istanbul, it became clear that’s not Russia’s position. They don’t just want Ukraine to stay out of NATO, they want Ukraine helpless, unarmed, and unprotected by any agreement with other nations.
In other words, a month later, with 15,000 Russian troops dead and 2,000 Russian vehicles destroyed, with Ukrainian forces recapturing areas around Kyiv and driving to the gates of Kherson, Russian demands are really where they were back on Feb. 28: They want Ukraine to surrender.
And Zelenskyy is not going to do that.
“The signals that we hear from the negotiation platform can be called positive. But these signals do not drown out the explosions of Russian shells,” said Zelenskyy in his Tuesday evening video message to the Ukrainian people. “We see all the risks. Of course, we see no reason to trust the words of certain representatives of a state that continues to fight for our destruction. Ukrainians are not naïve people. Ukrainians have already learned both during these 34 days of the invasion, and over the past eight years of the war in Donbas, that you can only trust a concrete result."
No matter what kind of claims Russia was making, the difference between their words and what was happening on the ground were stark.
"The enemy is still on our territory,” said Zelenskyy. “Shelling of our cities continues. Mariupol is blocked. Missile and air strikes do not stop. This is reality. These are facts.”
And when it comes to what kind of arrangement will protect Ukraine, Zelenskyy offered only one: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine, our intelligence, everyone who joined the defense of the state, is today the only guarantee of our survival ... A guarantee that works."
Russia may yet come back to the table with a proposal that at least allows talks to go forward. But that’s definitely not a guarantee.
Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos' The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld
Embedded Content
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:35:36 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is what Russia is talking about when they talk about a referendum; a vote, under the control of Russia, giving Russia permission to swallow part of another sovereign nation.
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:42:02 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
And Russia doesn’t mean to settle for just those areas that were under its control when the invasion was launched. For Ukraine, this is an all or nothing struggle.
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:46:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 11:58:07 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
One point on that bridge at Kherson. Blowing it up may prevent Ukrainian forces from immediately following up should they retake Kherson west of the river. However, moving troops across the river at a point further north isn’t nearly the increased difficulty for Ukraine that it represented for Russia. That’s because Ukraine would be moving their forces through friendly territory inside their supply lines.
Thursday, Mar 31, 2022 · 12:53:16 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
For the sake of the over 100,000 civilians still trapped in the city, let’s hope this is real. But don’t expect the military and territorial support forces to leave.
️Russia announces ceasefire to evacuate residents of Mariupol. The Russian Ministry of Defense said a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, will begin at 10 a.m. on March 31st.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 31, 2022