The big news for now: Check out NASA FIRMS satellite imagery, designed to spot forest fires, but also great at tracking the front lines of a war. This is Kyiv and Chernihiv today:
What we’re seeing there is a whole lot of … nothing. The artillery has stopped. For comparison, here is imagery from a few days ago:
Russia actually pulled out. Its surrender in the Battle for Kyiv is complete.
While we still don’t have visual confirmation, this was reported earlier today:
Hostomel is just north of Bucha, the site of some of the most vicious fighting in this war. You might recall in the early days of the war, when Russia kept air-dropping airborne VDV forces at the airport, while still surrounded by enemy territory, costing Russia hundreds of dead paratroopers. Eventually, Russia’s land forces reached the airport and Bucha, and that’s where the assault was stopped, on the Irpin River, at the city of Irpin. (Rivers have been key to Ukraine’s survival during this war.)
Russia paid handsomely for Hostomel in blood, equipment, and treasure. Thousands are likely dead, including some of their most elite soldiers. And now? They’re walking away from it, defeated. It was either that or be wiped out as Ukrainian forces tightened their grip on the Bucha salient, and were close to completely cutting it off from its supply lines.
Russia’s attempt to save face is ludicrous on its face. They’ve claimed the retreat is a gesture of peace and goodwill, as negotiations go nowhere. They claim Kyiv was never a goal, but a diversion to make gains in the Donbas region.
If true, this would be the most inept and failed diversion in military history. Diversions aren’t supposed to tie up your best troops and cost thousands of lives while the main force remains bogged down in trench warfare. Yes, Russia made gains in other fronts, but they are being rolled back in the south and northeast, while Russia’s gains in the eastern Donbas front remain scant.
Look at all that yellow—territory Ukraine has recaptured from Russia. And the map above is already out of date, missing liberated towns south of Chernihiv. Ukraine has even clawed back some of Russia’s gains in that eastern front. So truly, if the Kyiv front was a diversion, it was an utter failure at … everything. It failed as an attack on Kyiv, it failed to tie down enough Ukrainian forces to prevent their successful defense of the war’s other fronts, and it failed to give Russia the major eastern victories that they now claim were their main focus of the war.
So what now? Russia will apparently move those elite Russian Airborne Forces (known as VDV) units from the Kyiv front to the Donbas front to face off against Ukrainians in trenches. Maybe they’ll send them to Izyum, which they hope to break to begin the encirclement of Ukraine’s army in Eastern Ukraine. Maybe they’ll go down to Mariupol, which still hasn’t fallen to Russia despite five weeks of encirclement and 95% destruction. Meanwhile, Ukraine will leave the defense of Kyiv to capable territorial defense forces, and also shift its regular army forces to other fronts.
Indeed, given the importance of Kyiv to the Ukrainian government, there was likely an outsized military defensive presence in the city. Freeing up those units may prove a net-positive for Ukraine when the final accounting of the war is tallied.
Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos' The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld
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Thursday, Mar 31, 2022 · 11:09:51 PM +00:00 · kos
Huge news: Nova Basan, the last major Russian-held town east of Kyiv, has been liberated.
The @War_Mapper map is looking better by the hour!
Those remaining red and orange pockets are being cleared out as we speak. Progress may be slower than expected, even if fully empty of Russians (and they haven’t been), because advancing forces have to clear the mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that likely litter roads, homes, and the countryside. But it’s happening.
Thursday, Mar 31, 2022 · 11:18:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A quick and dirty look at the relative ages of Russian tanks lost so far in Ukraine. For each type of tank, these are more or less the oldest the tanks could be. For example, the T-72A first entered service in 1979 (when U.S. military tagged the new tank with the code name “Dolly Parton”), but some form of T-72 has been in manufacture almost continuously right up until 2021. In fact, several of the other tank designations might as well be considered upgraded T-72s.
Over 5,000 T-72s were cranked off the line over the years, so even those tanks on the far left of this chart could be a lot younger than is indicated. They were just built to a rather old spec. There were quite a few iterations, and a lot of minor upgrades, but it can be tough to differentiate them from the charred hulls.
On the very far right of the chart is the T-80BVM. The designation may make it seem as if this tank should be older, but this particular version of the T-80 is heavily upgraded with new electronics, reactive armor, and much more modern weaponry. In fact, the “M” in the designation stands for “Modernized.” It first appeared in 2017. Military Today lists 62 of these tanks produced. 17 of those have been lost so far in Ukraine.
So it’s certainly not just older tanks that are getting lost in Ukraine. In fact, there’s not a lot of evidence that the newer tanks are faring any better than their ancestors.
Not on the chart at all are things like the T-80UM-2. There was only one (1) of these, and seemed to be a prototype. Until it showed up in Ukraine. Dead.
Friday, Apr 1, 2022 · 12:14:14 AM +00:00 · kos
And now, not a single fire around Kyiv.
NASA FIRMS satellite imagery
Even Nova Basan is clear, showing that Ukrainian gains are coming from retreating Russian troops, as opposed to combat.
Friday, Apr 1, 2022 · 12:21:41 AM +00:00 · kos
In fact, I haven’t seen Ukraine this quiet on FIRMS since the start of the war.
Nothing in Kherson, nothing in Chernhiv Oblast, nothing near Sumy, nothing near Kherson, some red dots (fires) in Mariupol, and Izyum, and then the Donbas front, but to a lesser degree than usual. (The fires in Donbas itself are likely agricultural.) Oh, some action is happening southeast of Zaporizhzia. Ukraine is claiming the recapture of several villages in the region, so that’s actual combat. Gains elsewhere are likely Russians simply slinking away in the night.
What we’re seeing there is a whole lot of … nothing. The artillery has stopped. For comparison, here is imagery from a few days ago:
Russia actually pulled out. Its surrender in the Battle for Kyiv is complete.
While we still don’t have visual confirmation, this was reported earlier today:
Hostomel is just north of Bucha, the site of some of the most vicious fighting in this war. You might recall in the early days of the war, when Russia kept air-dropping airborne VDV forces at the airport, while still surrounded by enemy territory, costing Russia hundreds of dead paratroopers. Eventually, Russia’s land forces reached the airport and Bucha, and that’s where the assault was stopped, on the Irpin River, at the city of Irpin. (Rivers have been key to Ukraine’s survival during this war.)
Russia paid handsomely for Hostomel in blood, equipment, and treasure. Thousands are likely dead, including some of their most elite soldiers. And now? They’re walking away from it, defeated. It was either that or be wiped out as Ukrainian forces tightened their grip on the Bucha salient, and were close to completely cutting it off from its supply lines.
Russia’s attempt to save face is ludicrous on its face. They’ve claimed the retreat is a gesture of peace and goodwill, as negotiations go nowhere. They claim Kyiv was never a goal, but a diversion to make gains in the Donbas region.
If true, this would be the most inept and failed diversion in military history. Diversions aren’t supposed to tie up your best troops and cost thousands of lives while the main force remains bogged down in trench warfare. Yes, Russia made gains in other fronts, but they are being rolled back in the south and northeast, while Russia’s gains in the eastern Donbas front remain scant.
Look at all that yellow—territory Ukraine has recaptured from Russia. And the map above is already out of date, missing liberated towns south of Chernihiv. Ukraine has even clawed back some of Russia’s gains in that eastern front. So truly, if the Kyiv front was a diversion, it was an utter failure at … everything. It failed as an attack on Kyiv, it failed to tie down enough Ukrainian forces to prevent their successful defense of the war’s other fronts, and it failed to give Russia the major eastern victories that they now claim were their main focus of the war.
So what now? Russia will apparently move those elite Russian Airborne Forces (known as VDV) units from the Kyiv front to the Donbas front to face off against Ukrainians in trenches. Maybe they’ll send them to Izyum, which they hope to break to begin the encirclement of Ukraine’s army in Eastern Ukraine. Maybe they’ll go down to Mariupol, which still hasn’t fallen to Russia despite five weeks of encirclement and 95% destruction. Meanwhile, Ukraine will leave the defense of Kyiv to capable territorial defense forces, and also shift its regular army forces to other fronts.
Indeed, given the importance of Kyiv to the Ukrainian government, there was likely an outsized military defensive presence in the city. Freeing up those units may prove a net-positive for Ukraine when the final accounting of the war is tallied.
Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos' The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld
Embedded Content
Thursday, Mar 31, 2022 · 11:09:51 PM +00:00 · kos
Huge news: Nova Basan, the last major Russian-held town east of Kyiv, has been liberated.
The @War_Mapper map is looking better by the hour!
Those remaining red and orange pockets are being cleared out as we speak. Progress may be slower than expected, even if fully empty of Russians (and they haven’t been), because advancing forces have to clear the mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that likely litter roads, homes, and the countryside. But it’s happening.
Thursday, Mar 31, 2022 · 11:18:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A quick and dirty look at the relative ages of Russian tanks lost so far in Ukraine. For each type of tank, these are more or less the oldest the tanks could be. For example, the T-72A first entered service in 1979 (when U.S. military tagged the new tank with the code name “Dolly Parton”), but some form of T-72 has been in manufacture almost continuously right up until 2021. In fact, several of the other tank designations might as well be considered upgraded T-72s.
Over 5,000 T-72s were cranked off the line over the years, so even those tanks on the far left of this chart could be a lot younger than is indicated. They were just built to a rather old spec. There were quite a few iterations, and a lot of minor upgrades, but it can be tough to differentiate them from the charred hulls.
On the very far right of the chart is the T-80BVM. The designation may make it seem as if this tank should be older, but this particular version of the T-80 is heavily upgraded with new electronics, reactive armor, and much more modern weaponry. In fact, the “M” in the designation stands for “Modernized.” It first appeared in 2017. Military Today lists 62 of these tanks produced. 17 of those have been lost so far in Ukraine.
So it’s certainly not just older tanks that are getting lost in Ukraine. In fact, there’s not a lot of evidence that the newer tanks are faring any better than their ancestors.
Not on the chart at all are things like the T-80UM-2. There was only one (1) of these, and seemed to be a prototype. Until it showed up in Ukraine. Dead.
Friday, Apr 1, 2022 · 12:14:14 AM +00:00 · kos
And now, not a single fire around Kyiv.
NASA FIRMS satellite imagery
Even Nova Basan is clear, showing that Ukrainian gains are coming from retreating Russian troops, as opposed to combat.
Friday, Apr 1, 2022 · 12:21:41 AM +00:00 · kos
In fact, I haven’t seen Ukraine this quiet on FIRMS since the start of the war.
Nothing in Kherson, nothing in Chernhiv Oblast, nothing near Sumy, nothing near Kherson, some red dots (fires) in Mariupol, and Izyum, and then the Donbas front, but to a lesser degree than usual. (The fires in Donbas itself are likely agricultural.) Oh, some action is happening southeast of Zaporizhzia. Ukraine is claiming the recapture of several villages in the region, so that’s actual combat. Gains elsewhere are likely Russians simply slinking away in the night.