Record-breaking temperatures were recorded in the UK in mid-July, bringing much of the country to a halt.
Coningsby in Lincolnshire reached 40.3°C on July 19, while the Met Office extended its amber warning for the longest period ever (six days) and released its first ever red warning for extreme weather.
Early predictions have already suggested there may be a similarly intense heatwave reaching Britain again in August – but just how accurate are they?
What does the Met Office say?
Temperatures will probably stay above average across the south of the UK for early August, which can prompt warm, hot or even very hot weather in summer, according to the Met Office.
However, further north, temperatures are likely to stay closer to average, where there is a greater chance of rain too.
It has not announced any specific temperatures for August so far.
What do other forecasters say?
Other climate models which correctly foresaw July’s heatwave have also suggested that temperatures could reach 40°C again in August.
A major US forecasting system has shown temperatures in Greater London and other parts of the East of England could reach those record-breaking levels again, while the south of England would hit high 30s.
However – the 40°C prediction has only come from two of the 31 forecasts that make up the Global Ensemble Forecast System used by US National Centres for Environmental Prediction modelling.
It did expect temperatures to reach 43°C though, not 40.3°C so it did miss the mark slightly.
Still, extreme heat is expected in August as the patterns in the forecast echo the weather predictions for July, ahead of the heatwave.
Don’t start panicking just yet
As the Met Office explains on its website, there is a reason why meteorologists are much more tentative when describing any kind of forecast beyond five days in advance.
“When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play – small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time.
“Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts.”
When approached about the Global Ensemble Forecast System, a spokesperson from the Met Office also urged the public to be wary about these early predictions.
They explained: “We air the usual caution of using single ensemble members from one model run, especially at this lead time.”
Why we should still expect more heatwaves in the near future
Even if there isn’t another heatwave in August, we should expect temperatures to climb in coming years – especially as the climate crisis is making heatwaves more intense, longer, and more frequent.
“In a climate unaffected by human influence, climate modelling shows that it is virtually impossible for temperatures in the UK to reach 40°C,” according to Met Office chief scientist professor Stephen Belcher.
However, the damage humans has done to the atmosphere, and the climate, means these temperature changes are much more likely.
“Under a very high emissions scenario we could see temperatures exceeding 40 degrees as frequently as every three years by the end of the century in the UK,” he said.
