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White House signals it may support new arms embargo after Saudi moves to boost Putin

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The United States' relationship with oil-producing Saudi Arabia has never risen to the status of "good," and soured considerably after the Saudi monarchy's murder of a Washington Post correspondent who criticized the regime. While it does depend somewhat on whether the current American president is or is not a sociopath, murdering journalists is allegedly something we still take quite seriously in our own diplomatic relations.

Last week's decision from OPEC Plus to cut world oil production, a move that boosts Vladimir Putin's campaign to produce an energy crisis in Europe of sufficient scope to force nations to reconsider the sanctions against Russia for their murderous invasion of Ukraine, is being met with particular fury. As OPEC nations are already underproducing, actual effects on world oil markets may turn out to be modest—but it is still seen as an explicit attempt by Saudi Arabia to assist fellow cartel member Russia in its war of conquest. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Menendez released a fuming response calling for the U.S. to "freeze all aspects of our cooperation" with the Saudi regime, including arms sales.

Now the Biden White House is signaling they are equally out of patience. As reported by The New York Times, National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby put a new public emphasis on that with comments on CNN, saying that President Biden has "been very clear that this is a relationship that we need to continue to re-evaluate."

When it comes to punitive measures being discussed, including the imposition of an arms embargo, "the timeline's now and I think he’s going to be willing to start to have those conversations right away," said Kirby.

The White House signaling that they're going to be "re-evaluating" the relationship between the United States and the authoritarian Saudi regime is a significant statement. It also comes after a series of actions by Saudi Arabia that put the interests of Russia and other bad actors above its alleged friendship with the United States. In addition to cooperatively boosting pressure against European sanctions against Russia's energy exports, the OPEC Plus attempt to yet again ratchet up oil prices is being widely seen as an attempt to tip American elections against Democrats in favor of the more dictatorship-friendly Republican Party.

It is not exactly a close-held secret that the Saudi regime would rather have Trumpites in power in America than the opposition. An absurd and brazenly political decision to kick a few billion dollars toward Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, a golf partnership that saw a Saudi tournament hosted at a Trump golf resort even as another Trump club was raided for above-top-secret national security documents Trump spirited out of the White House after his election loss, the eagerness of Trump's appointed Republicans to boost Saudi nuclear capabilities—the Saudi affinity for Trump's crooked authoritarian-backing version of politics has not been hidden.

The whole of the Saudi-American relationship is a hot mess, and crooked from its founding. Part of current U.S. administration ire is, alleges the Times, because after Biden went as far as to pay a diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia last July, "American officials said at the time that they had an understanding with Saudi Arabia that it would increase oil production in the fall and thus lower gasoline prices heading into the crucial congressional elections."

That stated link between advocating for lower consumer gas prices and the "crucial congressional elections" may be one drawn by the Times or one stated explicitly by American diplomats, but in any event Biden took a considerable political risk in his attempt to patch up relations only to have the Saudi government rebuff those moves in favor of assisting Putin. It's entirely possible that Biden is now, to use the relevant diplomatic jargon here, now extremely pissed off on a personal level at the Saudi monarchy's consistent siding against American interests.

Kirby's public announcement that the White House was indeed "re-evaluating" U.S. security arrangements with the Saudi government might only be a way to make the Biden administration's anger readily apparent. But it's more likely that Biden and his advisers see Saudi attempts to further constrict energy supplies so as to squeeze Europe as a non-ignorable attack on U.S. and European interests, and sees no way around an in-kind response.

Biden is known as an affable diplomat, but Dark Brandon is willing to cut a dude.

We'll soon know. Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Rep. Ro Khanna have introduced a new bill freezing all U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia for one year, including "spare and repair parts" and "technical and logistical support services." That's an extraordinary move. Will the Biden administration support it, or use it to propose a slightly less-strict embargo, or use it as cudgel to provide a few concessions from the authoritarian regime?

The Saudi regime has been brazenly boosting Trump and Putin's ambitions over democracies here and elsewhere. After the new White House attempted a risky reset that went nowhere, the current U.S. diplomatic team may have evolved past the notion that they can work things out with the bonesaw brigade. Good. The United States doesn't need these kinds of "friends."

After an eruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.

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