Boris Johnson’s plan to largely remove all coronavirus restrictions in England on June 21 could be derailed by the surge in cases of the Indian variant.
What is supposed to happen on June 21?
England is currently in stage two of the prime minister’s four stage roadmap for unlocking the country.
It is a process the government has said it wants to be “irreversible”.
Stage three, which will see people be allowed to meet up inside, indoor hospitality reopen and international travel return, is due to go ahead on May 17.
Stage four, due on June 21, is due to see all legal limits on social contact lifted. In effect it is expected to mark the end of lockdown.
But four ‘tests’ have to be met
In order for England to advance through the stages, the government has set four tests for itself.
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of the virus
It is number four, the risk from new variants, that has put the June 21 date in doubt.
The number of Covid cases
Data from Public Health England (PHE) has shown a rise in cases from 520 to 1,313 this week in the UK.
The agency said cases were “rising in the community” and it was assessing the impact and severity of the variant.
On Friday, Boris Johnson warned that the road map in June is in jeopardy, telling a Downing Street briefing that if the Indian variant turned out to be much more transmissible than other variants, the country could face “hard choices”.
The PM said: “I do not believe that we need, on the present evidence, to delay our road map and we will proceed with our plan to move to step three in England from Monday.
“But I have to level with you that this new variant could pose a serious disruption to our progress and could make it more difficult to move to step four in June.”
Later, he added: “This doesn’t mean that it’s impossible that we will be able to go ahead with step four.
“I don’t think that’s the case at all. But it does now mean there’s the risk of disruption and delay, and delay to that ambition, and we have to be utterly realistic about that.”
England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, told the briefing the variant was “quite widely seeded in a number of parts of England and indeed elsewhere in parts of the four nations of the United Kingdom”, and could overtake the Kent strain to become dominant in the UK.
What action is being taken?
One response being considered is bringing forward the date for a second dose of vaccine for eligible groups to increase protection.
The government is also looking at ways to flex the rollout of vaccines in the worst hit areas such as the North West, including vaccinating everyone in multi-generational households from 18-year-olds to grandparents.
More vaccine doses have been sent to Bolton, which has a particularly high rate of the Indian variant, while 800,000 PCR tests have been sent to 15 separate areas of the England, including parts of London and Merseyside.
There is no current evidence that vaccines do not work against the Indian variant, which is thought to be at least as transmissible as the Kent variant of the virus.
What do the experts say?
Minutes released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) from their meeting on Thursday said “it is highly likely that this (Indian) variant is more transmissible than (Kent) and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible”.
The experts warned there will be an even faster increase in cases if restrictions are lifted, suggesting a peak of infection can be expected after Monday’s easing, and certainly at step four of the road map in June, when all legal limits on social contact are due to end.
Sage said: “If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to (Kent), sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the road map in England indicate that it is likely that progressing with step three alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks).
“Progressing with both steps three and four at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak.”
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the “big question” was how many of people who are getting the Indian variant will end up requiring hospitalisation.
“And at the moment the hospitalisation rate doesn’t seem to be increasing yet, although if this becomes much more common we’ll almost certainly see some increase, so I think it’s certainly a concern,” he said.
“I think the step four is in doubt in June now, but we really need to see what impact it has on severe disease before we can really be certain.”
Asked why June 21 was in doubt, he added: “Well, because if the epidemic continues to increase, if the Indian variant of the epidemic continues to increase at the same rate as it has over recent weeks, we’re going to have a huge number of cases by June.
“The issue though is that because it seems to be spreading in unvaccinated younger people at the moment and not yet that much more active in older people, maybe we’ll be able to weather it and we’ll still be able to have the step four in June.
“But if that increases cases in elderly and starts to increase hospitalisations, and puts pressure on the NHS again then I think step four would be in doubt.”
