On Thursday, a federal district court struck down the congressional and legislative gerrymanders that Georgia Republicans enacted after the 2020 census, ruling that they illegally discriminated against Black voters in violation of the Voting Rights Act. The lower court gave the Republican-led legislature until Dec. 8 to redraw one congressional district and seven legislative districts to remedy this racial discrimination, though the GOP will assuredly appeal to reverse the ruling or delay any new maps until after 2024.
The court ordered the creation of a new congressional district that was majority Black or close to it in Atlanta's western suburbs, and the plaintiffs had previously proposed just such a map, which you can see compared to the GOP's gerrymander on the map at the top of this story. (Click here for a larger image, and see here for an interactive version). This plaintiff map would dismantle the solidly red 6th District, which is currently represented by GOP Rep. Rich McCormick; in its place would be an entirely new 6th due west of Atlanta that would become just over 50% Black and heavily Democratic.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted that Black Georgians accounted for nearly half of the state's population growth of over 1 million people between the 2010 and 2020 censuses. The Atlanta metropolitan area in particular has seen explosive growth from Black, Latino, and Asian American residents. Despite that increased diversity, the GOP's new congressional map failed to create a new district near Atlanta where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate, who would almost certainly be a Black Democrat.
Instead, Republicans gerrymandered the 6th District to flip it from blue to red. The old 6th had been a majority-white but highly educated suburban district directly north of Atlanta that Black Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath had flipped in 2018 and held in 2020. The previous district had backed Joe Biden 55-44 in 2020, but the GOP's new gerrymander radically reconfigured it into a district that Donald Trump would have won 57-42.
Campaign Action
The GOP’s new map prompted McBath to run next door in the safely Democratic 7th District, where she defeated Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux in the primary and continues to serve in Congress today. McCormick then easily flipped the revised 6th last year.
The court also struck down two state Senate districts in the southern Atlanta metro area, three state House districts in the southern and western suburbs of Atlanta, and two state House seats near the city of Macon further south.
Following the 2022 elections, Republicans hold a 9-5 majority in the congressional delegation, a 33-23 edge in the state Senate, and a 102-78 majority in the state House. While new Republican-drawn maps would likely remain too gerrymandered elsewhere in the state for Democrats to win majorities anytime soon, creating new VRA-protected Black districts could see Democrats flip several seats across these three maps.
Prior to last year's elections, the same federal court determined that the plaintiffs were "substantially likely to succeed," but it put the case on hold until after 2022 because the Supreme Court had suspended a similar ruling in Alabama while the GOP there appealed. However, the Supreme Court since issued a landmark ruling this past June that upheld a key part of the VRA and required Alabama to create a new congressional district for Black voters for next year, and the Georgia court's new ruling cited the Alabama decision extensively.
However, it's far from guaranteed that Georgia will have new districts in time for 2024. Republicans will almost certainly appeal to the conservative-dominated 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Any ruling there could in turn be appealed to the Supreme Court, which could add months-long delays.
Complicating things further is that it's not clear yet when candidates need to turn in paperwork to run for office: State election authorities recently told Daily Kos Elections they won't set the filing deadline for candidates looking to run in the May 21 primary until the end of this year, though in 2022 there were two-and-a-half months between the qualifying deadline and primary.
However, just as they did in Alabama and Louisiana last year, the high court's Republican-appointed majority has frequently let Republicans get away with illegal maps for at least one election cycle by dubiously claiming it's too close to the next election to implement any changes without causing too much disruption. Delays from the GOP's appeals could give the justices a pretext to do it again in Georgia and postpone any new maps until at least 2026 even if the plaintiffs ultimately prevail.
Nonetheless, if this ruling survives on appeal, Georgia would eventually have to create more districts to empower Black voters, which in turn could result in Democratic gains.
The court ordered the creation of a new congressional district that was majority Black or close to it in Atlanta's western suburbs, and the plaintiffs had previously proposed just such a map, which you can see compared to the GOP's gerrymander on the map at the top of this story. (Click here for a larger image, and see here for an interactive version). This plaintiff map would dismantle the solidly red 6th District, which is currently represented by GOP Rep. Rich McCormick; in its place would be an entirely new 6th due west of Atlanta that would become just over 50% Black and heavily Democratic.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted that Black Georgians accounted for nearly half of the state's population growth of over 1 million people between the 2010 and 2020 censuses. The Atlanta metropolitan area in particular has seen explosive growth from Black, Latino, and Asian American residents. Despite that increased diversity, the GOP's new congressional map failed to create a new district near Atlanta where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate, who would almost certainly be a Black Democrat.
Instead, Republicans gerrymandered the 6th District to flip it from blue to red. The old 6th had been a majority-white but highly educated suburban district directly north of Atlanta that Black Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath had flipped in 2018 and held in 2020. The previous district had backed Joe Biden 55-44 in 2020, but the GOP's new gerrymander radically reconfigured it into a district that Donald Trump would have won 57-42.
Campaign Action
The GOP’s new map prompted McBath to run next door in the safely Democratic 7th District, where she defeated Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux in the primary and continues to serve in Congress today. McCormick then easily flipped the revised 6th last year.
The court also struck down two state Senate districts in the southern Atlanta metro area, three state House districts in the southern and western suburbs of Atlanta, and two state House seats near the city of Macon further south.
Following the 2022 elections, Republicans hold a 9-5 majority in the congressional delegation, a 33-23 edge in the state Senate, and a 102-78 majority in the state House. While new Republican-drawn maps would likely remain too gerrymandered elsewhere in the state for Democrats to win majorities anytime soon, creating new VRA-protected Black districts could see Democrats flip several seats across these three maps.
Prior to last year's elections, the same federal court determined that the plaintiffs were "substantially likely to succeed," but it put the case on hold until after 2022 because the Supreme Court had suspended a similar ruling in Alabama while the GOP there appealed. However, the Supreme Court since issued a landmark ruling this past June that upheld a key part of the VRA and required Alabama to create a new congressional district for Black voters for next year, and the Georgia court's new ruling cited the Alabama decision extensively.
However, it's far from guaranteed that Georgia will have new districts in time for 2024. Republicans will almost certainly appeal to the conservative-dominated 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Any ruling there could in turn be appealed to the Supreme Court, which could add months-long delays.
Complicating things further is that it's not clear yet when candidates need to turn in paperwork to run for office: State election authorities recently told Daily Kos Elections they won't set the filing deadline for candidates looking to run in the May 21 primary until the end of this year, though in 2022 there were two-and-a-half months between the qualifying deadline and primary.
However, just as they did in Alabama and Louisiana last year, the high court's Republican-appointed majority has frequently let Republicans get away with illegal maps for at least one election cycle by dubiously claiming it's too close to the next election to implement any changes without causing too much disruption. Delays from the GOP's appeals could give the justices a pretext to do it again in Georgia and postpone any new maps until at least 2026 even if the plaintiffs ultimately prevail.
Nonetheless, if this ruling survives on appeal, Georgia would eventually have to create more districts to empower Black voters, which in turn could result in Democratic gains.