The 2022 election cycle closes out in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker square off in a runoff. Warnock led 49-48 in the first round on Nov. 8.
Results
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:13:24 AM +00:00 · Barbara Morrill
Continuing coverage can be found here.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:09:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
With 2.6 million votes counted, we are...for all intents and purposes...tied. Herschel Walker has a nominal lead of just 980 votes. So why are Republicans a bit down and Democrats confident?
Because of simple math: at this point, the five big Atlanta area blue counties (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett, and Henry) have about 575,000 votes left to count. The whole state? Probably 800,000 votes left in total, maybe 900,000 at most. You would much, much rather be Raphael Warnock right now.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:58:12 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
DeKalb County just dropped about 100,000 votes, which predictably broke immensely to Raphael Warnock. That has moved him back into the lead, with a lead of 22,000 votes (Warnock +0.9). And there are still about 550,000 votes left to count in the quartet of Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:53:13 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Walker has stretched his lead to 51-49, a raw vote margin of about 41,000 votes. But virtually none of that reservoir of 700,000 votes in a quintet of Democratic Counties (Cobb, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, and DeKalb) have even been touched. Feels like Walker is going to need a lot more than he has right now to pull this off.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:42:08 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
And just like that: Walker takes a small lead (7000 votes out of 2.1 million cast). Again, this is exactly what happened in both 2021 and in November. Smaller rural counties are much more likely to count their election day votes quickly, because (natch) there are fewer of them to count. Warnock still has a huge cushion waiting on him in Atlanta metro, including another 250,000 votes or so in DeKalb County, which is likely to split 80-20 for him (or better!).
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:37:28 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We’re now heading towards two million total votes, and Republican Herschel Walker has cut the lead for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to 51-49. HOWEVER, there are no less than 700,000 votes left to count in Democratic stronghold counties in metro Atlanta. This will likely look a lot like November (and the 2021 runoffs, for that matter) where the Republicans will claim a small lead for a short while, only to cough it up when more of those big urban counties report.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:14:40 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
All but a handful of counties have tallied at least some votes, and it looks like at least two dozen very red and rural counties have reported most of their votes. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s lead is now 53-47, but if there is cause for optimism, he has built a lead of over 115,000 votes with little vote tallied from DeKalb (only about 13,000 votes of an expected 250,000) and with a lot of deep red counties already having reported their votes.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:58:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We have roughly two-thirds of the state’s 159 (!) counties reporting at least some votes, and Raphael Warnock still leads 55-45. There is one large R-leaning county left to report (Forsyth County in exurban Atlanta), and two large D-leaning counties still to report (Henry County in metro Atlanta, and Macon-Bibb County).
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:41:02 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We are literally on the doorstep of a million votes tallied (999,999, at last check. No, really). And Raphael Warnock continues to lead Republican Herschel Walker. As more small red counties are chiming in, the margin has continued to tighten, but only marginally. Warnock still leads 55-45.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:28:49 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
More counties (mostly red ones) are chiming in with their early votes. As a result, Senator Raphael Warnock has seen his lead slide down to 58-42. However, Team Warnock can’t be too upset, given that we still have not seen the early vote from no less than five sizable Democratic strongholds, including Clarke (Athens), Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Muscogee.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:18:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We’re starting to see some larger counties drop their early vote totals. Notably, Fulton County reported to the benefit of Raphael Warnock and Cherokee County reported to the benefit of Herschel Walker. Ultimately, the larger populated counties (and the fact that this is blue-friendly EVs and VBMs) have pushed Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock to an early 64-36 lead with about 425,000 votes tallied.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:05:02 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Good evening, and welcome to the final piece of Election 2022! Georgia law necessitated a runoff when incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock came about one half of a point shy of a majority. A reminder—due to the large proportion of votes cast either early or by mail (which tend to skew Democratic), the earliest results available tonight may not bear much resemblance to the final outcome. So strap in, because it will be a while before we have definitive answers to this race, and to the final balance of power in the Senate.
Results
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:13:24 AM +00:00 · Barbara Morrill
Continuing coverage can be found here.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 2:09:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
With 2.6 million votes counted, we are...for all intents and purposes...tied. Herschel Walker has a nominal lead of just 980 votes. So why are Republicans a bit down and Democrats confident?
Because of simple math: at this point, the five big Atlanta area blue counties (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett, and Henry) have about 575,000 votes left to count. The whole state? Probably 800,000 votes left in total, maybe 900,000 at most. You would much, much rather be Raphael Warnock right now.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:58:12 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
DeKalb County just dropped about 100,000 votes, which predictably broke immensely to Raphael Warnock. That has moved him back into the lead, with a lead of 22,000 votes (Warnock +0.9). And there are still about 550,000 votes left to count in the quartet of Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:53:13 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Walker has stretched his lead to 51-49, a raw vote margin of about 41,000 votes. But virtually none of that reservoir of 700,000 votes in a quintet of Democratic Counties (Cobb, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, and DeKalb) have even been touched. Feels like Walker is going to need a lot more than he has right now to pull this off.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:42:08 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
And just like that: Walker takes a small lead (7000 votes out of 2.1 million cast). Again, this is exactly what happened in both 2021 and in November. Smaller rural counties are much more likely to count their election day votes quickly, because (natch) there are fewer of them to count. Warnock still has a huge cushion waiting on him in Atlanta metro, including another 250,000 votes or so in DeKalb County, which is likely to split 80-20 for him (or better!).
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:37:28 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We’re now heading towards two million total votes, and Republican Herschel Walker has cut the lead for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to 51-49. HOWEVER, there are no less than 700,000 votes left to count in Democratic stronghold counties in metro Atlanta. This will likely look a lot like November (and the 2021 runoffs, for that matter) where the Republicans will claim a small lead for a short while, only to cough it up when more of those big urban counties report.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 1:14:40 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
All but a handful of counties have tallied at least some votes, and it looks like at least two dozen very red and rural counties have reported most of their votes. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s lead is now 53-47, but if there is cause for optimism, he has built a lead of over 115,000 votes with little vote tallied from DeKalb (only about 13,000 votes of an expected 250,000) and with a lot of deep red counties already having reported their votes.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:58:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We have roughly two-thirds of the state’s 159 (!) counties reporting at least some votes, and Raphael Warnock still leads 55-45. There is one large R-leaning county left to report (Forsyth County in exurban Atlanta), and two large D-leaning counties still to report (Henry County in metro Atlanta, and Macon-Bibb County).
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:41:02 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We are literally on the doorstep of a million votes tallied (999,999, at last check. No, really). And Raphael Warnock continues to lead Republican Herschel Walker. As more small red counties are chiming in, the margin has continued to tighten, but only marginally. Warnock still leads 55-45.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:28:49 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
More counties (mostly red ones) are chiming in with their early votes. As a result, Senator Raphael Warnock has seen his lead slide down to 58-42. However, Team Warnock can’t be too upset, given that we still have not seen the early vote from no less than five sizable Democratic strongholds, including Clarke (Athens), Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Muscogee.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:18:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
We’re starting to see some larger counties drop their early vote totals. Notably, Fulton County reported to the benefit of Raphael Warnock and Cherokee County reported to the benefit of Herschel Walker. Ultimately, the larger populated counties (and the fact that this is blue-friendly EVs and VBMs) have pushed Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock to an early 64-36 lead with about 425,000 votes tallied.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Dec 7, 2022 · 12:05:02 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
Good evening, and welcome to the final piece of Election 2022! Georgia law necessitated a runoff when incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock came about one half of a point shy of a majority. A reminder—due to the large proportion of votes cast either early or by mail (which tend to skew Democratic), the earliest results available tonight may not bear much resemblance to the final outcome. So strap in, because it will be a while before we have definitive answers to this race, and to the final balance of power in the Senate.