The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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● NY-26: Democratic power-brokers in upstate New York tapped state Sen. Tim Kennedy for the forthcoming special election to replace Rep. Brian Higgins on Thursday, but while the move was widely expected, Kennedy will face one ornery obstacle on his road to a full term: former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray.
Because New York's laws governing special elections allow party leaders to pick nominees, Kennedy won't have to face a primary for the solidly Democratic 26th District just yet—but he will soon enough. McMurray, who twice came surprisingly close to flipping the old 27th District—which was as red as the 26th is blue—has a huge grudge against the local Democratic establishment in the Buffalo region and says he's going to run against Kennedy in the regularly scheduled election.
But Kennedy has won several very difficult primaries, including three in a row at the start of the previous decade.
Head over to Daily Kos Elections to read Jeff Singer's analysis of Kennedy's electoral career, and find out why McMurray has such a big chip on his shoulder.
● MI-Sen: The Glengariff Group's new survey for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV shows the Democratic frontrunner in this year's Senate contest, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, locked in tight races with three different Republicans, though with a large portion of respondents undecided:
The survey did not test any of Slotkin's intra-party rivals or the other Republicans campaigning in the Aug. 6 primary. The sample favored Donald Trump 47-39 over Joe Biden and by a larger 42-31 spread when third-party and independent candidates are included.
● Utah: With candidate filing now closed in Utah, the biggest question that's yet to be answered is whether Republican voters will nominate a replacement for Mitt Romney whose temperament matches the retiring one-term incumbent's, or whether they opt for a hard-right bomb-thrower like the state's senior senator, Mike Lee.
Jeff Singer explores that topic in a new piece that also analyzes the fields that have emerged in the state's races for governor and two of its four House districts, the 2nd and 3rd. Another factor affecting all these contests: April party conventions that, for many candidates, will determine whether they make the June primary ballot—or go home that same day.
Read more at Daily Kos Elections.
● NJ-Gov: Republican state Sen. Jon Bramnick says he'll have an "important announcement, probably around [Jan.] 27th." Bramnick told Politico in November he was "very likely" to run for governor in 2025, when Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy will be term-limited.
● WV-Gov: The News and Sentinel has compiled the totals from new fourth-quarter fundraising reports for all the major Republicans competing in the May 14 primary to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Jim Justice:
Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, who is the most prominent Democrat in the race, took in a paltry $4,000 and ended 2023 with $3,000 in the bank.
● CO-03: State Board of Education member Stephen Varela on Thursday announced he would campaign for the western Colorado seat that fellow Republican Lauren Boebert is giving up to run for a seat in the eastern half of the state. Varela, an Army veteran, argued that he's a "battle-tested conservative and former Democrat" who wants to stop "unbridled liberalism," but he's far from an ordinary convert.
9News' Kyle Clark writes that Varela has changed his party affiliations 18 times since 2011, including twice in one day in 2016. The candidate told Colorado Politics' Ernest Luning that he swapped parties as needed so he could vote in the primary of his choice, though even he was surprised by how often he'd done so. "Holy cow," he told Clark last year, "So bizarre, right?" He now insists, though, "I am and will continue to be a Republican."
However, the GOP's right flank may have more to be angry about than his ever-changing party affiliation. Luning notes that Varela co-founded an anti-Boebert group called Rural Colorado United that spent money against her in both the 2020 and 2022 general elections.
Varela ran for the state Senate in 2022 (as a Republican, we have to specifically note), but lost the general election 51-49 to Democratic incumbent Nick Hinrichsen. Party leaders picked him just after that loss to fill a vacant seat on the state Board of Education representing the 3rd Congressional District.
● GA-06: EMILY's List has endorsed 7th District Rep. Lucy McBath in her May 21 Democratic primary contest against Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson in the revamped 6th District, a suburban Atlanta constituency that doesn't include any of McBath's current constituents.
● IN-04: While GOP Rep. Jim Baird announced he would seek reelection in October, the local political tip-sheet Howey Politics still isn't convinced he'll ultimately run for a fourth term. Howey writes that it contacted Baird's office "to confirm that he still intends to run," but the congressman's team did not respond.
Indiana's filing deadline is a little less than a month away on Feb. 9, though Howey previously relayed speculation that Baird could drop out after winning the May 7 primary so party leaders could install his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, as the nominee in his stead.
Another Republican state representative, Craig Haggard, has also suggested he thinks the elder Baird might soon head for the exits. In November, Haggard said that he was forming an exploratory committee so that he could run whenever the incumbent ultimately retires.
● IN-08: Howey Politics reports that a quartet of Republican state lawmakers are considering bids to replace retiring GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon: state Sens. Greg Goode and Mark Messmer, and state Reps. Tim O’Brien and Cindy Ledbetter. Goode sounded unlikely to run for Congress in an interview with the Indiana Capitol Chronicle earlier in the week, though he didn't rule anything out. The rest have yet to comment.
● MN-02: Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab publicized an endorsement this week from former Rep. John Kline, a Republican who represented previous incarnations of the 2nd District from 2003 to 2017, for his campaign to take on Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Teirab launched his campaign in October, and he appears to be the only serious Republican campaigning for this 53-45 Biden seat in the Twin Cities suburbs.
● MO-03: State Sen. Travis Fitzwater tells the local ration station 939 that he's interested in running to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, a fellow Republican.
● OR-05: Willamette Week's Sophie Peel reports that three former staffers for Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner allege that her driver feared for his safety after two physical altercations with the candidate. The article follows an October piece in the Oregon Capitol Chronicle that reported that staffers from McLeod-Skinner's 2020 and 2022 runs claimed she had "yelled at and berated her staff," though there were no allegations of violence in that story.
The driver, who was not identified by name in WW's article, wrote to a fellow staffer days before Election Day, "I’m scared she’s gonna hit me. … She’s punched me a few times like while I was driving and it wasn’t in malice just to like alert me to a car or something but now it’s different." Peel writes the driver "confirmed the physical contact to WW, as well as the veracity of the text messages, but declined to comment further."
McLeod-Skinner, who is seeking a rematch with Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, accused one of her rivals in the May 21 Democratic primary, state Rep. Janelle Bynum, of being behind the allegations.
"To suggest that I would ever physically hit or harm a staffer is absolutely outrageous and categorically false, and unfortunately appears to be motivated and orchestrated by my opponent Janelle Bynum, her staff and her allies," McLeod-Skinner said. A former McLeod-Skinner adviser who has since advised Bynum told WW that the driver feared for his safety, but McLeod-Skinner doesn't appear to have provided any evidence that Bynum's camp is advancing the story.
McLeod-Skinner's wife, Cass McLeod-Skinner, also provided a statement saying the driver was removed before Election Day because he'd "repeatedly lied to Jamie and other staff, and I know through real-time accounts that he put Jamie in dangerous situations while driving."
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Leading Off
● NY-26: Democratic power-brokers in upstate New York tapped state Sen. Tim Kennedy for the forthcoming special election to replace Rep. Brian Higgins on Thursday, but while the move was widely expected, Kennedy will face one ornery obstacle on his road to a full term: former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray.
Because New York's laws governing special elections allow party leaders to pick nominees, Kennedy won't have to face a primary for the solidly Democratic 26th District just yet—but he will soon enough. McMurray, who twice came surprisingly close to flipping the old 27th District—which was as red as the 26th is blue—has a huge grudge against the local Democratic establishment in the Buffalo region and says he's going to run against Kennedy in the regularly scheduled election.
But Kennedy has won several very difficult primaries, including three in a row at the start of the previous decade.
Head over to Daily Kos Elections to read Jeff Singer's analysis of Kennedy's electoral career, and find out why McMurray has such a big chip on his shoulder.
4Q Fundraising
- PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): $3.6 million raised
- NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D): $5.7 million raised (in six months), $11.5 million cash on hand
- VA-Gov: Abigail Spanberger (D): $3.6 million raised (in 48 days), additional $1 million transferred, $3.6 million cash on hand
- AL-01: Jerry Carl (R-inc): $549,000 raised
- AZ-03: Yassamin Ansari (D): $300,000 raised
- AZ-08: Ben Toma (R): $340,000 raised (in two months)
- CO-03: Adam Frisch (D): $2.9 million raised, $5 million cash on hand
- MN-05: Ilhan Omar (D-inc): $1.6 million raised
- PA-01: Ashley Ehasz (D): $249,000 raised
Senate
● MI-Sen: The Glengariff Group's new survey for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV shows the Democratic frontrunner in this year's Senate contest, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, locked in tight races with three different Republicans, though with a large portion of respondents undecided:
- 38-37 vs. former Rep. Mike Rogers
- 36-36 vs. former Rep. Peter Meijer
- 36-38 vs. former Detroit Police Chief James Craig
The survey did not test any of Slotkin's intra-party rivals or the other Republicans campaigning in the Aug. 6 primary. The sample favored Donald Trump 47-39 over Joe Biden and by a larger 42-31 spread when third-party and independent candidates are included.
● Utah: With candidate filing now closed in Utah, the biggest question that's yet to be answered is whether Republican voters will nominate a replacement for Mitt Romney whose temperament matches the retiring one-term incumbent's, or whether they opt for a hard-right bomb-thrower like the state's senior senator, Mike Lee.
Jeff Singer explores that topic in a new piece that also analyzes the fields that have emerged in the state's races for governor and two of its four House districts, the 2nd and 3rd. Another factor affecting all these contests: April party conventions that, for many candidates, will determine whether they make the June primary ballot—or go home that same day.
Read more at Daily Kos Elections.
Governors
● NJ-Gov: Republican state Sen. Jon Bramnick says he'll have an "important announcement, probably around [Jan.] 27th." Bramnick told Politico in November he was "very likely" to run for governor in 2025, when Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy will be term-limited.
● WV-Gov: The News and Sentinel has compiled the totals from new fourth-quarter fundraising reports for all the major Republicans competing in the May 14 primary to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Jim Justice:
- Attorney General Patrick Morrisey: $536,000 raised, additional $29,000 transferred, additional $30,000 self-funded, $1.8 million cash on hand
- Former Del. Moore Capito: $270,000 raised, $1.2 million cash on hand
- Businessman Chris Miller: $123,000 raised, additional $100,000 self-funded, $3.7 million cash on hand
- Secretary of State Mac Warner: $58,000 raised, $165,000 cash on hand
Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, who is the most prominent Democrat in the race, took in a paltry $4,000 and ended 2023 with $3,000 in the bank.
House
● CO-03: State Board of Education member Stephen Varela on Thursday announced he would campaign for the western Colorado seat that fellow Republican Lauren Boebert is giving up to run for a seat in the eastern half of the state. Varela, an Army veteran, argued that he's a "battle-tested conservative and former Democrat" who wants to stop "unbridled liberalism," but he's far from an ordinary convert.
9News' Kyle Clark writes that Varela has changed his party affiliations 18 times since 2011, including twice in one day in 2016. The candidate told Colorado Politics' Ernest Luning that he swapped parties as needed so he could vote in the primary of his choice, though even he was surprised by how often he'd done so. "Holy cow," he told Clark last year, "So bizarre, right?" He now insists, though, "I am and will continue to be a Republican."
However, the GOP's right flank may have more to be angry about than his ever-changing party affiliation. Luning notes that Varela co-founded an anti-Boebert group called Rural Colorado United that spent money against her in both the 2020 and 2022 general elections.
Varela ran for the state Senate in 2022 (as a Republican, we have to specifically note), but lost the general election 51-49 to Democratic incumbent Nick Hinrichsen. Party leaders picked him just after that loss to fill a vacant seat on the state Board of Education representing the 3rd Congressional District.
● GA-06: EMILY's List has endorsed 7th District Rep. Lucy McBath in her May 21 Democratic primary contest against Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson in the revamped 6th District, a suburban Atlanta constituency that doesn't include any of McBath's current constituents.
● IN-04: While GOP Rep. Jim Baird announced he would seek reelection in October, the local political tip-sheet Howey Politics still isn't convinced he'll ultimately run for a fourth term. Howey writes that it contacted Baird's office "to confirm that he still intends to run," but the congressman's team did not respond.
Indiana's filing deadline is a little less than a month away on Feb. 9, though Howey previously relayed speculation that Baird could drop out after winning the May 7 primary so party leaders could install his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, as the nominee in his stead.
Another Republican state representative, Craig Haggard, has also suggested he thinks the elder Baird might soon head for the exits. In November, Haggard said that he was forming an exploratory committee so that he could run whenever the incumbent ultimately retires.
● IN-08: Howey Politics reports that a quartet of Republican state lawmakers are considering bids to replace retiring GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon: state Sens. Greg Goode and Mark Messmer, and state Reps. Tim O’Brien and Cindy Ledbetter. Goode sounded unlikely to run for Congress in an interview with the Indiana Capitol Chronicle earlier in the week, though he didn't rule anything out. The rest have yet to comment.
● MN-02: Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab publicized an endorsement this week from former Rep. John Kline, a Republican who represented previous incarnations of the 2nd District from 2003 to 2017, for his campaign to take on Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Teirab launched his campaign in October, and he appears to be the only serious Republican campaigning for this 53-45 Biden seat in the Twin Cities suburbs.
● MO-03: State Sen. Travis Fitzwater tells the local ration station 939 that he's interested in running to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, a fellow Republican.
● OR-05: Willamette Week's Sophie Peel reports that three former staffers for Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner allege that her driver feared for his safety after two physical altercations with the candidate. The article follows an October piece in the Oregon Capitol Chronicle that reported that staffers from McLeod-Skinner's 2020 and 2022 runs claimed she had "yelled at and berated her staff," though there were no allegations of violence in that story.
The driver, who was not identified by name in WW's article, wrote to a fellow staffer days before Election Day, "I’m scared she’s gonna hit me. … She’s punched me a few times like while I was driving and it wasn’t in malice just to like alert me to a car or something but now it’s different." Peel writes the driver "confirmed the physical contact to WW, as well as the veracity of the text messages, but declined to comment further."
McLeod-Skinner, who is seeking a rematch with Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, accused one of her rivals in the May 21 Democratic primary, state Rep. Janelle Bynum, of being behind the allegations.
"To suggest that I would ever physically hit or harm a staffer is absolutely outrageous and categorically false, and unfortunately appears to be motivated and orchestrated by my opponent Janelle Bynum, her staff and her allies," McLeod-Skinner said. A former McLeod-Skinner adviser who has since advised Bynum told WW that the driver feared for his safety, but McLeod-Skinner doesn't appear to have provided any evidence that Bynum's camp is advancing the story.
McLeod-Skinner's wife, Cass McLeod-Skinner, also provided a statement saying the driver was removed before Election Day because he'd "repeatedly lied to Jamie and other staff, and I know through real-time accounts that he put Jamie in dangerous situations while driving."
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