The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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● NY-03: Democrat Tom Suozzi will be returning to Congress after winning Tuesday’s special election to replace former Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the House in an unprecedented December vote.
Suozzi’s victory slices the GOP’s already slim majority even further. Following his victory, Democrats will hold 213 seats in the House to 219 for Republicans. Three more seats are vacant—one previously held by a Democrat and two that were held by Republicans. If, as is likely, all three seats are retained by the party that last held them in upcoming special elections, Democrats will need to flip just four more seats in November to take back control of the chamber.
Suozzi, who had held New York’s 3rd District for three terms before unsuccessfully running for governor in 2022, was leading Republican Mazi Pilip by a 55-45 margin with an estimated 73% of the vote tallied when we put the Digest to bed. Republicans ran a barrage of ads attacking Suozzi over immigration, but Democrats fired back by emphasizing Pilip’s opposition to abortion.
Democrats performed poorly in New York in the midterms, allowing Santos to flip the Long Island-based 3rd District as a political outsider with a fabricated resume. While party leaders protected him for the better part of a year, he eventually became the first Republican in history to be removed from Congress after federal prosecutors indicted him for fraud.
That expulsion paved the way for Suozzi’s comeback bid, which received much greater financial support than Pilip’s campaign. Democratic groups spent a combined total of $13 million to aid the former congressman while Pilip, a member of the Nassau County legislature, benefited from just $8 million in outside help. Suozzi also raised much more money, bringing in more than $4.7 million versus just $1.4 million reported by Pilip.
Suozzi will have to defend this seat again in November, when all 435 districts in the House will be up for reelection. After Pilip’s failure, however, Republicans may choose to go in a different direction in the June 25 primary for a full term. Republicans will also be left wondering whether their message stoking fears over immigration will be any more effective in the fall, while Democrats are certain to keep hammering the GOP on reproductive rights.
● AZ-Sen: The NRSC has endorsed far-right conspiracy theorist Kari Lake in her bid for Senate, despite her disastrous campaign for governor in 2022 that led to Democrats flipping Arizona's governorship. Democrats long ago rallied around Rep. Ruben Gallego, while Democrat-turned-independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema has yet to announce her plans.
● CA-Sen, AL-02: A trio of super PACs that have received almost $80 million in funding from cryptocurrency firms has started spending heavily in primaries in California and Alabama, according to a new report from the New York Times' Shane Goldmacher. The PACs' creation was first reported by Politico's Jasper Goodman in December.
The main PAC, called Fairshake, just launched a TV ad campaign attacking Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is running for Senate in California. According to AdImpact, the buy stands at $2.9 million, but Politico says the total expenditure "is expected to climb much higher."
The group's opening spot accuses Porter of deceiving voters about her opposition to taking corporate campaign donations, though as Goldmacher notes, it's not clear why she's become a target of crypto investors, apart from her general interest in financial regulation.
Meanwhile, another PAC, Protect Progress, has spent $750,000 to boost former Justice Department official Shomari Figures' congressional bid in Alabama. To date, it's been the only outside group involved in the Democratic primary in the new 2nd District, which was recently refashioned into a Black-majority seat by a federal court after it ruled that the state had violated the Voting Rights Act.
Goldmacher says that the new PACs' backers "are fairly open about their agenda": electing officials who will "ensure a favorable set of regulations" for the cryptocurrency industry.
That's a different approach from a previous effort by disgraced crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried, who spent heavily in races across the country in 2022 while insisting he was interested only in "pandemic preparedness."
However, as the Washington Post's Freddy Brewster reported, much of Bankman-Fried's activities were focused on ensuring lax regulation that would have benefited his now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange. Bankman-Fried was convicted of seven counts of fraud by a federal jury last year.
● MO-Gov: A new survey from Illinois-based Republican pollster ARW Strategies finds Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft taking 36% in the GOP primary for Missouri's open governorship, while Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel are tied at 13 apiece and 38% are undecided. The firm's principal, Andrew Weissert, says he is "[n]ot affiliated with any candidate, committee, or outside group."
A poll last month from Remington Research had Ashcroft leading Kehoe 34-20 while Eigel was at just 4%.
● AZ-06: Former conservative radio host Kathleen Winn is once again running against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and just earned an endorsement from the wife of former House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Biggs, who represents Arizona's 5th District.
Winn took a distant third in the 2022 GOP primary but spent $325,000 on that effort. She also had the backing of prominent far-right figures like Kari Lake and Joe Arpaio and had previously won elected office, albeit outside the district in Maricopa County.
Winn's candidacy, along with that of another MAGA fan, Brandon Martin, was apparently cause for concern for the GOP establishment, which was eager to flip the open 6th District. The Congressional Leadership Fund wound up spending more than $1 million to ensure Ciscomani, a prized recruit, earned the nomination.
In the end, Ciscomani prevailed by a 47-21 margin over Martin, who had been the GOP nominee in 2020; Winn ended up with 19% of the vote. In the general election, though, Ciscomani squeaked out an unexpectedly narrow 51-49 win over Democrat Kristen Engel, who is running again.
Democrats would love to face an extremist like Winn rather than Ciscomani, but Winn would probably need a boost from Democratic super PACs to have a real shot: She's raised barely $20,000 for her latest campaign while Ciscomani has more than $2.1 million in his coffers.
● CA-22: With three weeks to go before California's March 5 top-two primary, former Assemblyman Rudy Salas is going negative on his chief intra-party rival for the first time. And with Democrats fearful of getting kept out of the November general election, Republicans are also now getting involved in the race—likely to foment just such a lockout.
In Salas' new ad, he attacks state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, a fellow Democrat, on abortion. "She repeatedly refused to vote to protect a woman's right to make her own healthcare decisions," says a narrator. "And was officially labeled 'hostile' to reproductive freedom by California's leading abortion rights group."
As Politico's Lara Korte explains, NARAL Pro-Choice California gave Hurtado a "D" rating on its annual scorecard in 2022 after she missed nine votes on reproductive rights measures; the following year, she earned an "A-."
The Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, however, has just launched its own initial TV buy, which AdImpact says is for $116,000. No copy of any ads are available yet, but two Republicans, Rep. David Valado and far-right challenger Chris Mathys, could both wind up advancing to the general election if Salas and Hurtado split the potentially smaller Democratic primary electorate evenly.
Meanwhile, House Majority PAC, which has spent heavily to boost Salas, is airing a new Spanish-language spot that praises Salas for his efforts to keep a local hospital open and protect "women’s rights to control their own bodies," according to a translation.
● ND-AL: Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who reportedly is preparing a bid for North Dakota's open House seat, has now filed paperwork with the FEC to create a campaign committee.
● NJ-08: An internal poll for Rep. Rob Menendez obtained by the New Jersey Globe finds him beating Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the June 4 Democratic primary by a 46-24 margin, while businessman Kyle Jasey is a distant third with 6%. The survey, from Democratic pollster TargetSmart, argues that voters have not blamed Menendez for the alleged wrongdoing of his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, who was indicted last year on federal corruption charges: By a 73-16 margin, respondents say that that congressman "should not be punished for the actions of his father."
● VA-02: EMILY's List has endorsed Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal in her bid to unseat freshman GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia's 2nd District. Until recently, Cotter Smasal had the Democratic primary to herself, but attorney Jake Denton joined the race at the end of January.
Daily Kos is hiring! We are looking for a new managing editor to oversee our newsroom. The job offers excellent pay and benefits. Click here for full details, including how to apply.
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Leading Off
● NY-03: Democrat Tom Suozzi will be returning to Congress after winning Tuesday’s special election to replace former Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the House in an unprecedented December vote.
Suozzi’s victory slices the GOP’s already slim majority even further. Following his victory, Democrats will hold 213 seats in the House to 219 for Republicans. Three more seats are vacant—one previously held by a Democrat and two that were held by Republicans. If, as is likely, all three seats are retained by the party that last held them in upcoming special elections, Democrats will need to flip just four more seats in November to take back control of the chamber.
Suozzi, who had held New York’s 3rd District for three terms before unsuccessfully running for governor in 2022, was leading Republican Mazi Pilip by a 55-45 margin with an estimated 73% of the vote tallied when we put the Digest to bed. Republicans ran a barrage of ads attacking Suozzi over immigration, but Democrats fired back by emphasizing Pilip’s opposition to abortion.
Democrats performed poorly in New York in the midterms, allowing Santos to flip the Long Island-based 3rd District as a political outsider with a fabricated resume. While party leaders protected him for the better part of a year, he eventually became the first Republican in history to be removed from Congress after federal prosecutors indicted him for fraud.
That expulsion paved the way for Suozzi’s comeback bid, which received much greater financial support than Pilip’s campaign. Democratic groups spent a combined total of $13 million to aid the former congressman while Pilip, a member of the Nassau County legislature, benefited from just $8 million in outside help. Suozzi also raised much more money, bringing in more than $4.7 million versus just $1.4 million reported by Pilip.
Suozzi will have to defend this seat again in November, when all 435 districts in the House will be up for reelection. After Pilip’s failure, however, Republicans may choose to go in a different direction in the June 25 primary for a full term. Republicans will also be left wondering whether their message stoking fears over immigration will be any more effective in the fall, while Democrats are certain to keep hammering the GOP on reproductive rights.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: The NRSC has endorsed far-right conspiracy theorist Kari Lake in her bid for Senate, despite her disastrous campaign for governor in 2022 that led to Democrats flipping Arizona's governorship. Democrats long ago rallied around Rep. Ruben Gallego, while Democrat-turned-independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema has yet to announce her plans.
● CA-Sen, AL-02: A trio of super PACs that have received almost $80 million in funding from cryptocurrency firms has started spending heavily in primaries in California and Alabama, according to a new report from the New York Times' Shane Goldmacher. The PACs' creation was first reported by Politico's Jasper Goodman in December.
The main PAC, called Fairshake, just launched a TV ad campaign attacking Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is running for Senate in California. According to AdImpact, the buy stands at $2.9 million, but Politico says the total expenditure "is expected to climb much higher."
The group's opening spot accuses Porter of deceiving voters about her opposition to taking corporate campaign donations, though as Goldmacher notes, it's not clear why she's become a target of crypto investors, apart from her general interest in financial regulation.
Meanwhile, another PAC, Protect Progress, has spent $750,000 to boost former Justice Department official Shomari Figures' congressional bid in Alabama. To date, it's been the only outside group involved in the Democratic primary in the new 2nd District, which was recently refashioned into a Black-majority seat by a federal court after it ruled that the state had violated the Voting Rights Act.
Goldmacher says that the new PACs' backers "are fairly open about their agenda": electing officials who will "ensure a favorable set of regulations" for the cryptocurrency industry.
That's a different approach from a previous effort by disgraced crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried, who spent heavily in races across the country in 2022 while insisting he was interested only in "pandemic preparedness."
However, as the Washington Post's Freddy Brewster reported, much of Bankman-Fried's activities were focused on ensuring lax regulation that would have benefited his now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange. Bankman-Fried was convicted of seven counts of fraud by a federal jury last year.
Governors
● MO-Gov: A new survey from Illinois-based Republican pollster ARW Strategies finds Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft taking 36% in the GOP primary for Missouri's open governorship, while Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel are tied at 13 apiece and 38% are undecided. The firm's principal, Andrew Weissert, says he is "[n]ot affiliated with any candidate, committee, or outside group."
A poll last month from Remington Research had Ashcroft leading Kehoe 34-20 while Eigel was at just 4%.
House
● AZ-06: Former conservative radio host Kathleen Winn is once again running against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and just earned an endorsement from the wife of former House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Biggs, who represents Arizona's 5th District.
Winn took a distant third in the 2022 GOP primary but spent $325,000 on that effort. She also had the backing of prominent far-right figures like Kari Lake and Joe Arpaio and had previously won elected office, albeit outside the district in Maricopa County.
Winn's candidacy, along with that of another MAGA fan, Brandon Martin, was apparently cause for concern for the GOP establishment, which was eager to flip the open 6th District. The Congressional Leadership Fund wound up spending more than $1 million to ensure Ciscomani, a prized recruit, earned the nomination.
In the end, Ciscomani prevailed by a 47-21 margin over Martin, who had been the GOP nominee in 2020; Winn ended up with 19% of the vote. In the general election, though, Ciscomani squeaked out an unexpectedly narrow 51-49 win over Democrat Kristen Engel, who is running again.
Democrats would love to face an extremist like Winn rather than Ciscomani, but Winn would probably need a boost from Democratic super PACs to have a real shot: She's raised barely $20,000 for her latest campaign while Ciscomani has more than $2.1 million in his coffers.
● CA-22: With three weeks to go before California's March 5 top-two primary, former Assemblyman Rudy Salas is going negative on his chief intra-party rival for the first time. And with Democrats fearful of getting kept out of the November general election, Republicans are also now getting involved in the race—likely to foment just such a lockout.
In Salas' new ad, he attacks state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, a fellow Democrat, on abortion. "She repeatedly refused to vote to protect a woman's right to make her own healthcare decisions," says a narrator. "And was officially labeled 'hostile' to reproductive freedom by California's leading abortion rights group."
As Politico's Lara Korte explains, NARAL Pro-Choice California gave Hurtado a "D" rating on its annual scorecard in 2022 after she missed nine votes on reproductive rights measures; the following year, she earned an "A-."
The Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, however, has just launched its own initial TV buy, which AdImpact says is for $116,000. No copy of any ads are available yet, but two Republicans, Rep. David Valado and far-right challenger Chris Mathys, could both wind up advancing to the general election if Salas and Hurtado split the potentially smaller Democratic primary electorate evenly.
Meanwhile, House Majority PAC, which has spent heavily to boost Salas, is airing a new Spanish-language spot that praises Salas for his efforts to keep a local hospital open and protect "women’s rights to control their own bodies," according to a translation.
● ND-AL: Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who reportedly is preparing a bid for North Dakota's open House seat, has now filed paperwork with the FEC to create a campaign committee.
● NJ-08: An internal poll for Rep. Rob Menendez obtained by the New Jersey Globe finds him beating Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the June 4 Democratic primary by a 46-24 margin, while businessman Kyle Jasey is a distant third with 6%. The survey, from Democratic pollster TargetSmart, argues that voters have not blamed Menendez for the alleged wrongdoing of his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, who was indicted last year on federal corruption charges: By a 73-16 margin, respondents say that that congressman "should not be punished for the actions of his father."
● VA-02: EMILY's List has endorsed Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal in her bid to unseat freshman GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia's 2nd District. Until recently, Cotter Smasal had the Democratic primary to herself, but attorney Jake Denton joined the race at the end of January.
Ad Roundup
- CA-Sen: Adam Schiff (D)
- OH-Sen: Matt Dolan (R) - anti-Bernie Moreno (R)
- TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)
- AL-01: Barry Moore (R-inc)
- AL-01: Jerry Carl (R-inc)
- IL-12: Darren Bailey (R)
- NY-19: Empire State Voices - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc) (part of a "seven-figure" buy)