No Republican candidate chasing the party's 2024 nomination has more at stake than four-time indictee Donald Trump. His fate (and whether he ever sees the inside of a jail cell) could very likely depend on whether he manages to recapture the White House in November.
For Trump, every unexpected twist of the electoral cycle amps up the anxiety to excruciating levels. He needs to wrap up the GOP nomination quickly—hopefully by March, before he gets into the thick of his legal battles.
But one of the dangers lurking for Trump and fellow Republican candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is entirely out of their control, despite both campaigns having poured oodles of money into their ground games and GOTV operations in the early states.
Both candidates started out hot but have lost altitude (i.e., support) in polling since the initial months of the Republican primary kickoff. For DeSantis it was in Iowa, and for Trump it was New Hampshire. Specifically over the last month, both DeSantis and Trump have fallen roughly 3 points in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, according to 538 tracking of the polling aggregates.
As veteran Democratic campaign manager Joe Trippi explained on his podcast, “That Trippi Show,” losing altitude—especially late in the game à la Trump and DeSantis—means they likely have no idea who on their voter list now supports a different candidate.
Trippi said the Howard Dean operation faced this conundrum in Iowa after losing roughly a third of their supporters in the final couple weeks of the campaign.
"We had a big enough list of 'supporters' that if they all turned out we would win," he said, except some of them had switched horses.
Hypothetically speaking, Trippi explained that if a campaign had a list of 80,000 supporters they had amassed, it might randomly call 1,000 of those supporters a week out from voting.
"Sometimes, we would call a 1,000 of them randomly each night for the last 10 days," Trippi said, to check on how enthusiastic their "strong" supporters were. But what if you call them and find that 700 of them are still strong, but 300 of them are somewhere else on the support spectrum (e.g., might not caucus, might actually caucus for someone else, etc.)?
"Now, you've got a problem," said Trippi, because the campaign doesn't have time to call back all 80,000 on the list and they don't know which chunk of those supporters is gone.
"And at this point in the game, the only thing you can do now if you're Ron DeSantis is pull out every single one of his supporters," Trippi explained. "And so what happens is, you unwittingly help someone go by you because you're only pulling 60 to 70% of your support and you're actually turning out 20 to 30 points of someone else."
That's exactly the no-win situation Trippi believes DeSantis is facing Iowa and Trump is facing in New Hampshire.
"It is the scariest place to be right now if you're DeSantis' campaign manager in Iowa or Trump's campaign manager in New Hampshire," he said. "I suspect that those two campaign managers in those two states are having big doubts right now."
And if this scenario plays out, the candidate most likely to benefit is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose voter file and operations aren't as large in either state.
"How does she beat DeSantis in Iowa, how does she beat Trump in New Hampshire?" posited Trippi. "It turns out their 'stronger organizations' may actually be the people that get out enough of her vote—that she doesn't even know those voters exist."
In Iowa, DeSantis voters were likely looking for an alternative to Trump, so Haley stands a good chance of picking up some of his voters despite the two candidates having conflicting styles and policies. And as far as Haley is concerned, any vote that doesn't go for DeSantis is good for her because her main hurdle isn't beating Trump, it's beating expectations (which means beating DeSantis or else coming very close).
And in New Hampshire, any vote that doesn't go to Trump helps her. If the polling is accurate, Haley is in spitting distance of Trump, particularly after the exit of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. So Trump turning out voters that simultaneously increase the total of the entire electorate while shrinking his share is a good thing.
Trump is feeling the pressure. His closing message to his Iowa supporters is, “let's finish strong so we can wrap up this nomination quickly.”
“Don’t stay home, just please,” Trump told attendees at an Iowa rally last weekend. “The polls are showing we’re going to win by a lot. The worst thing you can do is say, ‘Let’s just stay home, Alice. Let’s watch it on television.’ We don’t want to do that. You gotta get out because the more we win by — we’re shooting for November because we want to send a message. We can’t be beaten.”
At another point, Trump yelled, “Pretend you’re one point down. You’re one point down. ... You have to get out, and you have to vote, vote, vote.”
If that sounds urgent, it probably is. Trump hopes to blunt any Haleymentum heading into New Hampshire, where Trump's campaign manager might be cowering under desk right now with a bottle of Jack Daniels.
Bottoms up!
Campaign Action
For Trump, every unexpected twist of the electoral cycle amps up the anxiety to excruciating levels. He needs to wrap up the GOP nomination quickly—hopefully by March, before he gets into the thick of his legal battles.
But one of the dangers lurking for Trump and fellow Republican candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is entirely out of their control, despite both campaigns having poured oodles of money into their ground games and GOTV operations in the early states.
Both candidates started out hot but have lost altitude (i.e., support) in polling since the initial months of the Republican primary kickoff. For DeSantis it was in Iowa, and for Trump it was New Hampshire. Specifically over the last month, both DeSantis and Trump have fallen roughly 3 points in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, according to 538 tracking of the polling aggregates.
As veteran Democratic campaign manager Joe Trippi explained on his podcast, “That Trippi Show,” losing altitude—especially late in the game à la Trump and DeSantis—means they likely have no idea who on their voter list now supports a different candidate.
Trippi said the Howard Dean operation faced this conundrum in Iowa after losing roughly a third of their supporters in the final couple weeks of the campaign.
"We had a big enough list of 'supporters' that if they all turned out we would win," he said, except some of them had switched horses.
Hypothetically speaking, Trippi explained that if a campaign had a list of 80,000 supporters they had amassed, it might randomly call 1,000 of those supporters a week out from voting.
"Sometimes, we would call a 1,000 of them randomly each night for the last 10 days," Trippi said, to check on how enthusiastic their "strong" supporters were. But what if you call them and find that 700 of them are still strong, but 300 of them are somewhere else on the support spectrum (e.g., might not caucus, might actually caucus for someone else, etc.)?
"Now, you've got a problem," said Trippi, because the campaign doesn't have time to call back all 80,000 on the list and they don't know which chunk of those supporters is gone.
"And at this point in the game, the only thing you can do now if you're Ron DeSantis is pull out every single one of his supporters," Trippi explained. "And so what happens is, you unwittingly help someone go by you because you're only pulling 60 to 70% of your support and you're actually turning out 20 to 30 points of someone else."
That's exactly the no-win situation Trippi believes DeSantis is facing Iowa and Trump is facing in New Hampshire.
"It is the scariest place to be right now if you're DeSantis' campaign manager in Iowa or Trump's campaign manager in New Hampshire," he said. "I suspect that those two campaign managers in those two states are having big doubts right now."
And if this scenario plays out, the candidate most likely to benefit is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose voter file and operations aren't as large in either state.
"How does she beat DeSantis in Iowa, how does she beat Trump in New Hampshire?" posited Trippi. "It turns out their 'stronger organizations' may actually be the people that get out enough of her vote—that she doesn't even know those voters exist."
In Iowa, DeSantis voters were likely looking for an alternative to Trump, so Haley stands a good chance of picking up some of his voters despite the two candidates having conflicting styles and policies. And as far as Haley is concerned, any vote that doesn't go for DeSantis is good for her because her main hurdle isn't beating Trump, it's beating expectations (which means beating DeSantis or else coming very close).
And in New Hampshire, any vote that doesn't go to Trump helps her. If the polling is accurate, Haley is in spitting distance of Trump, particularly after the exit of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. So Trump turning out voters that simultaneously increase the total of the entire electorate while shrinking his share is a good thing.
Trump is feeling the pressure. His closing message to his Iowa supporters is, “let's finish strong so we can wrap up this nomination quickly.”
“Don’t stay home, just please,” Trump told attendees at an Iowa rally last weekend. “The polls are showing we’re going to win by a lot. The worst thing you can do is say, ‘Let’s just stay home, Alice. Let’s watch it on television.’ We don’t want to do that. You gotta get out because the more we win by — we’re shooting for November because we want to send a message. We can’t be beaten.”
At another point, Trump yelled, “Pretend you’re one point down. You’re one point down. ... You have to get out, and you have to vote, vote, vote.”
If that sounds urgent, it probably is. Trump hopes to blunt any Haleymentum heading into New Hampshire, where Trump's campaign manager might be cowering under desk right now with a bottle of Jack Daniels.
Bottoms up!
Campaign Action