The Republican debate stage on Wednesday will be several candidates lighter as 2024 hopefuls who are not named Donald Trump duke it out for runner-up. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who's a little too fond of the U.S. Constitution for today's GOP, finally took the hint and ended his bid in the waning days of October.
What that translates to on stage is two candidates with a chance—Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley—alongside several low-polling bit players: Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and tech bro Vivek Ramaswamy.
But don't tell that to Scott, who still has enough cash banked to sustain a vanity bid and likely fancies himself vice presidential material. Scott has big plans to rough up DeSantis and Haley, according to a strategy memo obtained by Politico.
Ouch on that DeSantis hit. The truth hurts.
The biggest takeaway from the memo is the fact that Scott plans to do Trump's bidding—swiping at his two potential challengers while continuing his kid-glove treatment of the Republican front-runner himself. It's so 2016, a cycle in which Trump dominated the field as his challengers squabbled amongst themselves at the kiddy table.
And as long as we're asking tough questions: Does anyone believe that a guy who's polling at 6% in his home state (not to mention 1.6% nationally) has a path to the nomination?
The real contest will be the race for runner-up between Haley and DeSantis. A Haley strategy memo also obtained by Politico previewed some of the former South Carolina governor's barbs.
Haley's not wrong. Current polling shows her with a path through New Hampshire and South Carolina where DeSantis has none.
The wild card in the DeSantis-Haley matchup remains Iowa, where Haley recently got good news when she pulled even with the Florida governor at 16% in the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer. But two other October polls put DeSantis ahead of Haley by more than a handful of percentage points.
Perhaps the most interesting data point in the Hawkeye State is a potential weakening in Trump's dominance of the field. While Trump spent much of October at roughly 50% in 538's aggregate, he dropped back into the high 40s at the end of the month, while DeSantis continued idling at nearly 18% and Haley got a small uptick to 11.4%.
Whether any of those Iowa trends continue remains to be seen. But among the early states, Iowa is likely still the biggest wild card with the most meaningful punch. Iowa voters tend to break late—in the final month before the caucus—and they could make or break whether either Haley or DeSantis notches a finish meaningful enough to give their campaign fresh running room. Haley still has the benefit of being able to beat expectations (which were relatively low when she launched), while DeSantis continues to carry the weight of underwhelming a party that anticipated him being a fresher alternative to Trump.
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What that translates to on stage is two candidates with a chance—Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley—alongside several low-polling bit players: Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and tech bro Vivek Ramaswamy.
But don't tell that to Scott, who still has enough cash banked to sustain a vanity bid and likely fancies himself vice presidential material. Scott has big plans to rough up DeSantis and Haley, according to a strategy memo obtained by Politico.
Ouch on that DeSantis hit. The truth hurts.
The biggest takeaway from the memo is the fact that Scott plans to do Trump's bidding—swiping at his two potential challengers while continuing his kid-glove treatment of the Republican front-runner himself. It's so 2016, a cycle in which Trump dominated the field as his challengers squabbled amongst themselves at the kiddy table.
And as long as we're asking tough questions: Does anyone believe that a guy who's polling at 6% in his home state (not to mention 1.6% nationally) has a path to the nomination?
The real contest will be the race for runner-up between Haley and DeSantis. A Haley strategy memo also obtained by Politico previewed some of the former South Carolina governor's barbs.
Haley's not wrong. Current polling shows her with a path through New Hampshire and South Carolina where DeSantis has none.
The wild card in the DeSantis-Haley matchup remains Iowa, where Haley recently got good news when she pulled even with the Florida governor at 16% in the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer. But two other October polls put DeSantis ahead of Haley by more than a handful of percentage points.
Perhaps the most interesting data point in the Hawkeye State is a potential weakening in Trump's dominance of the field. While Trump spent much of October at roughly 50% in 538's aggregate, he dropped back into the high 40s at the end of the month, while DeSantis continued idling at nearly 18% and Haley got a small uptick to 11.4%.
Whether any of those Iowa trends continue remains to be seen. But among the early states, Iowa is likely still the biggest wild card with the most meaningful punch. Iowa voters tend to break late—in the final month before the caucus—and they could make or break whether either Haley or DeSantis notches a finish meaningful enough to give their campaign fresh running room. Haley still has the benefit of being able to beat expectations (which were relatively low when she launched), while DeSantis continues to carry the weight of underwhelming a party that anticipated him being a fresher alternative to Trump.
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