Before Russia’s Wagner mercenary group became famous in Ukraine, capturing Bakhmut by throwing wave after wave of prisoners against Ukrainian defenses, it was best known for war criming in Africa, violently propping up the most repressive regimes in exchange for mineral gold and diamond rights.
With yet another African government falling to a Russian-backed military coup, a regional armed war in Western Africa may soon break out.
Outside of Ukraine, Wagner mercenaries are currently deployed in Syria, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, and Madagascar. It is unclear how Wagner’s attempted rebellion in Russia has affected operations, but by all outward indications, its African operations remain unaffected.
Until recently, the mercenaries’ presence in western Africa was limited, but that has changed over the past two years. The area is bound by an economic and military alliance called ECOWAS—the Economic Community of West African States. Altogether, these countries are home to 400 million people. Nigeria is the lynchpin of ECOWAS, with a population of 224 million, far outpacing the next-most populous African country of Ethiopia, with 120 million.
Along with its economic, monetary, and diplomatic integration, ECOWAS has been extremely active as a peacekeeping force among its members, intervening in previous conflicts in Liberia (1990), Sierra-Leone (1997), Ivory Coast (2003), Guinea-Bissau (2012), and Mali (2013).
Dark green are ECOWAS member states, light green are currently suspended states
Since 2020,Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso have been suspended from ECOWAS. First came Mali, after a 2020 military coup (that was overthrown in 2021 by another military coup), then Guinea in 2021, and Burkina Faso after a series of military coups in 2022.
On July 26, Niger joined that coup group when its democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, was ousted by the commander of his presidential guard. One common thread among all four countries? Their respective militaries had all been using the services of the Wagner group. The quartet now makes up a kind of axis of evil in western Africa.
Russia has used anti-colonial sentiment to rile up African public opinion against the region’s old colonial powers. It’s notable that pre-suspensions, ECOWAS had 15 members—eight of them French-speaking, five of them English, two Portuguese, and one Arabic. The region’s colonial past run deep. Russia’s efforts have almost fully driven France out of the region, but Niger was an exception: It’s an important French and American military staging area for efforts to combat the violent Islamic Insurgency in the Sahel (you might remember the murderous Boko Haram).
The coup in Niger has obviously put a stop to those efforts, as the ruling junta has closed airspace, aside from some humanitarian flights. Unlike previous coups in its sphere, ECOWAS has been aggressive in demanding a return to civilian democratic rule in Niger. Sunday’s deadline for the coup leaders to stand downcame and went, as ECOWAS declared they’d give diplomacy a last chance. In reality, it needed more time to create a military reaction force—that’s now in place.
The ECOWAS force is 25,000 strong, with the bulk coming from Nigeria. Benin, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, and Senegal are also contributing troops. The military intervention has been endorsed by the U.S., France, and most importantly for those screaming about Western imperialism, the African Union, which represents the entire continent. For context, Niger’s armed forces numbered around 33,000, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studios, but we know that war isn’t about raw numbers. We also don’t know how much of Niger’s military backs the coup.
The Niger coup leaders have promised to murder Bazoum if ECOWAS intervenes. The military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso initially vowed to join Niger in the eventuality of an ECOWAS intervention, but seem to have backtracked for now. Neither country has the logistical and military sophistication to support that kind of deployment outside of their borders. And those who gain power by military force know how easy it would be for the next coup to depose them if they left themselves defenseless.
Meanwhile, the Wagner disinformation machine is in full force.
Given Europe’s horrendous colonial history in Africa, it’s not hard to rile up the population against France and the United States. The claims of “slave labor” may sound ridiculous, but in their full historical context, they land.
ECOWAS defense ministers will meet Saturday in Ghana, likely to plot next steps. There’s also a search for the participation of additional countries to lend any intervention greater international legitimacy.
Meanwhile, there are around 1,100 U.S. troops stationed in Niger, currently restricted to their bases. The Pentagon spent $110 million to build a drone base currently sitting idle, and in potential danger of facing the same fate as its Afghan bases.
“With a limited U.S. base presence in Africa – restricted to Djibouti and Niger – losing access to Base Aerienne 201 [Niger Air Base 201] would be a detrimental blow to U.S. and African joint efforts to counter violent extremist groups connected to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda operating in the area,” Jocelyn Trainer, a sub-Saharan Africa expert at the Center for a New American Security, told Task & Purpose. “This setback coincides with France diminishing its presence in the region. A reduced U.S. and French presence could create space for Wagner, or other actors, to fill a security vacuum.”
Russia may be struggling in Ukraine, but Africa has proven fertile ground to advance its interests. And as much as Russia plays on the West’s colonial history, it is Russia that now wants to plunder the African continent’s riches for itself, just as it’s trying to do in Ukraine.
Back in Ukraine, I wouldn’t want to be a Russian soldier in Urozhaine, currently the front line in Ukraine’s push toward Mariupol.
Yesterday I noted questions over whether a Ukrainian attack on Kozachi Laheri, across the Dnipro River southeast of Kherson city, was a real attack or a raid. Well, we’re now four days in, and Ukraine is holding part of the town.
There is fierce fighting in the town right now.
That certainly doesn’t feel like a raid to me. Taking the town would force Russia to make difficult decisions over where to deploy its reserves. The two sides are currently playing a game of chess, daring the other to react to probing attacks, with the Russians pushing hard toward Kupyansk in the north, and Ukraine causing mischief in Kherson oblast.
In the direction of Kozachi Laheri. A serious Ukrainian presence here would threaten both Melitopol’s western flank and Crimea
Meanwhile, the chatter about Robotyne is increasing to a fever pitch. The implication is that Ukraine will soon announce good news. I’ve seen nothing to confirm that is actually the case, but I’ve got my fingers crossed.
With yet another African government falling to a Russian-backed military coup, a regional armed war in Western Africa may soon break out.
Outside of Ukraine, Wagner mercenaries are currently deployed in Syria, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, and Madagascar. It is unclear how Wagner’s attempted rebellion in Russia has affected operations, but by all outward indications, its African operations remain unaffected.
Until recently, the mercenaries’ presence in western Africa was limited, but that has changed over the past two years. The area is bound by an economic and military alliance called ECOWAS—the Economic Community of West African States. Altogether, these countries are home to 400 million people. Nigeria is the lynchpin of ECOWAS, with a population of 224 million, far outpacing the next-most populous African country of Ethiopia, with 120 million.
Along with its economic, monetary, and diplomatic integration, ECOWAS has been extremely active as a peacekeeping force among its members, intervening in previous conflicts in Liberia (1990), Sierra-Leone (1997), Ivory Coast (2003), Guinea-Bissau (2012), and Mali (2013).
Dark green are ECOWAS member states, light green are currently suspended states
Since 2020,Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso have been suspended from ECOWAS. First came Mali, after a 2020 military coup (that was overthrown in 2021 by another military coup), then Guinea in 2021, and Burkina Faso after a series of military coups in 2022.
On July 26, Niger joined that coup group when its democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, was ousted by the commander of his presidential guard. One common thread among all four countries? Their respective militaries had all been using the services of the Wagner group. The quartet now makes up a kind of axis of evil in western Africa.
#Niger - Regional monitoring map (11 August 2023).
More details about the ECOWAS standby force are emerging. RFI reports it will be constituted of 25.000 troops, with most coming from
Nigeria.
Côte d'Ivoire announced it will commit up to 1100 troops. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/f0YY9d97lc
— Jules Duhamel (@julesdhl) August 11, 2023
Russia has used anti-colonial sentiment to rile up African public opinion against the region’s old colonial powers. It’s notable that pre-suspensions, ECOWAS had 15 members—eight of them French-speaking, five of them English, two Portuguese, and one Arabic. The region’s colonial past run deep. Russia’s efforts have almost fully driven France out of the region, but Niger was an exception: It’s an important French and American military staging area for efforts to combat the violent Islamic Insurgency in the Sahel (you might remember the murderous Boko Haram).
The coup in Niger has obviously put a stop to those efforts, as the ruling junta has closed airspace, aside from some humanitarian flights. Unlike previous coups in its sphere, ECOWAS has been aggressive in demanding a return to civilian democratic rule in Niger. Sunday’s deadline for the coup leaders to stand downcame and went, as ECOWAS declared they’d give diplomacy a last chance. In reality, it needed more time to create a military reaction force—that’s now in place.
The ECOWAS force is 25,000 strong, with the bulk coming from Nigeria. Benin, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, and Senegal are also contributing troops. The military intervention has been endorsed by the U.S., France, and most importantly for those screaming about Western imperialism, the African Union, which represents the entire continent. For context, Niger’s armed forces numbered around 33,000, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studios, but we know that war isn’t about raw numbers. We also don’t know how much of Niger’s military backs the coup.
The Niger coup leaders have promised to murder Bazoum if ECOWAS intervenes. The military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso initially vowed to join Niger in the eventuality of an ECOWAS intervention, but seem to have backtracked for now. Neither country has the logistical and military sophistication to support that kind of deployment outside of their borders. And those who gain power by military force know how easy it would be for the next coup to depose them if they left themselves defenseless.
Meanwhile, the Wagner disinformation machine is in full force.
Given Europe’s horrendous colonial history in Africa, it’s not hard to rile up the population against France and the United States. The claims of “slave labor” may sound ridiculous, but in their full historical context, they land.
ECOWAS defense ministers will meet Saturday in Ghana, likely to plot next steps. There’s also a search for the participation of additional countries to lend any intervention greater international legitimacy.
Meanwhile, there are around 1,100 U.S. troops stationed in Niger, currently restricted to their bases. The Pentagon spent $110 million to build a drone base currently sitting idle, and in potential danger of facing the same fate as its Afghan bases.
“With a limited U.S. base presence in Africa – restricted to Djibouti and Niger – losing access to Base Aerienne 201 [Niger Air Base 201] would be a detrimental blow to U.S. and African joint efforts to counter violent extremist groups connected to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda operating in the area,” Jocelyn Trainer, a sub-Saharan Africa expert at the Center for a New American Security, told Task & Purpose. “This setback coincides with France diminishing its presence in the region. A reduced U.S. and French presence could create space for Wagner, or other actors, to fill a security vacuum.”
Russia may be struggling in Ukraine, but Africa has proven fertile ground to advance its interests. And as much as Russia plays on the West’s colonial history, it is Russia that now wants to plunder the African continent’s riches for itself, just as it’s trying to do in Ukraine.
Back in Ukraine, I wouldn’t want to be a Russian soldier in Urozhaine, currently the front line in Ukraine’s push toward Mariupol.
Tank battles in the center of Urozhaine. Good news soon pic.twitter.com/uZrepvbFjL
— NOELREPORTS
(@NOELreports) August 11, 2023
Yesterday I noted questions over whether a Ukrainian attack on Kozachi Laheri, across the Dnipro River southeast of Kherson city, was a real attack or a raid. Well, we’re now four days in, and Ukraine is holding part of the town.
There is fierce fighting in the town right now.
That certainly doesn’t feel like a raid to me. Taking the town would force Russia to make difficult decisions over where to deploy its reserves. The two sides are currently playing a game of chess, daring the other to react to probing attacks, with the Russians pushing hard toward Kupyansk in the north, and Ukraine causing mischief in Kherson oblast.
In the direction of Kozachi Laheri. A serious Ukrainian presence here would threaten both Melitopol’s western flank and Crimea
Meanwhile, the chatter about Robotyne is increasing to a fever pitch. The implication is that Ukraine will soon announce good news. I’ve seen nothing to confirm that is actually the case, but I’ve got my fingers crossed.