Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell notched a win last week when his preferred candidate for the West Virginia Senate seat held by Democrat Joe Manchin officially filed papers to run.
McConnell has reportedly been courting West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a former Democrat, to seek Manchin's seat since last fall. The race is one of three that Republicans are training their sights on flipping in 2024 to retake the Senate majority.
To be sure, the entrance of Justice is a good bit better than McConnell fared last cycle, when he failed to entice potential GOP winners such as former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey or New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu into making a Senate bid.
But in spite of Senate Republicans eyeing a map to die for next year, their path to the majority is still rocky given the very sorry (not sorry) state of their party.
Days before Justice filed, for instance, his Club for Growth-backed GOP rival, Freedom Caucus member Rep. Alex Mooney, got an early lick in about the Democrat-turned-Republican.
“He’s a RINO. I’m the only conservative in this race,” said Mooney.
For those reasons and more, West Virginia is a complicated primary and could become a dogfight in a state that should otherwise be a slam-dunk pickup for Republicans.
The big question for Senate Democrats is whether Manchin decides to seek reelection, an announcement he has slated for December. If Manchin runs, a contentious Republican primary would undoubtedly work in Democrats’ favor.
Still, West Virginia is a relative bright spot for Republicans, who haven't been so lucky in other key pickup states. Republicans had hoped more Democratic incumbents would retire, creating immediate pressure points for Senate Democrats. No such luck. In the past few weeks, Montana's Jon Tester, Ohio's Sherrod Brown, Pennsylvania's Bob Casey, and Virginia's Tim Kaine have all announced their reelection bids, according to Roll Call. That puts Senate Democrats in a much better position than they were just one month ago.
Roll Call even floated the headline: Democrats' Senate forecast brightens? The question mark reflects some timidity about Democratic chances of keeping the majority given how GOP-friendly the ‘24 map is. Of course, the ‘22 midterm was also thought to favor Republicans until Trump and his MAGA base stepped in to select a slate of ridiculously awful general-election candidates.
But Senate Democrats have a realistic shot at surviving given Republican infighting and MAGA's continued death grip on the party. Senate Republicans are staring down potentially disruptive primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada—all states they hoped to put in play.
Senate Democrats are also lapping Senate Republicans in fundraising, with the Democratic campaign arm raising nearly $20 million in the first quarter this year, while its Senate GOP counterpart posted a flimsy $2 million in the same timeframe.
But Senate Republicans have yet another intractable deficit working against them that Senate Democrats don’t: Trump. The twice-impeached, criminally indicted GOP frontrunner almost single-handedly destroyed Senate Republicans' takeover chances last cycle.
McConnell and Senate GOP campaign chief Steve Daines of Montana both plan to play more heavily in the primaries this cycle to head off another Trump disaster. But if McConnell was the genius he is often made out to be by the press, he would have buried Trump's political future following Jan. 6 by finding the 17 votes to convict him.
Instead, the country is stuck with yet another Trump-dominated cycle in which Washington journalists will spill a gusher of ink slobbering over McConnell's supposed Jedi maneuvering. But the truth is McConnell and his extraordinary machinations helped land America in this dystopian nightmare, and it is once again offering Senate Democrats a chance at keeping their majority in a year when they should be running scared.
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Senate Republicans have a plan to deal with Trump's death grip in '24. Good luck with that
Senate Republicans seek secret sauce to neutralize Trump's glorious impact on GOP candidate quality
Can we have fairer, more representative elections in the U.S.? Absolutely, says Deb Otis on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Otis, the director of research at FairVote, tells us about her organization's efforts to advocate for two major reforms—ranked-choice voting and proportional representation—and the prospects for both. RCV, which is growing in popularity, not only helps ensure candidates win with majorities but can lower the temperature by encouraging cross-endorsements. PR, meanwhile, would give voters a stronger voice, especially when they're a minority in a dark red or dark blue area.
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McConnell has reportedly been courting West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a former Democrat, to seek Manchin's seat since last fall. The race is one of three that Republicans are training their sights on flipping in 2024 to retake the Senate majority.
To be sure, the entrance of Justice is a good bit better than McConnell fared last cycle, when he failed to entice potential GOP winners such as former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey or New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu into making a Senate bid.
But in spite of Senate Republicans eyeing a map to die for next year, their path to the majority is still rocky given the very sorry (not sorry) state of their party.
Days before Justice filed, for instance, his Club for Growth-backed GOP rival, Freedom Caucus member Rep. Alex Mooney, got an early lick in about the Democrat-turned-Republican.
“He’s a RINO. I’m the only conservative in this race,” said Mooney.
For those reasons and more, West Virginia is a complicated primary and could become a dogfight in a state that should otherwise be a slam-dunk pickup for Republicans.
The big question for Senate Democrats is whether Manchin decides to seek reelection, an announcement he has slated for December. If Manchin runs, a contentious Republican primary would undoubtedly work in Democrats’ favor.
Still, West Virginia is a relative bright spot for Republicans, who haven't been so lucky in other key pickup states. Republicans had hoped more Democratic incumbents would retire, creating immediate pressure points for Senate Democrats. No such luck. In the past few weeks, Montana's Jon Tester, Ohio's Sherrod Brown, Pennsylvania's Bob Casey, and Virginia's Tim Kaine have all announced their reelection bids, according to Roll Call. That puts Senate Democrats in a much better position than they were just one month ago.
Roll Call even floated the headline: Democrats' Senate forecast brightens? The question mark reflects some timidity about Democratic chances of keeping the majority given how GOP-friendly the ‘24 map is. Of course, the ‘22 midterm was also thought to favor Republicans until Trump and his MAGA base stepped in to select a slate of ridiculously awful general-election candidates.
But Senate Democrats have a realistic shot at surviving given Republican infighting and MAGA's continued death grip on the party. Senate Republicans are staring down potentially disruptive primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada—all states they hoped to put in play.
Senate Democrats are also lapping Senate Republicans in fundraising, with the Democratic campaign arm raising nearly $20 million in the first quarter this year, while its Senate GOP counterpart posted a flimsy $2 million in the same timeframe.
But Senate Republicans have yet another intractable deficit working against them that Senate Democrats don’t: Trump. The twice-impeached, criminally indicted GOP frontrunner almost single-handedly destroyed Senate Republicans' takeover chances last cycle.
McConnell and Senate GOP campaign chief Steve Daines of Montana both plan to play more heavily in the primaries this cycle to head off another Trump disaster. But if McConnell was the genius he is often made out to be by the press, he would have buried Trump's political future following Jan. 6 by finding the 17 votes to convict him.
Instead, the country is stuck with yet another Trump-dominated cycle in which Washington journalists will spill a gusher of ink slobbering over McConnell's supposed Jedi maneuvering. But the truth is McConnell and his extraordinary machinations helped land America in this dystopian nightmare, and it is once again offering Senate Democrats a chance at keeping their majority in a year when they should be running scared.
RELATED STORIES:
Senate Republicans have a plan to deal with Trump's death grip in '24. Good luck with that
Senate Republicans seek secret sauce to neutralize Trump's glorious impact on GOP candidate quality
Can we have fairer, more representative elections in the U.S.? Absolutely, says Deb Otis on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Otis, the director of research at FairVote, tells us about her organization's efforts to advocate for two major reforms—ranked-choice voting and proportional representation—and the prospects for both. RCV, which is growing in popularity, not only helps ensure candidates win with majorities but can lower the temperature by encouraging cross-endorsements. PR, meanwhile, would give voters a stronger voice, especially when they're a minority in a dark red or dark blue area.
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